Copenhagen/ Leicester u2.5 -149 Nov 2

[Stackzilla]

Get it. Before it's gone

Gambler I shipped you back your points thanks for your post.

[aiwin88]

Bro, any picks for today's matches?

[Enkhbat]

-149? why is the line so bad? I want it at -115

[Stackzilla]

Lots of really good match ups today. From the stats I posted in the other thread got some home teams playing CL/EL hangover teams. I might be spit firing a few picks, as always if you got a question about a pick I'll try to answer before KO.

EPL
Man City -1 -130
**Chels +122....I think a few others tipped this I'm not putting it on my record but it's a pick I really like

Serie A
Cagliari +.5 -135....Serie A is on that list of leagues with home teams winning at high %'s, Cagliari is on a good recent run Fiorentina played mid-week in EL hangover then there's this stat I've been tracking

Cagliari ---Finishing scoring chances

Strong

suppose to say Strong

Fiorentina---Finishing scoring chances

Weak

suppose to say Weak
from whoscored.com


Let's get that money machine rolling...

That u2.5 will be u2 sooner than later....

[Stackzilla]

If your using whoscored.com make sure you look on the right side of the page you'll see Match Forecast click that. After you scroll down a bit you'll see this





This info is very valuable, what your looking for is strong on one and weak on the other I'm getting best results when more than 1 match up but if "A" team is your bet and it matches up with "B" make sure "B" isn't strong on important characteristics and "A" is weak.

[Buffalosoldier]

I dont watch much soccer but I do know that man redmonds is a beast. The gambling gods know I took man city so they take away a good goal. I dont even wanna speak of the goal that was given up. This shit is more fixed then the National Fixed League

[Stackzilla]

That's awesome 1-4 and it's not even half time...

[Buffalosoldier]

I was gonna take over in that match too. Sad i didnt. Would of canceled that ass whipping

[Stackzilla]

Atl Madrid/Sevilla 1H Draw +112 .5u

[Stackzilla]

I was gonna take over in that match too. Sad i didnt. Would of canceled that ass whipping

awesome like getting acid thrown in your face then put on fire

[Buffalosoldier]

Yea and stones giving away goal basically ****** that game. If i didnt have bad luck id have no luck.

[Stackzilla]

No ones fault but mine...who'd think Man City haven't won a game in a month. Damn I was really hoping Balotelli was in for Nice...I'm liking Benefica @ -1.5...I'm gonna dig in some SA foots...might post an NFL or 2 went 3 out 4 last weekend...Let's cash Chels and this 1H bet... Then push forward

[Stackzilla]

Sweet baby jesus 3 days later and I posted a winner. Let's see if I can hit a streak.

[Stackzilla]

Mainz/Schalke u1 1H +107

[Stackzilla]

IND +4 -116 Saw a lot of cracks in Ten's game last week, steam is going to other way here but I'm on it. May take the Pats right now it's -7 if I can get -6.5 I'm taking it on the spot and if it goes -7.5 I'm still taking it 5-1 ATS. Yep.

[Stackzilla]

These are the home field W--L-- advantage stats for somt of the leagues left today a lot KO around 3pm. Gonna try and put together a parlay, best thing here is the KO time so I can make sure every player I've noted are in the starting XI.

I'll post before KO.
Home W Home D Home L Avg home pts

20

Bolivia

Primera Division - Apertura

32

13

12

1.91

22

France

Ligue 1

52

18

21

1.91

30

Brazil

Serie A

168

71

72

1.85

38

Ecuador

Serie A - Clausura

43

19

19

1.83

45

USA

Major League Soccer

162

105

63

1.79

86

Italy

Serie A

39

17

23

1.7

91

Colombia

Primera A Clausura

74

47

37

1.7

[Stackzilla]

Brazil A
Palmerias, Atl Mineiro,Flamengo
La Liga
Real Madrid
20 wins 50

Couldn't put together anything bigger. Maybe next week. Weak parlay.

