Scottish Football Previews

**ThomasHB** · 12-26-15, 09:43 AM

Scottish Prem Late Notes

Ross County vs DundeeTwo key players doubtful for both sides here. Jackson Irvine in the middle of the park for County and more importantly for Dundee, Kevin Thomson in the centre of the park. Dundee didn't have to do too much to beat Accies 4-0 last week as individual errors by Hamilton basically handed the win to Dee on a plate. Kevin Thomson is key for them in the middle of the park as they simply don't have anyone who can replace him in this area and he is vital when it comes to them keeping possession and looking to control things in the middle. Jackson Irvine has also been influential for County this season in a similar position so I am also interested to see whether he makes it or not. I am keen on County -0.5 here as Dundee have not really impressed in quite some time, especially away from home. If Thomson is missing, I will advise the hosts here (County very reliable at home, Dundee poor on the road also) so it's now all about team line ups...

Ross County: Fox; Foster, Robertson, Davies, Foster; Gardyne, Murdoch, Woods, Franks; Curran, Boyce

Dundee: Bain; Irvine, McPake, Konrad, Holt; Low, McGowan; Harkins, Ross, Stewart; Hemmings

Irvine only makes the bench for County. Murdoch comes in alongside Woods in the middle. Gardyne returns to the side and we continue with the reliable pair up top Boyce and Curran (16 goals between them this season).

Kevin Thomson misses out altogether for Dee which is a blow for them. Irvine also starts with McGinn missing out in defence as does Etxabuguren. Rory Loy who is their second top goal scorer also doesn't start with Gary Harkins coming in.

A few changes for both sides here but Thomson is a bigger miss for Dundee in my opinion as County are a side with plenty of cover. Dundee don't impress me on the road and Dingwall isn't the easiest of places to go to at the best of times. Home win for me at 1.92+ here.

Advice: ROSS COUNTY -0.5 at 2.05 Sbobet (1.92+)
_____________________________

Aberdeen vs Inverness
I am keen on the home side here who have been back to their best form in recent games. Expecting them to be at full strength whereas Inverness still have a few key players doubtful in Ross Draper and Josh Meekings. Aberdeen have been back to their very best in recent games and they could have had 7 or 8 in a 4-0 win at Killie last weekend. Derek McInnes doesn't have to change things a lot with this side as it just about picks itself and with no selection problems, they should win this today. The -1 line isn't giving us much room though but if Inverness are still missing a few key men, it's very difficult to see anything but another comfortable win for the Dons. Huge motivation for them as well as they could go top of the league with a win and Celtic face a tricky trip to Tynecastle tomorrow afternoon.

Aberdeen: Ward; Logan, Taylor, Quinn, Considine; Shinnie, Jack; McGinn, McLean, Hayes; Rooney

Inverness: Williams; Raven, Warren, Devine, Tremarco; Draper, Wedderburn, Tansey, Vincent, Polworth; Storey

Strong from the Dons. Back four with Shinnie and Jack sitting midfielders (Flood misses out). The usual front four with McGinn and Hayes on the flanks and McLean behind Rooney up top.

Raven returns at right back for Inverness. Ross Draper makes it but Meekings misses out in defence. No Williams (bench), Christie or Vigurs. Weak bench for the visitors in my opinion.

The Dons are full strength here and I can't say the same for the visitors and also a few returning players may not be fully fit here. Dons -1 value at 1.90+ for me.

Advice: ABERDEEN -1 at 2.03 Sbobet (1.90+)

**ThomasHB** · 12-27-15, 08:13 AM

Hamilton 0-1 Kilmarnock : Loss
Ross County 5-2 Dundee : Win
Aberdeen 2-2 Inverness : Loss

Very unlucky with the over bet in Hamilton. 29 shots on goal and woodwork hit 3 times but just the 1 goal.

**ThomasHB** · 12-27-15, 08:13 AM

Huge game in the capital today...

Team news is important for us again here.

First of all, huge news for the home side who are missing Juanma after he was sent off against St Johnstone last weekend. He is their main attacking threat and Hearts will have to change things around up top. It's possible Osman Sow will play there switching in from a wide position or Gavin Reilly may be given a chance. Whatever Neilson chooses, they are certainly weaker without Juanma up top in terms of a goalscoring threat.

The big news for Celtic is top scorer Leigh Griffiths is rated doubtful after missing the last few games. Ciftci scored two against St Johnstone a few games ago but he hasn't really convinced whereas Griffiths is proven in Scotland. Celtic haven't really impressed in recent games. They have been getting better results away from Celtic Park though as they have failed to win in 4 there. However, away wins against St Johnstone and Ross County definitely flattered them and you could also say the same about the Inverness game. Saints missed at least 3 one on one chances against them whereas Griffiths was the difference in the other two games and even then, the result was definitely flattering and didn't tell the true story of the match.

