Betting Log [Division]

[Division]

Always appreciate comments.

Can you explain more this part?

Regarding ur bet log, imo, I feel that progression stakes will be pumped less than fkkked up more by variance, so it's not worth the hard work/discipline.

Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?

[EasyPicks]

Always appreciate comments.

Can you explain more this part?


Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?

Hi,

What I meant was, in a bad run (that will eventually happen) the progressive % stake plan will kill faster the main goal (growth of the bankroll) than it would help rise the bank in a good run.

Two reasons for this:

1# mentally is hard to surpass a bad run with objective/discipline bets (the demoralizing effect on the toll that the bankroll toke after the consecutive losses is hard to get around)

2# good runs aren't enough (on a progressive % stake plan) to get the best over normal variance and bad runs...in order to get your goal.

"Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?"

Yes w/o a doubt, imo. An average+/good capper with high volume (large number of bets, not money - that's irrelevant) that beats the juice will end up making more money (in a 1 to 5 units scheme for example) than by sticking with the % progression. The key obviously is discipline either way.

[Division]

English Premier League
Man Utd v Tottenham
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 65%
Stake: €37

[Division]

"Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?"
Yes w/o a doubt, imo. An average+/good capper with high volume (large number of bets, not money - that's irrelevant) that beats the juice will end up making more money (in a 1 to 5 units scheme for example) than by sticking with the % progression. The key obviously is discipline either way.

This is an interesting article about the topic: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...62VHE9W3JPJ7X7

[EasyPicks]

This is an interesting article about the topic: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...62VHE9W3JPJ7X7

Yeah nice read (I also read their articles - they usually post them on twitter ).

Like I said, 1 to 5 unit betting scheme for example way better than the flat bet stakes (assuming the capper has/knows his edge overall).....progression scheme theoretically (and as backed by the article) seems the best option....but you do have to factor in the difficulty on good decision making after a long losing streak....

Thx for sharing.
aGl 2 morrow (I'm avoiding that game)

[EasyPicks]

There is a very serious problem over here with bookmakers closing or limiting accounts and nothing is being done about it but there is a lot of competition so it can be possible to keep betting and make a big profit before you run into problems.

Personally I have had 7 accounts closed and 4 more restricted even with taking measures to keep my profit at a minimum at these books by laying off bets on Betfair (a betting exchange).

Got a few questions about this ....If u have the time to shed a light on it:

- was bet365 one of those (that block/limited you)?

- how did books limited your accounts? (I had the same problem, will detail further after ur reply)

- why don't you just use Betfair (book and exchange) and pinnacle?

[aspire15]

Always appreciate comments.

Can you explain more this part?


Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?

hi division,

you said in the first posts that you bet flat 2% in each selection (regardeless of the odd? - thats my first question) but you've made this progression blog to make it more entertaining for readers....have you ever tried a similar challenge like this?

[Division]

Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea (Bet lost)
Watford 0-1 Stoke (Bet Lost)
Man Utd 1-0 Tottenham (Bet Won)

Balance: €367

English Premier League
Chelsea v Man Utd
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 BetFred
Estimated Win Percentage: 69%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Everton v Watford
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 54%
Stake: €36

[Division]

Got a few questions about this ....If u have the time to shed a light on it:
- was bet365 one of those (that block/limited you)?
- how did books limited your accounts? (I had the same problem, will detail further after ur reply)
- why don't you just use Betfair (book and exchange) and pinnacle?

I still have my Bet365 account. I keep as many accounts open as possible by betting in such as way that the account goes into a negative but I recoup my losses by betting the other side on a betting exchange when the profit on the bookmaker account reaches a certain threshold. I only use Bet365 for the major European soccer leagues which may help keeping the account open but their limits are not too high so its not a bookmaker I use too often.

Some bookmakers closed my account and told me it was a trading decision, some bookmakers limited me to very small bets on soccer markets but will allow me to bet larger stakes on other sports. I contacted the regulators or the bookmakers, the gambling commission in the UK, the Irish department of justice and a couple of other organisations about it but there is nobody that can (or will) do anything about this practice.

I do use Betfair, just not for this log. There is little point in tipping a selection that has no liquidity on Betfair. Pinnacle stopped operating in my country as the government introduced a tax based on online turnover.

hi division,
you said in the first posts that you bet flat 2% in each selection (regardeless of the odd? - thats my first question) but you've made this progression blog to make it more entertaining for readers....have you ever tried a similar challenge like this?

All my bets fall within a narrow range of odds so the flat stake is fairly suitable. I adjust the stake amount when the bankroll increases or decreases by certain percentages.

I did something similar to this years ago when my bankroll was smaller and I was less risk adverse but with a higher frequency of bets. There is not much interest being shown so I only occasionally post some bets now.

[Division]

Chelsea 1-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
Everton 3-2 Watford (Bet Lost)

Balance: €353

World Cup Qualifier
Denmark v Republic of Ireland
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 56%
Stake: €35

[Division]

Denmark 0-0 Ireland (Bet Lost)

Balance: €318

English Premier League
Arsenal v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.53 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 72%
Stake: €31

English Premier League
Leicester v Man City
Bet: Man City To Win & Both Teams To Score @ 2.6 BetFred
Estimated Win Percentage: 43%
Stake: €31

[Division]

Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham (Bet Lost)
Leicester 0-2 Man City (Bet Lost)

Balance: €256

English Premier League
Newcastle v Watford
Bet: Watford Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.7 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 83%
Stake: €25

English Premier League
Man Utd v Brighton
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 82%
Stake: €25

[Division]

Newcastle 0-3 Watford (Bet Won)
Man Utd 1-0 Brighton (Bet Won)

Balance: €286

English Premier League
Stoke v Liverpool
Bet: over 2.5 goals @ 1.57 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 71%
Stake: €28

English Premier League
Chelsea v Swansea
Bet: under 3.5 goals @ 1.57 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 85%
Stake: €28

[Pr0bot]

Hey, just curious, what is the process which gives you these % odds? GL! : )

And dont want to be rude, but is there really value in betting something at 1.57 with a team that can easily score 4 goals on their own? :C

[Division]

Stoke 0-3 Liverpool (Bet Won)
Chelsea 1-0 Swansea (Bet Won)

Balance: €318

English Premier League
Arsenal v Man Utd
Bet: under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 BetFred
Estimated Win Percentage: 71%
Stake: €31

English Premier League
Leicester v Burnley
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 BoyleSports
Estimated Win Percentage: 66%
Stake: €31

[Division]

Arsenal 1-3 Man Utd (Bet Lost)
Leicester 1-0 Burnley (Bet Won)

Balance: €308

English Premier League
Leicester v Crystal Palace
Bet: Leicester Win @ 1.91 William Hill
Estimated Win Percentage: 67%
Stake: €46

English Premier League
Brighton v Burnley
Bet: Burnley Win Draw No Bet @ 2.2 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 68%
Stake: €46