[Stackzilla]

Gonna go thru my older threads and post actual +/-

Colts up 4 at HT so I'm up 8

Pats at -7 -115 gonna wait a little longer the haters will come out and line will be at -105

[Stackzilla]

Hawks +2 -110 88
Hawks ML 80

[Stackzilla]

EPL
Man City -1 -130 L
**Chels +122..W..I think a few others tipped this I'm not putting it on my record but it's a pick I really like (I thought he took them but he had the over)



Serie A
Cagliari +.5 -135 L

Atl Madrid/Sevilla 1H Draw +112 .5u W
Mainz/Schalke u1 1H +107 P

NFL
IND +4 -116 W
Pats at -7 -115 W was gonna wait a little longer the haters will come out and line will be at -105 (didn't move)

Brazil A
Palmerias, Atl Mineiro,Flamengo
La Liga
Real Madrid
20 wins 50 L

+.98 4w-1p-3l

Getting my actual posted +/- now

[Stackzilla]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ifiers-p3.html
WC Qualifier +11.8

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ou-i-some.html
This thread +4.67
My latest long thread

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-betting/3296572-day-8-a.html

Total +9.36-- 36-38-1
This was a string of threads I made for 8 days was trying something different.


http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-betting/3253595-stackzillas-picks.html
YTD -8.62 80-12-82
My 1st thread looking back at this thread I made some awesome picks, but I see a lot of things I did wrong. I could've been up a few k if I didn't try to cap every game. The very first pick was +400 I did Dog of the Day hit the first 3 days in a row then stopped after 7 or so. I was nickle and diming soccer at the time while betting baseball. Started 1 u $20 after 2 months I was up to $50 1u and I've been where I'm at now for the past few months. One strategy that I used but I haven't done it since was this gem.

Ok going to divert back to earlier in the thread when I was a bit more riskier and did more research. Been taking too many favorites and too many juicy o/u's. Risky and well researched worked made some really good picks that no one saw coming. With that outta the way I've got 3 risky researched plays but all I need is 1 winner and we make $$.

Spain Segunda

KO 2:30pm ET

Llagostera +733 v Zaragoza
Real Valladolid +488 v Mallorca
Real Oviedo +400 v Osasuna

Llagostera comes in last 5 overall games 2-2-1 3:2, last 5 home games 3-2-0 6:2
Zaragoza last 5 overall 2-2-1 6:4, last 5 away games 1-3-1 7:7

Zaragoza is a headed to playoffs for promotion so I don't see them really coming out hard because the past few weeks they've already worked hard at securing a spot in the playoffs. There is a 3 point difference from them and the team on the outside looking in/ Llagostera is headed to relegation and there's no saving them they've pretty much known this for a few weeks now so now looking at recent home record they've been playing for they're fans. Upset Saturday ahead!

Real Valladolid last 5 overall 1-2-2 5:7, last 5 home games 1-3-1 4:4
Mallorca last 5 overall 2-0-3 3:4, last 5 away games 0-1-4 3:7

Valladolid has beat Mallorca at home last 4 out of 5 since 08'. They're 1st match this year reverse fixture Valladolid won 0-1. Valladolid is safe from relegation and at mid-ish table at 16th place. My thoughts here are Valladolid comes out last game of the year and with not much to play for but the end the year off right with a W.
Now Mallorca is in relegation as right now but with a win they will save themselves.

Real Ovideo last 5 overall 1-0-4 4:8, last 5 home 3-0-2 6:3
Osasuna last 5 overall 1-2-2 5:6, last 5 away 1-3-1 2:2

Real Oviedo coming into this game just missed making the playoffs by 4 points but Osasuna missed by 3 points but even with a win goal differential would not secure them a spot. Previous meeting at Osasuna at home ended in a 0-0 draw. Looking at stats from Oviedo's last home games they have turned up the offense 17 SOG in last 5 home games scoring 6 goals and Osasuna with 12 SOG last 5 away games scoring only 2 goals.

Remember we only need 1 win and we win $$ Hopefully Llagostera pulls off the big upset.

Was simple hit 1 win, hit 2 win big, hit 3 cash out lol The +733 hit that was and still is my biggest dog pick. Epic. I might try to do that again here soon.

[Stackzilla]

This seriously penetrate this game...lif AZ wins by 3 line was sharp as penetrate..Enjoy..

Judge Morty: State of Georgia Vs. Rick Allen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTWdP5DMdsM

HA WINNER ON THE +2... I can't stop watching this I just keep repeating it...#6 I'm 32 I freaking love this show can't wait for Season 3...I'm going to take it down for now gonna have to click the link...

