Toons vs Boro, musings on correct score

[*SYL*]

Hello all, my first post here, bear with me =)

about Newcastle vs Middlesbrough correct score bets, am i right in thinking this should be well worth a bet?

say, if i put the following on (x being a random amount of whatever currency you're using, I'm on euro's) @ the following odds

€1.0x on 0-0 @ 10.5
€0.84x on 0-1 @ 12.5
€0.42x on 0-2 @ 25
€1.25x on 1-0 @ 8.4
€1.35x on 1-1 @ 7.8
€0.66x on 1-2 @ 16
€1.0x on 2-0 @ 10.5
€1.05x on 2-1 @ 10
€0.5x on 2-2 @ 21

[edit] decimal odds instead of fractional

Given the following:
-at the moment both teams cannot score to save their lives
-the last 10 matches between the 2 have all ended without either scoring 3 goals
- Boro's last 10 matches only had them scoring 3 goals once
- Newcastle's last 10 matches didn't have them scoring 3 goals at all

It should be concluded that this is a steal of a bet? or am i missing something here, and it will go terribly terribly wrong ?

[Madetowin]

I love the Under.

[*SYL*]

hm, maybe my first post wasn't clear. i meant sticking all of the bets on. As long as noone scores 3 goals, i should have a roi of around 30%. Since both of them haven't scored 3 in ages and do not look like it now, i thought it looked profitable. Effectively i have to be right something like 78% of the time to break even in a situation where - given history and current form - i think i am right quite a bit more often. Or have i got a flaw in my logic? (total bet is roughly 8.05x with payout being around 10.5x in every situation other than one team scoring 3 or more, where of course i get wiped)

[turnip]

hope you didn't do this

[*SYL*]

heh, it's just playing with numbers. no, i didn't, but if i had the spare roll i wouldn't have seen it as a mistake, eventho it lost. i cannot see either team currently scoring 3 or more goals often enough to make the bet not worth it.
(if someone does think it's wrong, please enlighten me why. that's why i posted it in the first place)

[turnip]

I'm not claiming it was a bad bet, just hoping you didn't lose any with this match. In fact, Kevin Nolan was offside for Obafemi's goal, so it could have easily been 2-1.

In Newcastle's earlier game against Portsmouth, Portsmouth was content with 1 point, and played for a 0-0 draw. A draw wouldn't have done Newcastle or Boro much good today, which might explain why both teams were taking chances at the back.

[*SYL*]

you're right with both teams going for it because they have no other option. their ability to actually get the ball in the net suprised me tho, as they are generally useless.

on the betting subject: i had my cash on newcastle to simply win or draw, so i'm a happy camper