Hearts held Celtic to a 0-0 draw at Celtic Park earlier in the season before losing 2-1 in the cup at Tynecastle a few months ago. Griffiths was the difference again in that match with a wonderful solo goal before assisting the second. Overall there wasn't too much in the match. If he is out, Hearts will take a lot of confidence from it. Neilson will look to contain Celtic first of all knowing they haven't been at their best in terms of creating chances recently.

There is also huge pressure on Ronny Deila after their abject performance in the 2-1 defeat at home to Motherwell last weekend. Celtic have been known for bouncing back in games like this but performances have not suggested that lately and if they are still missing Griffiths (I am now hearing reports suggesting he is still out), they may struggle to win this today.

Hearts: Alexander; Paterson, Augustyn, Rossi, Oshaniwa; Buaben, Gomis; Nicholson, Djoum, Sow; Reilly

Celtic: Gordon; Lustig, Boyata, Simunovic, Tierney; Bitton, Johansen; McGregor, Rogic, Armstrong; Ciftci

Just the one change for Hearts as Reilly is given the chance up top as he replaces the suspended Juanma. Djoum has looked like a great signing for Hearts and will fancy his chances at this Celtic back line.

The two main attacking threats for Celtic, Griffiths and Commons are both missing which is a huge blow. It's definitely not the strongest Celtic side here and Hearts will surely fancy their chances of taking something from this.

I think this will be tight and without Griff up top for Celtic and no Commons, Hearts will be looking to contain Celtic and they are certainly capable of creating chances with this side and also taking into account how vulnerable the Celtic defence has been lately (they were lucky it was just 2 conceded against Motherwell last weekend). Clear value on the home side for me and I'm going to take my chances with the better line 0.75 at 2.06+ value.

Advice: HEARTS +0.75 at 2.21 Sbobet (2.06+)

**ThomasHB** · 12-29-15, 12:25 PM

Hearts 2-2 Celtic.

A great game on Sunday and a 2-2 draw was just about fair. Hearts +0.75 was a win for us.

**ThomasHB** · 12-29-15, 12:29 PM

Ross County vs Kilmarnock

No pre match bet here as the odds have come down just a little too much but I will share my thoughts on the game...

News has got out about the Kilmarnock situation pretty quickly here with the opening odds for County of -0.75 1.86 now down to -1 at 1.70! The visitors have been hit by a sickness bug and adding that on to their injury problems, they really won't fancy this long trip to Dingwall on a miserable Tuesday night.

County were outstanding on Saturday hitting Dundee for 5 and it was a match they controlled despite going behind twice. They had 66% of possession and over 20 efforts on goal. Liam Boyce netted a brilliant hat trick and alongside Craig Curran, County probably pose one of the biggest attacking threats in the division on their day (Boyce already with 17 goals this season).

Killie won 1-0 away at Hamilton at the weekend but they did have to hang on towards the end and I would have to say they did get a little bit lucky considering the chances Accies missed. It was an important win for Gary Locke who is under pressure and I think that could be the case again after the match tonight. They are already missing a few attacking players in Rory McKenzie and Kallum Higginbotham through injury and with many players now struggling due to a sickness bug, it's difficult to give them any sort of chance tonight. Barbour and Connolly pulled out close to kick off on Saturday and they are just a few of several players who are struggling to make this game tonight. County absolutely hammered them 4-0 in Kilmarnock earlier in the season and bossed the midfield department that day and I can only see this going the same way tonight with no proper bite in this Killie side, especially taking into account the problems they have right now.

No problems for the home side who have a full squad to choose from and the return of Jackson Irvine in the middle of the park is absolutely key for them this evening (returned as sub at weekend and made it 3-2 within a few minutes of coming on).

Right now, I can't advise anything as the odds have just came down a little too much. LIVE: ROSS COUNTY -1 at 1.96+ will be a bet for me and I will be following that live in play and hope to get it as long as there is no early goal.

As a smaller investment, I wouldn't put anyone off County running away with this and something like 3 or 4-0 is not impossible tonight. I really like the Staggies at home and the visitors situation is absolutely desperate this evening. (It's also a 4 to 5 hour away trip on a Tuesday evening).

**ThomasHB** · 12-30-15, 08:15 AM

Ross County won 3-2 last night but scored early so we missed out on the live advice which would have been void anyway.

**ThomasHB** · 12-30-15, 08:16 AM

5 games in the Premiership today, one of them is an early kick off at 3pm and I am involved in that as shown below...

