Shots on target are so misleading

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  • Gaze73
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-14
    • 3291

    #1
    Shots on target are so misleading
    Simple logic says 0 shots = bet the under; shots from both teams = bet the over. And yet, some games end with 6 goals from 6 shots and some end with 0 goals from 20+ shots (I'm looking at you China you useless clowns). I understand that not every shot is equal but I'd expect at least one goddamn goal from 20 shots.

    Also when my pre-game stats say there will be a goal in the first half, it doesn't matter if there's 0 shots in 20 minutes, I confidently make the bet anyway and that goal will come from the first shot on target for some reason. But when my pre-game stats say half time draw, there will somehow be 0 goals from 8 shots on target.

    Betting on sides can be frustrating too, like the fav leads 5:0 on shots and yet the dog scores first with the first shot because of course.
  • VinagreSantos
    SBR Rookie
    • 07-04-15
    • 37

    #2
    Shots on Target are more of a medium/long term indicator, more "time series" oriented. It´s a decent indicator for profiling a team too (with others indicators).
    But on a reduced time scale, (90 minutes), can be deceitful. There´s too much variance that can influence the outcome (Chance Quality, Set Pieces vs Open Play, Distance, Number of defenders ahead, Opponents defensive ability, etc).
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