UEFA Qualifying: Betting Trends

[aljack]

So far in the 2019 Champions League Qualifications, the Draw has hit in 38% of the matches in which the underdog team is at higher odds than the draw. $100 bettors have gone 8-13, +$1496 so far, an ROI of +1.78% per wager and a net +$71 per $100 bet – win or lose. Betting the draw in this scenario blindly may be for thrill seekers, but it is worth a shot at a stern 4.5% stake. Make it count.


Overall, the DRAW has hit in 36% of matches so far in 2019 Champions League Qualifications. $100 bettors have gone 9-16, +$1443 backing the draw blindly in every game. An ROI of +1.44%, $100 bettors have netted +$58 per bet – win or lose.


Blindly betting the draw is a firm investment in the UCL qualifiers. Overall in 2018, the DRAW his at 36.8%, going 32-55, +25.47u, an ROI of +0.73% per bet and $100 bettors netted +$29 per wager – win or lose. Take a shot at the draw across the board once again at a 3.5% stake.

In the 2018 Europa League Qualifications, the Draw hit at a 39% rate in matches in which the home team was between a -143 and -101 favorite. $100 bettors went 11-17, +$910, an ROI of +0.81% per bet and a net +$33 per wager – win or lose. Backing the draw in this scenario in 2019 is worth a shot across the board at a 2% stake.

More to come...

[aljack]

In 2018 Champions League qualifying, the short home favorite (-143 to -101) went to the draw in 44% of their matches. Backers of the draw in this scenario went 4-5, +5.06u, an ROI of +1.41% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$56 per bet win or lose. CFR Cluj is a -104 favorite to Maccabi Tel Aviv, the draw is +226. Staking 3.5% on the draw is worth a shot considering last year's numbers in this spot.

[aljack]

So far in 2019 Champions League Qualifying. The Road teams have won 35% of the games played.Backers of the road team have gone 14-26, +13.63u, an ROI of +0.85% per wager and earning +$34 per $100 bet win or lose. Based on my ROI chart the road team currently should be getting a 2.13% stake. However, last year's road team record is a different story. The road team in 2018 qualifying finished 23-68, -33.62u, an ROI of -0.92% per wager and a loss of -$37 per $100 win or lose. So it is obvious that there is some regression about to occur in this spot.
What is different from last year is that at no point in 2018 did the road team net a profit after a full day's slate of games. Here in 2019 after 7 seperate days of competition, the road team is profitable at +13.63units. It is possible that the road team is being undervalued because of how bad they finished overall last year, and thus the draw and home teams are becoming a more expensive bet to make at less value.
The solution is to simply reduce the recommended stake of 2.13% in half to 1.06%, if regression hits - we are prepared. If the road teams trend continues, we will survive another day and know that there may be something to this current pattern in the market. Let's see! Stake 1.06% on the road team in UCL today!

[aljack]

In 9 games during last year’s Champions League qualifying, the draw hit in 44% of matches in which the home team was a short favorite between -143 and -101.
Backing the draw last year in this scenario bettors went: 4-5, +5.06u an ROI of +1.41% per wager and +$56 per bet win or lose. Backing the draw in this scenario in 2019 has been profitable so far but with a small sample size going 3-1 so far. There should be no hesitation staking at 3.5% on the draw in the same scenario in 2019.
Betting the Draw in Champions League qualifying has been a profitable venture for many years. Last year, backing the draw in every match during UCL qualifying.

Bettors went 32-55, +25.47u, an ROI of +0.73% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$29 per bet win or lose.
As we are about 67% of the way through the qualifying stages and the draw is only sitting at 15-44, +0.45u in 2019. Expect some serious positive progress and profits to come in the coming ties ahead. Last year, from the semi-finals of qualification onto the start of group stage. The draw hit at 50% in the 32 games played. Bettors backing the draw from the semi-finals on went 16-16, +26.19u.

So it is in your best interest to anticipate this trend to become exponentially profitable over the next 4 sets of matches in the next month. But do not over invest on this angle until we you see substantial proof that the draw is on the rise. The most appropriate stake to ride the draws in UCL is at about 1.8% stake. Now load up and let’s chase those draws!
In Europa League qualifying, one of the biggest money making trends last year was the home team. In 2018 qualifying the home team won 49% of the matches, bettors backing the home side went 154-157, +11.16u, an ROI of +0.09% per wager and $100 bettors were netting +$4 per bet win or lose. However, the same can not be said about 2019. Through 64% of the qualification round, the home team has won 47% of the matches, but it looks like the secret is out. Bettors backing the home side this year have went 95-105, -32.48u, $100 bettors are losing $16 per bet win or lose backing the home side. A losing side to be on overall, but there is some progress to be expected as we approach the final legs of qualifying and reach the group stage. Just to try and catch this trend on the upside of things, a simple 1% stake on the home side in Europa is worth a shot across the board.