Major League Soccer Draw/Under Experiment

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  • bostonbruins
    SBR MVP
    • 04-02-08
    • 3272

    #1
    Major League Soccer Draw/Under Experiment
    Tracking MLS scores through the first 45 games showed 15/45 (33%) draws, and 27/45 (60%) Under 2.5. The combination draw/under occured 11/45 (24%).

    I wanted to see if this trend evened out over the next 45 games because I always assumed the draw/over was a better way to play MLS due to the unrefined play, mistakes, etc.

    Over the next 45 games the numbers actually increased slightly in each category, 19/45 (42%) draws, 28/45 (62%) Under 2.5, and 15/45 (33%) draw/under.

    Seems to be a solid play right now so we'll see how it goes, next Saturday will be the first good test, there are 3 games before that that I will start with though.

    I realize the risk may not make this a smart way to play so I'll be keeping it small. Basically when games go over you lose but so far only 39% have gone over and 23% of those were draws resulting in a push.
    Last edited by bostonbruins; 06-07-09, 12:24 PM.
  • bostonbruins
    SBR MVP
    • 04-02-08
    • 3272

    #2
    Sunday June 7

    Dallas/San Jose Under 2.5 (-130) 13>10
    Dallas/San Jose Draw (+235) 5.55>13

    New England/New York Under 2.5 (-120) 12>10
    New England/New York Draw (+225) 5.35>12
    Last edited by bostonbruins; 06-07-09, 12:25 PM.
    Comment
    • bigjonson
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-27-09
      • 668

      #3
      San Jose game was DRAW and OVER.

      My money is on the OVER for the East Coast Clash.....
      Comment
      • Karayilan9
        Restricted User
        • 01-10-09
        • 3742

        #4
        New York has been terrible away, they actually haven't scored a single goal on the road, Revolutions have their top scorer back. I think New England takes this or draws, Over/Under is a tough call, more likely to be under due to New Yorks inability to score but Revolutions seem to have found their scoring boots again.

        New England Revolutions Win/Draw
        Comment
        • Karayilan9
          Restricted User
          • 01-10-09
          • 3742

          #5
          New York Revolutions 4-0 , the striker that returned for the Revs making a real impact then. If Revs win their next 3 games they'll go top of the Eastern Conference, they could be one to watch.

          Damn I love the Mls
          Comment
          • bostonbruins
            SBR MVP
            • 04-02-08
            • 3272

            #6
            Originally posted by bostonbruins
            Sunday June 7

            Dallas/San Jose Under 2.5 (-130) 13>10 LOSS
            Dallas/San Jose Draw (+235) 5.55>13 WIN

            New England/New York Under 2.5 (-120) 12>10 LOSS
            New England/New York Draw (+225) 5.35>12 LOSS

            Record : 1-3 -17.35
            Comment
            • bostonbruins
              SBR MVP
              • 04-02-08
              • 3272

              #7
              Wednesday June 10


              Houston/Chivas Under 2.5 (-135) 13.50>10
              Houston/Chivas Draw (+225) 6>13.50
              Comment
              • bostonbruins
                SBR MVP
                • 04-02-08
                • 3272

                #8
                Originally posted by bostonbruins
                Wednesday June 10


                Houston/Chivas Under 2.5 (-135) 13.50>10 WIN
                Houston/Chivas Draw (+225) 6>13.50 LOSS

                Record: 2-4 -13.35
                Comment
                • Wilforth
                  Restricted User
                  • 05-10-08
                  • 16309

                  #9
                  The MLS is a money-burner!
                  Comment
                  • BrimLow
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 06-11-09
                    • 34

                    #10
                    Agreed
                    Comment
                    • BrimLow
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 06-11-09
                      • 34

                      #11
                      The league is too close to one another in terms of talent. Anybody can beat anybody, their is no clear favorite year in and year out
                      Comment
                      • bostonbruins
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-02-08
                        • 3272

                        #12
                        Saturday June 13

                        DC United/Chicago Draw (+230) 4.35>10
                        DC United/Chicago Under 2.5 (+100) 10>10

                        Dallas/Houston Draw (+225) 5.80>13
                        Dallas/Houston Under 2.5 (-130) 13>10

                        Kansas City/New England Draw (+220) 5.70>12.50
                        Kansas City/New England Under 2.5 (-125) 12.50>10

                        Los Angeles/Real Salt Lake Draw (+230) 5.25>12
                        Los Angeles/Real Salt Lake Under 2.5 (-120) 12>10

                        Seattle/San Jose Draw (+250) 4>10
                        Seattle/San Jose Under 2.5 (+100) 10>10

                        Toronto/New York Draw (+235) 5.55>13
                        Toronto/New York Under 2.5 (-130) 13>10




                        Comment
                        • bostonbruins
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-02-08
                          • 3272

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Wilforth
                          The MLS is a money-burner!

                          This system has been a money maker, hopefully it continues. This system is the only way I will bet MLS for the rest of the season. As teams start thinking about the second half, and playoffs, defense should tighten up and we will see more draws and more unders. That's the plan anyway

                          Comment
                          • bostonbruins
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-02-08
                            • 3272

                            #14
                            Yesterday was about what I expect to happen after starting something like this.


                            Sunday June 14

                            Columbus/Chivas Draw (+225) 5.20>11.70
                            Columbus/Chivas Under 2.5 (-117) 11.70>10
                            Comment
                            • bostonbruins
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-02-08
                              • 3272

                              #15
                              Wednesday June 17


                              Seattle/DC Under 2.5 (-105) 10.50>10
                              Seattle/DC Draw (+225) 4.70>10.50




                              Comment
                              • Wilforth
                                Restricted User
                                • 05-10-08
                                • 16309

                                #16
                                I'm with you on the draw.
                                Comment
                                • bostonbruins
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-02-08
                                  • 3272

                                  #17
                                  A little late posting but the bets don't change



                                  San Jose/LA Draw (+235) 5.75>13.50
                                  San Jose/LA Under 2.5 (-135) 13.50>10

                                  NY/Seattle Draw (+225) 6.25>14
                                  NY/Seattle Under 2.5 (-140) 14>10

                                  Dallas/Columbus Draw (+225) 4.70>10.50
                                  Dallas/Columbus Under 2.5 (-105) 10.50>10

                                  Houston/Salt Lake Draw (+250) 5.40>13.50
                                  Houston/Salt Lake Under 2.5 (-135) 13.50>10

                                  Colorado/DC Draw (+230) 4.35>10
                                  Colorado/DC Under 2.5 (+100) 10>10


                                  Will be updating stats later......
                                  Comment
                                  • bostonbruins
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-02-08
                                    • 3272

                                    #18
                                    Record: 8-24 -110.80







                                    Last edited by bostonbruins; 06-21-09, 11:20 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • bostonbruins
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-02-08
                                      • 3272

                                      #19
                                      Wednesday June 24

                                      Toronto/NY Draw (+230) 5.65>13 LOSS
                                      Toronto/NY Under 2.5 (-130) 13>10 WIN
                                      Colorado/Dallas Draw (+250) 4.20>10.50 WIN
                                      Colorado/Dallas Under 2.5 (-105) 10.50>10 Win
                                      Comment
                                      • bostonbruins
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-02-08
                                        • 3272

                                        #20
                                        Record : 11-25 -85.95
                                        Comment
                                        • Bogart45
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-21-08
                                          • 379

                                          #21
                                          There are so many draws in MLS it's rediculous. I was thinking of doing the same thing but the lines seem to be priced right (from the books perspective) and I think you'll continue to do about break even doing that.
                                          Comment
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