Hamilton vs Inverness
Advice: OVER 2.25 Goals at 1.88 Pinnacle (1.80+)
This is a very nice line here and it doesn't reflect the way both of these sides have been playing lately. Games involving both sides have been very open and with both teams just 2 points above the relegation play off zone, getting all 3 points would be a massive result today. Starting off with Hamilton and it remains a mystery how we only seen 1 goal in their match on Saturday at home to Kilmarnock. There was an incredible 29 shots on goal in that game with the woodwork also being hit a few times but some bad misses and last ditch clearances prevented more goals with Killie hanging on to win 1-0. That heaps more pressure on Martin Canning as Accies have now just won one of their last 10 games. Defensively, they have been giving up far too many chances lately and previous to the game on Saturday, they lost 4 against Dundee and 3 at home to Ross County. On to Inverness who have been involved in some dramatic games lately. We have seen at least 3 goals in their last 6 games with 4 of those having 4 goals. For a side that is usually very solid defensively they have been conceding a lot of cheap goals lately and like Accies, they are giving up a lot of chances. Inverness have had a lot of injury problems this season and although they are starting to ease they are still missing Josh Meekings at the back and the changes in their defensive line have certainly unsettled things for them. Going forward, Miles Storey has been an excellent addition for them up top and young Liam Polworth has really come on to a game as well and he opened the scoring against Aberdeen at the weekend. One thing is for sure, we will see chances in this game and the value is certainly there on the goal line. Defensively, both teams have looked very shaky and knowing the importance of this game today, we should see both managers going for the 3 points. If we can get a goal in the opening half, we should have an open game and hanging on to leads is something both teams have not been able to do very well at all this season. Regarding the weather conditions in Hamilton, heavy wind and rain this morning but it has eased now and there are no problems which will have an impact on our advice (Accies also have an artificial surface so no ball problems on grass).

**pattymayo** · 12-30-15, 11:50 AM

cheers great call

**ThomasHB** · 12-30-15, 12:14 PM

Thank you.

Hamilton 3-4 Inverness

Easy win here. End to end match.

**ThomasHB** · 12-30-15, 02:14 PM

One for tonight...

Hearts vs Dundee United Late Notes

Hearts: Alexander; McGhee, Ozturk, Rossi, Oshaniwa; Buaben, Gomis; Nicholson, King, Sow; Reilly

Dundee Utd: Szromnik; Dixon, Gunning, Morris, Durnan; McGowan, Rankin, Demel, Fraser; Erskine; McKay

A few changes for Hearts here. Key right back Callum Paterson (started 18 from 19 games) misses out so Jordan McGhee returns to the squad. McGhee is a good young player but he is more familiar playing on the other side of defence so this does weaken Hearts. Oshaniwa hasn't looked great on the left side either from what I have seen, I think this is an area United will target this evening. Augustyn also misses out in the centre of defence so Ozturk returns from injury to slot in there. Billy King for Djoum is the other change.

Hearts had a tough game against Celtic at the weekend in that 2-2 draw and it has clearly had an impact on the side as they are obviously suffering a few knocks. Adding to that, top scorer Juanma is still suspended so young Gavin Reilly is given a chance up top again.

United remain in serious trouble at the foot of the table. They are 10 points from safety so every game is absolutely key for them from now until the end of the season. Mixu Paatelainen has not had an immediate impact on the side but there are some small signs there that they are capable of turning this around. The experience of Guy Demel in midfield for example is a good signing for them as they are a very young squad. Billy McKay up front is proven at this level and if Erskine is on form, he is capable of giving the Hearts full backs some problems tonight especially as it is a changed home side in that department. They were unlucky not to win in Inverness in their last game blowing a 2-1 lead in the final seconds.

United didn't have a game at the weekend due to the weather so they will also be the much fresher side going into this match tonight. Hearts do have a few injury problems as we have already discussed and they are still without Juanma through suspension. The league table would suggest this is a comfortable home win tonight but I think United are capable of getting something and I do think the 0.75 start for the visitors is very generous taking everything into account. I have to take a chance on them and make them value 1.82+ with the 0.75 start.

Advice: DUNDEE UNITED +0.75 at 1.92 Sbobet (1.82+)

**silvap** · 12-30-15, 02:41 PM

Excelent work overall. On this last one! cheers sir

**korkysixty9** · 12-30-15, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by silvap

Excelent work overall. On this last one! cheers sir

need hearts to win, 3-2 as now and dundee utd also down to 10 men
but need 2 goals in the aberdeen game.
celtic cost me £90 other day with the injury time goal

**ThomasHB** · 12-30-15, 04:53 PM

Hearts 3-2 United.

Half loss. United played full second half with 10 men after red card. Could have been different if stayed 11 vs 11 I reckon.

