Live Plays...0ver 0.5 Goals

KATCHASE · 08-21-16, 01:03 PM

Live @ 17'

Israel » Ligat ha'Al » Maccabi Tel Aviv - Hapoe
Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

KATCHASE · 08-21-16, 02:38 PM

Live @ 22'

Portugal » Primeira Liga » Benfica - Setubal
Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

KATCHASE · 08-21-16, 09:10 PM

Live @ 21'

USA » MLS » Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers
Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

Stackzilla · 08-21-16, 10:44 PM

Good luck, easiest way to make $$ imo I personally use the o1.5 strategy. Less juice, more risk but your strategy should win well over 80% of the time. Are you planning on trying o.5 on teams and not just the game? It's usually no juice live than o1.5 on the game.

KATCHASE · 08-22-16, 11:24 AM

I've just been focusing on and backtesting +0.5 on games, but I need to track live in order to get a feel for when most of the first goals are being scored and the average live odds at the time.

My "First Tier" selection results over the past year (July/15 to July/16) that went over 0.5 goals was 1011 wins to 56 losses (94.7% win rate). In a perfect world where I was able to bet on every single one of these games before the first goal was scored, I would only need 1.06 odds to break even. Anything higher would be pure profit.

I've managed to narrow down these First Tier selections further to games that can be considered my "Second Tier". Because there are fewer games which fall into this Second Tier range, I've managed to backtest them over the past two years. July/15 to July/16 results were 192 wins to 5 losses (97.4% win rate) and July/14 to July/15 results were 300 wins to 8 losses (97.4% win rate).

I took a quick look at +1.5 goals on my Second Tier Games, and it looks like it's been hitting at about an 80% win rate. Pre-game odds for these games sit at about 1.20-1.25. I'll have to keep an eye on the live odds for these +1.5's.

Stackzilla · 08-22-16, 11:56 AM

I'm assuming your 2nd tier games have pre-match odds o3 1.89 or similar? If that's the case odds drop slowly at first then as the match goes on it gets to some great prices. For instance the Poland match right now Korona Kielce vs Wisla right noe o1.5 is 2.20 and both teams are producing some offense so you can assume o1.5 will hit then if you want to look into it deeper http://www.soccerstats.com has the best stats. Usually after 5 games into a league the stats become more clear and you can almost pin point when a goal will be scored. This is the stats for the Poland match.

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

Scores at home
4 - 1	1	50.0%
1 - 1	1	50.0%

Scores away
3 - 1	1	33.3%
2 - 1	1	33.3%
3 - 0	1	33.3%

Goal margins (at home)	1	2	3	4+
Wins	0	0	1	0
Defeats	0	0	0	0

Goal margins (total)	1	2	3	4+
Wins	0	0	1	0
Defeats	1	0	0	1

Goal margins (away)	1	2	3	4+
Wins	0	0	0	0
Defeats	1	1	1	0

Goal margins (total)	1	2	3	4+
Wins	1	0	0	0
Defeats	2	1	1	0

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

Home

Away

HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE

Home

Away

80%	20%	% Points	100%	0%
62%	38%	% Goals scored	60%	40%
20%	80%	% Goals conceded	27%	73%

Home	Total	CURRENT SEQUENCES	Total	Away
1	-	Consecutive wins	-	-
-	-	Consecutive draws	-	-
-	1	Consecutive defeats	4	3
-	1	No win	4	3
1	2	No draw	5	3
2	-	No defeat	-	-
2	4	Goal scored	3	2
2	5	Goal conceded	5	3
-	-	No goal scored	-	-
-	-	No goal conceded	-	-

Points per game
Korona Kielce		Wisla Krakow

Home

2

0

Away

Total

1

0.6

Total

Home		Total	OUTCOMES	Total	Away
50%	1	1	Wins	1	0	0%
50%	1	2	Draws	0	0	0%
0%	0	2	Defeats	4	3	100%
2		5	Total	5	3

Home table

		GP	Pts
1	Termalica	4	10
2	Arka Gdynia	3	9
3	Zaglebie Lubin	4	8
4	KS Cracovia	3	7
5	Jagiellonia	3	6
6	Lechia Gdansk	2	6
7	Wisla Plock	3	6
8	Pogon Szczecin	3	4
9	Korona Kielce	2	4
10	Ruch Chorzow	2	4
11	Gornik Leczna	3	4
12	Piast Gliwice	3	4
13	Wisla Krakow	2	3
14	Slask Wroclaw	3	3
15	Legia Warsaw	4	3
16	Lech Poznan	3	3

Away table

		GP	Pts
1	Lechia Gdansk	4	7
2	Zaglebie Lubin	2	4
3	Pogon Szczecin	3	4
4	Jagiellonia	3	4
5	Slask Wroclaw	3	4
6	Ruch Chorzow	4	4
7	Legia Warsaw	2	3
8	Arka Gdynia	3	3
9	Wisla Plock	3	2
10	Lech Poznan	3	2
11	Piast Gliwice	3	2
12	KS Cracovia	3	1
13	Gornik Leczna	3	1
14	Korona Kielce	3	1
15	Wisla Krakow	3	0
16	Termalica	2	0

