Mathematics in Sports Betting

[LFC1892]

Hi guys. I will share with you a betting system I was working on in the last month. Everything based on numbers and percantages. Not sure how it will goes but 60% SR so far is not that bad.


Pick 1: Middlesbrough U23-Norwich U23- Over 2.5- @1.95

Pick 2: Beitar Jerusalem-H.Beer Sheva- 1X First Half- @1.62


GL

[chuda]

long time no see ... GL

[sportsbook_12]

LOL I badly need this!

[LFC1892]

Cheers chuda and sportsbook.

Now that was a very good start to the thread, two easy winners. Hopefully there will be more games coming soon.

[LFC1892]

Pick 3: Dep.Capiata-Cerro Porteno- Under 3- @1.83

Pick 4: Dep.Capiata-Cerro Porteno- X2- @1.44

[LFC1892]

Pick 5: Turkey Boluspor-Darica Genclebirgi: X2 First Half-@1.80

[LFC1892]

Pick 6: Turkey Boluspor-Darica Genclebirgi: Under 2.5- @2.05

Risky play because it does not match all the criteria but still represents value at these odds.

[LFC1892]

Pick 7: Goztepe:Yeni Amasyaspor-Under 2.5- @2.20/2.52 bf

I will list all the games after this one.

[LFC1892]

So far 7 picks- 5 won and 2 lost and one of the losing games didn't met the neccessary criteria at all

Next picks:

Pick 8: Montana-Vereya-Under 2.5- @1.62

Pick 9: Braila-CS U Craiova-Under 2.5-@1.80

Pick 10- Braila-CS U Craiova- 2-3 total goals-@2.00

[LFC1892]

3 more winners

Record: 10 picks: 8-2

I'm calculating the next games.

[LFC1892]

Pick 11: Nantes-Marseille-Under 2.5-@1.60

Starting in 5 minutes

[LFC1892]

Pick 12: Bournemouth-Leicester- Leicester +0.5 ah-@1.74 (5 units)

Pick 13: MKD-Charlton-Under 2.5- @1.94 (5 units)

Pick 14: Burton-Huddersfield- Under 2.5-@1.68

Pick 15: Burton-Huddersfield- 2-3 total goals-@2.00

[LFC1892]

Could have been a lot worse. 2-3 last 5 picks. Still in profit overall since the start.

Next game will be Jeonbuk-Mamelodi Sundowns from FIFA Club World Cup. I will post my pick an hour before the game.

[LFC1892]

Pick 16: Jeonbuk-Mamelodi Sundowns- Over 2.5-@1.70

High probability for 2 or 3 goals in this game. The closest game with the same indexes finished with 3 goals.

[calvin34242]

how do u cap a meaningless game which is a friendly really and korea team has their best players on bench til the 2nd half most likely

[LFC1892]

how do u cap a meaningless game which is a friendly really and korea team has their best players on bench til the 2nd half most likely

I know nothing about these teams to be honest. Just counting on numbers mate.

[calvin34242]

what's the basics of ur system without giving away too much information

[LFC1892]

what's the basics of ur system without giving away too much information

Just applying some math formulas + my method for odds estimation. A few minor criteria as well and I get a number that shows me what to bet. I don't care about injures, financial problems etc although it matters a lot.

[LFC1892]

Pick 16 won in the first half. Next games:

Pick 17: Aydinspor-Akhisar Genclik Spor- 1X First Half-@1.50

Pick 18: Inegolspor-Sancaktepe- Under 2.5-@1.83

[Bombers78]

What league is this?

[nash13]

Turkish Cup

[LFC1892]

Turkey Bomber. I will post the country from now on.

Pick 19: Netherlands Zwolle:Ultrecht- Under 2.5-@2.23

Not sure about this at all but that's what my system estimated.

[Bombers78]

right on. thanks

[Division]

Will you be sharing any of the mathematics?

[LFC1892]

1-2 FT. 93 min goal

Not yet Division.

Pick 20 Belgium: Oestende-Gent- 1X- @1.67
Pick 21 Belgium: Charleroi-Genk-Under 2.5-@1.91
Pick 22 Belgium: Charleroi-Genk- 2/3 total goals-@2.00

I'm calculating EPL games next.

[LFC1892]

Pick 23 England: QPR-Derby-Under 2.5-@1.71

[LFC1892]

Pick 24 West Brom-Swansea-Under 2.5-@1.76 (5 units)

GL all . I'm going to watch Liverpool now.

[LFC1892]

Just came back home... Record stands at 15-9 with two of the losers not given from the system (Boluspor and Leicester ) so basically 15-7. The system is pretty good I think but if you don't have a proper money managament everything seems useless. I need to work on that.

Next game will be Partizan-Subotica- Serbian Super League.

[LFC1892]

Pick 25 Serbia Partizan-SP.Subotica-Under 2.5-@2.00

Great odds and strong selection according to my system, should win easily.

[rankslash]

I threw 100 $ on the under 2.5 @1.90 ... I hope Partizan win this 1-0.

[LFC1892]

2-0 FT. Congrats rankslash.

Next game will be Porto-Maritimo-Portugal Primeira League.

[LFC1892]

Pick 26 Portugal Porto-Maritimo- Over 3-@1.73

[kmarinouofm]

Pick 26 Portugal Porto-Maritimo- Over 3-@1.73

I would be happy with a push at this point

[LFC1892]

I would be happy with a push at this point

I watched the first half. Porto dominated the game and Maritimo were defending with 11 players like idiots. They are 1-0 down so it's logical to see them in a more attacking formation now. I hope they score an early goal and we might see a goal fest.

[LFC1892]

A push here. Porto deserved more though.

Next game will be Australia Newcastle Jets-Adelaide United.