Question : Make sense to hedge a bet with a "Draw" bet?

[looneytunes67]

The book I use uses a 3 way money line on soccer bets. Only the first 90 minutes "count" including stoppage time (not extra time). So if you pick a side and the first 90 minutes ends in a draw , you lose the bet.

For example, say the lines for tomorrow's FIFA women's wolrd cup game are as follows:

ITALY +100

CHINA +280

DRAW +210

I like Italy so I wager $500 on Italy to win. Even money.

Does it make any sense to also throw $100 on the draw as a hedge?

Thanks.

[looneytunes67]

Trying again to get an answer from anyone who bets soccer on a regular basis.

If you bet a large amount on a side (moneyline), do you sometimes hedge by betting the draw so you get something back?

Especially if you anticipate a tight game and a draw is conceivable.

Anyone?

[cashin81]

Not really. you arent really in a position to hedge. if the team takes the lead, then ure in position and hedge becomes an option.

Not too much wrong in doing so, but you wont be at an advantage either.

You can play it safe with draw no bet, if a team is at +100 then draw no bet will be around -250 i think. but again that wont mean you are at an advantage.

[JIMC0911]

THE DRAW NO BET (PICK'EM) IS A GOOD OPTION.

[Baraldsson]

ITALY +100
CHINA +280
DRAW +210
I like Italy so I wager $500 on Italy to win. Even money.
Does it make any sense to also throw $100 on the draw as a hedge?

As others have said, DRAW NO BET would be your better option here.

Working with the figures in your example, if you throw $100 on the draw as a hedge, you'll still lose $290 if the game ends in a draw. If you're going to hedge, in my opinion you need to at least break even on the draw. Problem is, you'd need to bet almost $240 on the draw in that case, which obviously means you'd lose $740 if the worst happened and your team lost the match.

Incidentally, if you bet $322 on the draw you'd win roughly $177 regardless of whether Italy won or it finished as a draw, but again your losses would be huge if China won.

There are some good free calculators out there to help you figure out hedges, dutching etc if you do want to pursue this strategy.

Best of luck.