**ThomasHB** · 01-02-16, 07:07 AM

Scottish Premiership

Inverness vs Ross County
Advice: INVERNESS +0 at 2.08 Sbobet (1.94+)
A very competitive Highland derby awaits here and I have to say I believe the odds are all wrong for this one. Yes County have had a better season so far but Inverness are also in decent form coming into this game and sit just 5 points behind County now having broken into the top six. They also have a game in hand and I really believe they should be narrow favourites for this match. Giving County the edge is just something I don't agree with here. It has been tough for John Hughes at Inverness. They had a memorable season last year winning the Scottish Cup and finishing high up the table. After losing key players it was always going to be difficult for them to repeat that and despite a slow start to this campaign, we are now starting to see signs of them being a top six club again. They have also had a lot of problems with injuries this season but those are now starting to ease and having the likes of Tansey, Draper and Warren back in the side makes a huge difference to this Inverness team. Ideally we would want Josh Meekings in at the back alongside Warren but Danny Devine is capable of covering there. Inverness still remain a much more physical side next to County and I think this is something Hughes will be looking to capitalise on today. Up front Miles Storey has the pace to cause problems for what is not the quickest defence in the league and again, this is something the home side will be looking to exploit. Inverness are unbeaten in their last 4 games and won a thrilling game 4-3 against Hamilton on Wednesday. The goals from Tansey and Polworth in that game were quite incredible and having won it in the final seconds, that should give them a huge boost for today. County beat Killie 3-2 on Tuesday night and although it was a game they should have won more comfortably, they were still the dominant side. They have also been involved in a few high scoring games lately and defensively, both teams have looked vulnerable in recent matches. County have been playing with a 4-4-2 in recent games and the front men Boyce and Curran are one of the best partnerships in the league right now and they have been scoring for fun. As I said though, Inverness are a very physical side and I do believe this game is better set up for them than County and with it being a derby match, it will be very hard fought and competitive and again, this suits the home side better. Overall, I believe the odds to be way off here and I would have the edge for the home side. 1.94+ at home with the draw on our side is excellent value in my book.

Motherwell vs Hamilton
Advice: MOTHERWELL -0.25 at 1.90 Pinnacle (1.72+)
Two sides who have been going in completely different directions lately with Motherwell winning 3 in a row under new manager Mark McGhee and Accies on a 4 game losing streak. It's also just 1 win in their last 11 for Hamilton and that was a fortunate one at Dundee United. The pressure is building on Martin Canning and morale has to be low after losing 4-3 to Inverness on Wednesday with the final kick of the ball. They fought back to level twice in that game but somehow still lost it right at the death. Absolutely nothing has been going for Accies and defensively, they have been found out lately. They have conceded 12 goals in their last 4 games and their early season form has completely vanished. Things are way different at Motherwell right now and for the first time in a long time, there is a feel good factor about this club. They are unbeaten in 4 and have won their last 3 games which includes a deserved 2-1 win at Celtic Park. They were 2-0 winners at home to St Johnstone on Wednesday night to keep the good run going and next to Hamilton they are in a much better place all round right now. McGhee has spoke about the positive impact his experienced players have had on the team and I couldn't agree more. In particular McManus, Hammell, Lasley, Pearson and McDonald are all hugely experienced players and having them all available again and playing in the same squad has been excellent for Motherwell. No major selection problems for either manager here and we should see similar starting line ups to what we seen from both midweek. A clear edge for the home side here in my book with everything looking very very bleak for the visitors right now. Value on -0.25 at 1.72+.

**ThomasHB** · 01-03-16, 07:05 AM

Inverness 2-0 : WIN
Motherwell 3-3 : Half Loss

Motherwell lose a goal from penalty kick in 96 minutes. Very unlucky. Ouch!

**ThomasHB** · 01-16-16, 08:35 AM

Two bets for me today...

St Johnstone vs Hamilton
Advice: ST JOHNSTONE -0.75 at 2.13 Sbobet (2.00+)
Two teams that have not been in form lately but I still think Saints have offered much more recently and the same cannot be said for Accies who have been dreadful. I am actually surprised Martin Canning remains in a job after they were thumped 4-1 by League Two Annan last weekend and it could have been more. Their defence has completely deserted them in recent games conceding 3 at Motherwell, 4 at home to Inverness and 4 at Dundee. Confidence has to be low going into this game and I don't think Canning is the man to save them this season. 99% of the fans have also lost faith in him which won't help the side and there is a genuine lack of quality in defence with this team just now. Going forward, they are capable of creating chances but they will have a big problem today as they are missing arguably their most influential forward player Dougie Imrie (started all 21 league games, 5 goals) who is suspended. Saints have also hit a bit of slump lately and I was surprised at their home defeat in the cup to Kilmarnock last weekend. However, performances have still been ok and they haven't been playing as bad as results suggest. For example they were unfortunate not to get something in the 2-0 defeat at Motherwell and dominated at home against Hearts without scoring (also missed a penalty). Graham Cummins is available again for them up top today which is a boost as they have struggled to score in recent games. For me, Saints are still playing some decent stuff and there is much more positivity about the club with Tommy Wright capable of turning things around as he has shown time and time again. I don't get that same feeling with Hamilton/Canning and missing Imrie negates their attacking threat a hell of a lot today. Saints have already scored 8 goals in 2 games against Accies this season and I expect another comfortable home win this afternoon against a side that are in free fall.

