How sharp are Pinny's soccer line?

[KGambler]

OK, I know a bit more about soccer than your average US sports fan, which is to say I don't know much. I have been betting on soccer recently though, by betting at a poorly run book which does not move their lines in anything resembling a timely fashion.

I have been using the Pinnacle lines to determine the "fair line", and I have been doing this for almost 3 weeks now. I am getting absolutely clobbered. I am losing almost every game, and am hemorraging money on these bets. I have lost games at such an amazing clip that I am starting to question the underlying assumption of my system - that closing Pinnacle soccer lines are sharp.

Is it really possible that this clueless book has sharper lines than Pinnacle? All they really do is copy the opener, add a ridiculous amount of juice and then stand pat until someone starts betting into their stale lines. They have cut my limits (thank god ), but I have consistently lost money almost every single day for three weeks.

Can someone fill me in on how good Pinnacle's lines are for the various leagues/tournaments? Is it possible for any of these leagues/tournaments that the opening line is sharper than the closing line? It feels ridiculous to ask such a question, but I really don't know much about soccer betting. I am simply following a system.

Am I just running extremely badly? Honestly, it is getting hard for me to continue to believe that it is likely that I have just been unlucky. Not only am I losing, but many times the teams I am backing are getting blown out of the water. The teams I have backed have been outscored at an amazing clip

The edges I caclulate for my bets range from 1.5% to as high as 15%! I would guess the average calculated edge is in the neighborhood of 3.5-5%.

[mariomonte]

I have been using the Pinnacle lines to determine the "fair line", and I have been doing this for almost 3 weeks now. I am getting absolutely clobbered.

Pinnacle soccer lines are pretty sharp. If you want to use a reference line however, I'd suggest using an average of Pinnacle and the major Asias or even late Betfair odds.

It is probably best to wait some weeks, though. The current "Summer leagues" have very fluid lines and the results of any betting approach are more volatile than e.g. during the EPL season.

[KGambler]

Pinnacle soccer lines are pretty sharp. If you want to use a reference line however, I'd suggest using an average of Pinnacle and the major Asias or even late Betfair odds.

Does the "major Asias" refer to the sites which basically set the Asian Handicap lines? What sites would those be?

It seems to me that Pinnacle is the only site I have seen which offers low juice soccer lines. Surprisingly, the British sites seem to have a high overround. Does this sound right to you?

I will have to check out Betfair.

Thanks for the response.

[mariomonte]

It seems to me that Pinnacle is the only site I have seen which offers low juice soccer lines. Surprisingly, the British sites seem to have a high overround. Does this sound right to you?

The big Asian bookies (e.g. 12bet, SBOBet, 188bet) offer very low juice lines, so - like Pinnacle - they have to be sharp to still make money from them. They do react instantely to big and / or tagged bets, though, so I would suggest using aggregate odds for your purposes.

The "British" bookies target not the high stakes "sports investor" but the average "mug punter" who is happy about a 10% bonus on his 10 team parlay. With the exception of bet365 their soccer lines are ridiculous.