Korona Kielce

Wisla Krakow

Home	Total	SCORING	Total	Away
5	8	Goals scored	5	2
2	10	Goals conceded	11	8
(1) 2.50	1.60	Goals scored per match	1.00	0.67 (3)
(2) 1.00	2.00	Goals conceded per match	2.20	2.67 (4)
(A) 3.50	(B) 3.60	Scored+conc. per match	3.20 (C)	3.33 (D)
100%	100%	Matches over 1.5 goals	100%	100%
(E) 50%	(F) 60%	Matches over 2.5 goals	100% (G)	100% (H)
50%	60%	Matches over 3.5 goals	20%	33%
50%	40%	Matches over 4.5 goals	0%	0%
100%	80%	Both teams scored	80%	67%
0%	0%	Clean sheets	0%	0%
0%	20%	Failed to score	20%	33%
0%	0%	Won-to-nil	0%	0%
0%	20%	Lost-to-nil	20%	33%

Korona Kielce & Wisla Krakow, combined values			League avg.
average (1) & (4) values		2.59	1.60
average (2) & (3) values		0.84	0.89
Total goals	average (A) & (D) values	3.42	2.49
average (B) & (C) values	3.40
Over 2.5	average (E) & (H) values	75.0%	48.9%
average (F) & (G) values	80.0%

Then there's the more detailed stats once a league progresses. This is a Sweden match today

GOALS PER 15 MIN.

Elfsborg
Total

0-15	GF	2
GA	4
16-30	GF	3
GA	5
31-45	GF	7
GA	4

46-60	GF	6
GA	5
61-75	GF	9
GA	3
76-90	GF	6
GA	4

1st H	GF	12
GA	13

2nd H	GF	21
GA	12

'31-45' and '76-90' include added time
GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')

Elfsborg
Home

0-15	GF	2
GA	1
16-30	GF	1
GA	2
31-45	GF	5
GA	1

46-60	GF	3
GA	2
61-75	GF	7
GA	3
76-90	GF	0
GA	2

1st H	GF	8
GA	4

2nd H	GF	10
GA	7

'31-45' and '76-90' include added time
GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')

GIF Sundsvall
Total

0-15	GF	4
GA	2
16-30	GF	5
GA	3
31-45	GF	5
GA	3

46-60	GF	4
GA	5
61-75	GF	3
GA	6
76-90	GF	4
GA	9

1st H	GF	14
GA	8

2nd H	GF	11
GA	20

'31-45' and '76-90' include added time
GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')

GIF Sundsvall
Away

0-15	GF	2
GA	1
16-30	GF	1
GA	1
31-45	GF	2
GA	3

46-60	GF	2
GA	4
61-75	GF	1
GA	2
76-90	GF	3
GA	5

1st H	GF	5
GA	5

2nd H	GF	6
GA	11

'31-45' and '76-90' include added time
GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')

Then there's this which has made it slightly easier for me to pick draws or o/u's

Elfsborg

GIF Sundsvall

Home	Total	GOAL TYPES	Total	Away
8	18	Matches played	18	9
1	4	Equalizer goals scored	2	1
7	14	Goals giving the lead	13	6
10	15	Goals scored increasing/decreasing lead	10	4
3	7	Equalizer goals conceded	7	3
3	10	Goals giving the lead to the opponent	9	4
5	8	Goals conceded increasing/decr. lead	12	9

Home	Total	GOAL TYPES ANALYSIS	Total	Away
8	18	Matches played	18	9
0.88	0.78	Goals giving the lead per game * (1)	0.72	0.67
33%	40%	Ability to equalize * (2)	22%	25%
0.38	0.56	Goals giving lead to opponent p. game * (3)	0.50	0.44
43%	50%	Opponents' ability to equalize * (4)	54%	50%

Stackzilla · 08-22-16, 12:02 PM

I'm always finding new sites but recently I've just been using soccerstats.com and http://whoscored.com who scored is another good site, lots of stats and on the bigger leagues they have specific player stats and not just team stats which is great to use. I hope these help you out and BOL.

I dont mean to throw all this at you but live betting o.5 or o1.5 is my wheelhouse I've got it down to a science. Also if you like to watch the game and not rely on live stats check out http://www.reddit.com/r/soccerstreams
and also on youtube in the search box type "Live" there's a channel called Live and you'll find more games there as well especially the smaller leagues

KATCHASE · 08-22-16, 01:52 PM

Wow...that's a lot of great info! I really appreciate it, Stackzilla. I'll be sure to check it out... And BOL to you too!

KATCHASE · 08-22-16, 02:18 PM

22/8

Live a 28'

Turkey » Super Lig » Galatasaray - Kardemir Karabuk
Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

KATCHASE · 08-22-16, 10:11 PM

RECORD: 5-0 (+5 Units)