Hearts vs Motherwell
Advice: HEARTS -0.75 at 2.14 Sbobet (2.06+)
I have been impressed with Motherwell since Mark McGhee took over as they have found a bit of form and they are now starting to climb the table. However, I am keen to oppose them today with a few key selection problems going to hamper them. McGhee has found a settled side to work with in recent games but he will have to really change things in the middle of the park today and I think it could leave them vulnerable to what is a very physical Hearts midfield. Captain Keith Lasley who is key for the visitors is suspended and his recent partner in midfield Liam Grimshaw has been recalled by parent club Man Utd. It means Motherwell will have to completely change things in a key area of the pitch and the replacements they currently have simply don't offer the same quality. Hearts won a great cup tie 1-0 against Aberdeen last weekend and that ought to give them confidence going back into a league run after a few questionable results/performances. They have a really settled squad now and manager Robbie Neilson has no problems to deal with today. He has plenty of options to choose from in the middle of the park with Morgaro Gomis back from suspension and it's in the middle of the park I can see this game being won today with Hearts having more quality and experience there taking into account those missings for Motherwell. The Jambos are very very good at Tynecastle and I expect them to halt the good form of the visitors today with those two players missing being key to our investment here.

**ThomasHB** · 01-19-16, 02:13 PM

St Johnstone 0-0. Loss.
Hearts 6-0. Win.

Small profit on Saturday.

**ThomasHB** · 01-19-16, 02:14 PM

For tonight...

Celtic vs Hamilton

We were against Hamilton at the weekend and spoke about their poor run of form before the match. The game at St Johnstone was very poor but Saints were denied a stone wall penalty late in the game and Accies never really offered much. My thoughts on them haven't changed much even after that game and I still think they will continue to struggle, especially away from home.

Celtic played some nice stuff in a 4-1 win at Tannadice on Friday night (could easily have been 6 or 7) but will they show the same form back at Celtic Park as they have struggled here in recent games.

I would expect Izaguirre to come in at left back tonight with Tierney rested and possibly Bitton back in the defensive midfield role? I don't think Accies will change it too much but Imrie is back after suspension which boosts them going forward.

Celtic: Gordon; Lustig, Ambrose, Simunovic, Izaguirre; McGregor, Bitton; Mackay-Steven, Rogic, Armstrong; Griffiths

Hamilton: McGovern; Gordon, Tagliapetra, Devlin, Kurakins; Crawford, MacKinnon, Docherty, Gillespie, Kurtaj; D'Acol

Tierney is rested as predicted with Izaguirre coming in. Bitton returns with Johansen dropping out. Commons also misses out with Mackay Steven starting and he has to start showing some form again sooner rather than later.

Gillespie for Lyon is the only change for Accies from the weekend and I am surprised Imrie only makes the bench.

This game is all about the first goal here. Accies will play to stop Celtic going forward and I don't think they will offer too much themselves in an attacking sense, I may well be wrong but that line up doesn't suggest that for me.

Celtic put in their best performance in some time in the game on Friday and they got the result along with the performance and both are key for me. Griffiths is in top form up top as is Rogic in behind and I would expect them to have too much for the visitors here.

Not always my favourite type of situation giving away with this start but I do feel the -2 line is very 'safe' on Celtic tonight as they should win this comfortably and move six points clear of Aberdeen at the top. There is also a feel good atmosphere around the club again I feel with new signing Erik Sviatchenko to be welcomed at half time. I think we have two sides going in different directions here and the class difference should be too much. Value -2 at 1.80+ for me.

Advice: CELTIC -2 at 1.90 Sbobet (1.80+)

**ThomasHB** · 01-19-16, 05:10 PM

Celtic 8-1 Hamilton. Win.

**Don_Omarion** · 01-19-16, 06:44 PM

good luck bro

**ThomasHB** · 01-22-16, 12:04 PM

One bet in the game tonight for me...