[Stackzilla]

Goteborg +165 50

[Rainmaker222]

keep 1 thread stacky

[Buffalosoldier]

Stacks i got over in bothe the sweden league games. Hopefully i posted winner along with ya

[Stackzilla]

Overs look good in both, closing in on the end of the season AIK the only team playing today that can move up in standings but their set to play in Europa next season.


Word. BOL puddle

[Buffalosoldier]

They looked good until i took them haha i chickened out on goteburg so you should get a winner there haha.

[Stackzilla]

If you bet o2.5 on every match in Sweden Allsven you would've won 74% of the time, o3.5 62%..Without looking at the juice on these, overs most likely have never been a bad bet.

Goteborg +165 50 W

Might have something later.

Edit: Just a bad beat.

[Stackzilla]

Gonna close out NFL 4-0 with this last pick

DEN TTu24.5 -120 100

[Stackzilla]

I just found something that could make some crazy profits and it's something we all want to find...blind betting and make profits everytime...I was looking at leagues with high draw %'s France 2, home teams have 44w 46d 30l so I looked at what the lines were on double chance 1x and on a small sample avg. the line closes @-320 so 44+46=90u 3.2x30=96 90-96 -6u that league didn't work so I looked at Spain 2 home teams 53w 49d 19l lines are up and down here but if you have b365 the line on a small sample have all been very similar on avg @ -345 so 53+49 = 102u 19x3.45= 65.55u 102-65.55 +36.45u....holy shit blind betting this league DC 1x each play to win 1u could've made +36.45u...shitty thing for me is I can't find a book that offers DC where I am... for verification http://www.soccervista.com/soccer_le...r_of_draws.php ....here's a few other leagues I think this strategy would work if anyone wants to do the math...Chile Primera B, Italy Serie B, Israel Lemuit League, Iraq Prem, Serbia Prva League, and Croatia 2. Division...Just think about that if there's 7 leagues that this strategy works in and it's all blind betting I might as well move to Europe for a few months every year. I haven't back-checked previous years but I'm sure some if not all leagues posted will bring similar results... You can find previous odds here http://www.oddsportal.com/ their records go back 98/99 for Spain 2.....

[lccastrol]

Hey Stack, I believe Nitrogen has these leagues, would you care to ellaborate? I'm very interested in these blind betting strategys

Sending you the link: https://nitrogensports.eu/

[apaeth]

Nitrogen hardly ever carries the full itinerary for any of the lower leagues. Usually hit or miss on the offerings and their +.5 lines which is basically the same line as a DC are scattered and often juiced as well. Bovada is the only book that offers the straight DC or +.5 on almost every match but their crap lines would negate the impact.

Edit: Not sure about Cloudbet..haven't been brave enough to transfer to there yet.

[Stackzilla]

Nitro has the leagues but I'm looking for but no DC, I can always just bet to win .5u if home team line is juiced or just bet .5u if +$ and .5u on draw I think that would be the same DC 1x... I think I'd have to create a formula if I was betting on both.

To explain it a bit more so here's the league record for home teams currently

Spain

Segunda Division

53w

49d

19l

I only looked over the closing lines on DC on a small sample from last weekends matches. Next I added ...

53w+49d=102
Now if I bet every game every week DC 1x to win 1u I'd be +102u's

Next step I took the avg line -345 or 1.28

Using the -345 I turned that into 3.45 because that's how much I would've lost on avg each match so...

19L x 3.45 = 65.55u's that's the avg amount I would've lost so far

Next step I took my + and subtracted my -

102-65.55 = 36.45 would've been on avg my overall profit so far but I did forget to divide by the weeks so my next step

36.45/11(the # of weeks played) = 3.313..would have been on avg my weekly profit.

Edit: That's only 1 league, I'm not sure about the other leagues I posted but I'm sure there are some books that carry DC's for every league.

[Stackzilla]

Ok looked at a few other leagues and it has to be a very competitive league where home team line is (+) more often than (-)...DC's when home is (-) the line goes up significantly in some cases...Spain Segunda fits and Italy B fits. I'm gonna try and make some time to crunch out the numbers this year and see what the avg was when I get a chance. I may have jumped the gun here still some math to do as well as a variance %.

Ex.
Girona - Numancia

1x2 bet365

-105

+220

+320

1x bet365

-400

-278

-118

[Stackzilla]

Hawks +2 -110 88 W
Hawks ML 80 P
Goteborg +165 50 W
DEN TTu24.5 -120 100 L

+.43
this thread +1.40