Aberdeen vs Dundee
Advice: OVER 2.75 Goals at 2.04 Sbobet (1.90+)
Friday night football at Pittodrie and I am looking forward to a very exciting game tonight. Both of these sides are dealing with defensive issues of late and it makes me even more confident that we will see a wide open encounter this evening. Dundee remain without central defenders James McPake (16 starts) and Julien Etxabeguren (12 starts). Ex Celtic defender Darren O'Dea made his debut for them last week at Partick. He brings a lot of experience to this side and is clearly a very good signing for them. We have seen at least 3 goals in the last 5 games for Dundee and 4 of these have had 4 or more. Their defence has changed a lot and they are a side that give up plenty of chances but will also create with Hemmings and Stewart going forward. They have scored 12 goals in their last 4 games and with Aberdeen not at full strength in defence right now, Paul Hartley will fancy going at this back line tonight. I don't think he will change it too much from the 4-2 win at Partick last weekend. The home side need to keep winning to keep up any hopes of a title challenge against Celtic. They remain 6 points behind and really can't afford any other slip ups especially in games like this when they are expected to win. They came from a goal down to beat Ross County last weekend and considering they had 10 men from 1 down in that game, it was an impressive performance. Derek McInnes actually lined up 4-4-2 last week which was a change from his usual 4-2-3-1 formation. That could have simply been to match the usual County formation or because of a lack of options right now. Willo Flood and Ryan Jack are usually the two holding midfielders for Aberdeen but both are injured right now. Shinnie may move in to this position as he has done many times with Kenny McLean (or young Craig Storie who started last weekend for the first time this season) dropping back but whatever he chooses to do, it certainly leaves them more vulnerable from a defensive point of view in my book. Central defender Mark Reynolds is suspended so I would expect Andy Considine to come in at central defence with Graeme Shinnie playing at left back meaning we may see a similar formation to last week. They have also a bit of a goalkeeping problem right now with Danny Ward returning to Liverpool and it means Scott Brown has come in again and he doesn't offer them the same stability. Whatever way Derek chooses to line up here, they are certainly not at full strength from a defensive point of view and the same can be said for the visitors. Going forward though, both looked very good last weekend and for me, this has the makings of an entertaining game and I certainly expect to see plenty of chances for both sides. Value on the goal line for me at 1.90+.

**trobin31** · 01-22-16, 01:07 PM

Any thoughts on the side there?

**ThomasHB** · 02-02-16, 02:15 PM

Partick Thistle vs Motherwell

Only one point separates these sides in the league and this should be a very tight encounter. Both sides haven't won in their last 4 games but Motherwell were very unlucky not to pick up all 3 points at Dundee on Saturday as they led 2-1 in the closing stages before the home side were awarded a very harsh penalty kick and the match finished 2-2. Apart from the 6-0 hammering at Hearts (they were missing two key players), they have definitely improved under Mark McGhee and I don't think there will be much in this tonight.

Partick: Cerny; Miller, Seaborne, Frans, Booth; Osman, Welsh; Elliot, Bannigan, Lawless; Doolan

Motherwell: Ripley; Law, McManus, Hall, Hammell; Johnson, Lasley, Cadden, Pearson; McDonald, Moult

Key central defender Liam Lindsay is still suspended for Thistle and key right back Dumbuya also misses out (33 starts between them.

Motherwell go with the same side that played well at Dundee on Saturday. They have signed midfielder Morgaro Gomis from Hearts and I am slightly surprised he doesn't come straight in alongside Lasley in the middle. However, young Chris Cadden played well at the weekend so keeps his place.

This should be tight but with those defensive missings for Thistle, I think Motherwell will fancy their chances here and I have to rate them the value call with a start. I also think their bench is stronger if needed later in the game. I can't see the visitors losing this one and we have to advise them with the +0.25 start.

Advice: MOTHERWELL +0.25 at 2.05 Sbobet (1.96+)

**ThomasHB** · 02-03-16, 02:31 PM

Aberdeen vs Celtic

Huge pressure on Ronny Deila after the semi final on Sunday as Celtic lost 3-1 to Ross County. Celtic started very well and raced into a 1-0 lead before they conceded a penalty and County hit back. The Celtic defence remains vulnerable and if Aberdeen play with their recent 4-4-2 formation again tonight, it will certainly show that Derek McInnes also believes this Celtic defence is there to be got at. Deila continues to change it around and they are very very vulnerable, especially from crossed balls and set pieces.

If Aberdeen want to maintain their hopes of a title challenge this is also a game they have to win. In recent games they have played with a different formation with no Ryan Jack or Willo Flood available in the sitting positions so McInnes has played the old 4-4-2. Apart from a 0-0 draw with Partick their recent games have been very open. Even in their last game against Dundee which finished 1-0, there were several chances and a better side than Dundee would have taken the chances they were given.

I get the feeling this will be wide open but I am going to wait for line ups before going any further just to be sure...

Aberdeen: Brown; Logan, Taylor, Reynolds, Shinnie; McGinn, McLean, Storie, Hayes; Rooney, Church

Celtic: Gordon; Lustig, Boyata, Sviatchenko, Tierney; Bitton, Brown; Armstrong, McGregor, Mackay Steven; Griffiths

It looks like a 4-4-2 as predicted for Dons. Very little defensive cover in that midfield with no Jack or Flood and new striker Simon Church is thrown straight in alongside top scorer Adam Rooney up top.

Sviatchenko comes in at central defence for Celtic alongside Boyata meaning it's all change in there again. Scott Brown makes his first start in over a month in the sitting position and you have to say that is a risk from Deila. The front four stay the same as they were on Sunday. New signing Colin Kazim Richards is on the bench.

This has a very open feel for me. Aberdeen need to win and their set up looks very open and goalkeeper Scott Brown is not the best at this level. The Celtic defence remains under severe pressure as does Ronny Deila and I think that is another reason we will see Aberdeen really go for this tonight. There should be chances and goals at both ends for me and I have to make the goal line the value bet.

Advice: OVER 2.75 Goals at 2.05 Sbobet (1.94+)

**ThomasHB** · 02-10-16, 02:27 PM

Ross County vs Hearts

You know my thoughts on this Ross County team, especially at home where they play a very attack minded 4-4-2 formation. They have goals right throughout their team even scoring 3 against Celtic last weekend and Jim McIntyre has so many attacking options to choose from which has just been boosted further the arrival of David Goodwillie from Aberdeen.

Hearts let a 2-0 lead slip in the derby on Sunday and they have some serious defensive problems for this game tonight. Regular central defenders Augustyn and Rossi are both suspended and Ozturk is expected to miss out through injury. Holding midfielder Buaben is also suspended.

Ross County: Fox; Foster, Davies, Quinn, Fraser; McShane, Irvine, Woods, Gardyne; Goodwillie, Boyce

Hearts: Alexander; Paterson, Souttar, McGhee, Oshaniwa; Nicholson, Pallardo, Djoum, Cowie; Walker; Juanma

Top scorer Liam Boyce returns to the starting eleven for County. David Goodwillie is also given a start alongside him and Gardyne will offer a threat in behind those two. A very attacking line up as usual from County.

A very suspect looking Hearts defence which has completely changed. New signing John Souttar is thrown straight in along side fellow youngster Jordan McGhee who has recently been out of favour. Oshaniwa has also looked very vulnerable at left back in the games I have seen him in this season. Going forward, plenty of attacking threat from Hearts though and Juanma is recalled up top.

11 of the last 14 games involving County have been over and they have scored 31 goals in these games. They have also kept a clean sheet in just 2 of those games and even conceded 2 to junior side Linlithgow Rose in the cup on Saturday. Hearts have been a bit inconsistent in terms of games being over/under but the changes they have made in defence tonight completely sways it for me tonight and the return of Juanma is also a very good move in my opinion for them going forward.

Two very good attacking line ups for me here and at the prices on offer, Over 2.5 is easily the stand out value for me here with 1.82+ good enough in my book.

Advice: OVER 2.5 Goals at 1.96 Sbobet (1.82+)

**silvap** · 02-11-16, 11:41 AM

missed the pick but excelent analysis as usual sir!

**ThomasHB** · 02-11-16, 12:55 PM

Ross County 0-3 Hearts

WIN.

You can also follow picks on my blog, although I can't post all info on there... www.thomashb.blogspot.com

**dave sperling** · 02-11-16, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by ThomasHB

Ross County 0-3 Hearts

WIN.

You can also follow picks on my blog, although I can't post all info on there... www.thomashb.blogspot.com

Thank you

**ThomasHB** · 02-13-16, 09:26 AM

Hamilton vs Dundee United
Advice: OVER 2.75 Goals at 2.07 Sbobet (1.94+)
United remain 11 points adrift at the bottom of the table but with 2 games in hand, they still have an outside chance of avoiding the drop and they will be looking for all 3 points today especially with Motherwell and Kilmarnock also playing each other. United are starting to hit a bit of form under Mixu Paatelainen and their last 5 league games have seen at least 3 goals with 4 of those having at least 4 goals. They have no other option but to really go for 3 points in every game now and we have seen a very fluent attacking style from them in recent weeks. It's the way Paatelainen has always set his teams up so it's no surprise. They will take a lot of heart from winning in the cup last weekend and they previously beat Kilmarnock 5-1. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 games and defensively, they have changed things around far too often for my liking. Accies are always a threat at home on the artificial surface and they will know a win here will put distance between themselves and the bottom of the table. Key news for me here is that holding midfielder Darian MacKinnon is suspended for Accies as is defender Garcia Tena. MacKinnon is key for the home side in breaking up the play and they have no other player that can replace him in that position in my opinion. For me, the set up of this suggests we should see a very end to end game here and I would expect goals at both ends. The first goal really opens this up given the situation both teams find themselves in. Value on Over 2.75 at 1.94+

**ThomasHB** · 02-15-16, 12:39 PM

Very poor on Saturday, awful game at Hamilton. 0-0. Apologies, completely misread it.

**ThomasHB** · 02-15-16, 12:41 PM

Inverness vs Aberdeen
Advice: INVERNESS +0.5 at 1.97 Sbobet (1.86+)
The pressure is all on Aberdeen for this game and I can't help but think they are far too short here giving away a full half start. A win would see them go joint top with Celtic again but I have spoke about this Inverness side a lot throughout the season and they are not an easy side to play against, especially at home. The Dons are on an impressive run in the league and have won their last 4 including that win against Celtic, however Inverness themselves have found a little bit of consistency recently and they have lost just 1 of their last 10 games. We can also look at the two games between the sides this season so far with Inverness deservedly winning 2-1 here back in September and picking up a 2-2 draw at Pittodrie in December and it was only a late Dons penalty that rescued them that day. We also have to think about the pressure on this side right now and whether they will deal with it. Yes they have beaten Celtic recently and then beat St Johnstone 4-3 but earlier in the season they folded when they could have ran away from Celtic and for me, there is certainly much more pressure on them than the Glasgow side who have been here and done it all before. I have been impressed with Inverness recently and I always feel it is one of the toughest places in the country to go and try and pick up all 3 points. For me, it's all about the odds here and I can't help feel Aberdeen have been a little bit overrated with the -0.5 line just too much for me. With the draw on our side, I have to make the Highland side the value call in this game at 1.86+.

**ThomasHB** · 02-15-16, 05:04 PM

FT: Inverness 3-1 Aberdeen

WIN

**ThomasHB** · 02-16-16, 01:20 PM

Dundee United vs Motherwell
Advice: DUNDEE UNITED -0.5 at 2.00 Sbobet (1.84+)
For United to survive this season, it still remains a huge challenge for them but if they were to pick a team to play at home in the league right now, you would probably go for Motherwell. The visitors are in free fall having lost 5 of their last 6 games and their performance in the 2-0 defeat at home to Kilmarnock on Saturday was worrying. Killie wanted the win from the first whistle much more and it now leaves Motherwell in that dreaded play off position at the bottom of the table. United still sit bottom 12 points behind 'Well' but they do have a game in hand so a win here and winning their games in hand could possibly see the gap narrow to 6 points (they also have 2 in hand over 10th place Killie). That should be enough to give United fans a lot of hope they can pull off the miraculous escape especially as we still have the split to come where all teams in the bottom six will play each other again. Before they move forward though, this has to go down as a must win game tonight but it is one I believe they are capable of winning. Their form has been poor for much of the campaign so to have lost just 1 of their last 5 competitive games (which was against Celtic) shows that Mixu Paatelainen is slowly getting some improvement from this United side and the fact they have won their last 2 home games will also give them confidence. In their last two at Tannadice, they were 1-0 winners against Partick in the cup 10 days ago and previously hammered Kilmarnock 5-1 in the league with a superb attacking performance from the very start. Paatelainen has added some steel to this United side with Guy Demel settled in midfield and Paul Paton also back fully fit. Edward Ofere (I remember him looking very impressive in his short stint with Inverness last season) is an excellent addition up top to give Billy McKay competition. United only drew 0-0 at Hamilton on Saturday in what was an awful game of football but they saved a point with Kawashima saving a late Accies penalty and to keep another clean sheet at least shows further progression from a defensive point of view. Back at Tannadice they have to fancy this against a Motherwell side that has looked very poor in recent games. The Steelmen were unlucky to lose to a late Thistle goal at Firhill two weeks back but their performance against Kilmarnock on Saturday was dreadful and they have yet to win in the league in 2016. Another big problem for the visitors tonight is the absence of key midfielder Stephen Pearson (18 starts, 5 goals) who is suspended and strength in depth is not something this Motherwell side is known for. This is a huge chance for United to really make a statement to the sides above them tonight and I think they will do just that by picking up a vital 3 points. I have simply seen much more from United than the visitors have shown lately, results and performance, and their squad is certainly looking in much better shape also. Value on United -0.5 at 1.84+ for me.

**ThomasHB** · 02-17-16, 05:26 AM

0-3 Motherwell. A very harsh scoreline and the goal right on half time was a killer for us. United should have made it 1-1 with two big misses but not to be. Bad game for us.