Trojanman's MLS Picks

[TrojanMan8]

i hope for us both that its 0-2 result.. i took redbulls -1

I could live with that . BOL tonight lucas

[lucasdawg]

oh shiet that woked out perf, nice work

[TrojanMan8]

Two quick goals in the first half had me concerned, but we both made out here. Congrats!

[TrojanMan8]

25. Seattle Sounders PK at Colorado Rapids +104 (5D)

Dempsey questionable for this game. Even with Deuce out, Seattle still have enough to win at Colorado. I believe Colorado's 4-0 win last week has a lot to do with how FC Dallas played, not the Rapids improvement. 18 game winless streaks don't lie.

Pros:
- Seattle will have all its midfield players for the first time this season
- Seattle's chances to win increase if Dempsey is able to go
- Colorado has yet to score at home
- Seattle won all 3 meetings against Colorado last year.

Cons:
- A 0-0 or 1-1 draw are good possibilities

[TrojanMan8]

24. Under 2.5 NY Red Bulls vs. San Jose Earthquakes +100 (BM)
25. Seattle Sounders PK at Colorado Rapids +104 (5D)

Record: 10.5-14-0.5 (-5.27u)

[TrojanMan8]

26. Under 2.5 New England Revolution vs. Real Salt Lake -118 (5D)

Pros:
- NE is 8th (out of 10) in the East in total goals per game at 1.8 G/game (13 in 7 games)
- RSL is 8th (out of 10) in the West in total goals per game at 1.9 G/game (11 in 6 games). Excluding 3-3 draw with Philly, that's 5 total goals in 5 games
- NE has gone under in 2 of 3 games at home
- RSL has gone under in all 3 away games with 1 total goal scored

Cons:
- Last 4 games (over 4 years) between these teams have all gone over

All 3 games tomorrow look good for the over, especially Seattle-Portland.

[TrojanMan8]

26. Under 2, 2.5 Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting KC -109 (5D)

Pros:
- KC is 6th (out of 10) in the West in total goals per game at 2.1 G/game (15 in 7 games)
- Houston is 10th (out of 10) in the West in total goals per game at 1.4 G/game (10 in 7 games).
- All 3 Houston home games have gone under

Cons:
- Sacrificing half a bet to reduce the juice

[TrojanMan8]

^ #27

28. Over 2.5 Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders +100 (BM)

Pros:
- 4 out of last 5 Cascadia Cup matches have gone over, including last 3 in Portland
- Both teams have the capability to score
- Chad Marshall is out for Seattle, 3-time defender of the year (including last year)
- Timbers have a tendency to score and give up goals late in matches (7 goals after 75' in 7 matches)

Cons:
- MLS has been very inconsistent this year
Cons:
- Sacrificing half a bet to reduce the juice

[TrojanMan8]

26. Under 2.5 New England Revolution vs. Real Salt Lake -118 (5D)
27. Under 2, 2.5 Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting KC -109 (5D)
28. Over 2.5 Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders +100 (BM)

Record: 10.5-17-0.5 (-8.54u)

That weekend sucked. Onto the next games.

[TrojanMan8]

29. New York Red Bulls -1 vs. Colorado Rapids +121 (5D)
NYRB played at home during the weekend and got a disappointing draw vs LA Galaxy in a game they controlled for most of the match. Colorado has to make a trip to the east coast. I think NYRB gets the win here.

30. Club America ML at Montreal Impact -138 (BM)
Montreal were thrashed at Houston over the weekend. I know that the focus on this game probably took away from that performance. Montreal's only results this year have come in the CCL, but America had plenty of chances the second half of the last game between these two. In the previous round, America was down 3-1 after the first leg and scored 5 first half goals. I think America rises to the moment again and wins this game rather easily.

[TrojanMan8]

29. New York Red Bulls -1 vs. Colorado Rapids +121 (5D)
30. Club America ML at Montreal Impact -138 (BM)

Record: 11.5-18-0.5 (-8.54u)

31. San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 at Real Salt Lake +103 (5D)
San Jose had the week off while RSL traveled cross country and got thrashed at New England. San Jose gets a result here.

[lucasdawg]

is over 2.5 good?

[TrojanMan8]

is over 2.5 good?

Sorry, I missed this earlier. In general RSL's defense is inconsistent. Some games they get a clean sheet and other games they give up 3-4. I would've recommended to stay away.

[TrojanMan8]

31. San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 at Real Salt Lake +103 (5D)

Record: 12.5-18-0.5 (-7.51u)

32. Over 2.5 Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union +105 (BM)
Toronto has gone over 4 of 6 games. The Union have gone over 5 of 9 games, including 2 of 4 at home. Toronto have played terrible defense this year while playing their 7th straight on the road since their stadium isn't finished. Getting plus money on the over is good value.

33. DC United ML vs. Columbus Crew +169 (5D)
DC is in good form as they just beat league leaders Vancouver on the road. Columbus has 2 draws and a loss on the road thus far. I think DC wins here at least half the time. I expected this price to be in the +120 to +135 range, so this is another value play.

Leans on tomorrow's other games: NE/NYRB Over 2.5, LA -1, VAN/POR draw

[TrojanMan8]

32. Over 2.5 Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union +105 (BM)
33. DC United ML vs. Columbus Crew +169 (5D)

Record: 13.5-19-0.5 (-6.82u)

34. Chicago Fire +0.5 at Sporting KC +137 (5D)
Chicago is in good form and well rested as they've won 3 games at home and had a week off for the month of April. Sporting KC has won once in 4 games at home and played that wild 4-4 game at Houston last week. Chicago gets a result here at least half the time.

Other leans: SEA ML

[TrojanMan8]

35. Chicago Fire +0.5 at Sporting KC +137 (5D)


Record: 13.5-20-0.5 (-7.82u)

[TrojanMan8]

36. Chicago Fire ML vs. Real Salt Lake +115 (5D)

Chicago is in decent form. Real Salt Lake played on Wednesday in the rain-delayed game at home vs. LA. I think the short turnaround plus an early game plays into Chicago's hands. RSL is struggling right now. I'll take Chicago at home for + money.

[TrojanMan8]

36. Chicago Fire ML vs. Real Salt Lake +115 (5D)

Record: 13.5-21-0.5 (-8.82u)

37. DC United ML vs. Orlando City +118 (5D)
Orlando is coming off a 2-goal comeback at home to draw with New England while DC drew at home with Sporting KC over the weekend. Orlando is battling injuries and lose midfielder Okugo to card accumulation. DC and GK Bill Hamid have allowed the fewest goals in the league. Orlando often struggles to score and to put shots on goal. DC should win a low scoring game.

[TrojanMan8]

I reviewed my record... number has been off and I lost .1U somewhere in my unit count.

Last few plays should be:
31. San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 at Real Salt Lake +103 (5D)
32. Over 2.5 Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union +105 (BM)
33. DC United ML vs. Columbus Crew +169 (5D)
34. Chicago Fire +0.5 at Sporting KC +137 (5D)
35. Chicago Fire ML vs. Real Salt Lake +115 (5D)
36. DC United ML vs. Orlando City +118 (5D)

Record: 14.5-21-0.5 (-6.54u)

[TrojanMan8]

37. FC Dallas ML vs. New York Red Bulls +145 (5D)
38. Over 2.5 FC Dallas vs. New York Red Bulls -104 (5D)

New York is playing on a short week after getting the first win against their NY rivals on Sunday. They have not been in good form before that derby. FC Dallas has turned it around (3W, 1D) since that 4-0 shellacking versus then-winless Colorado. I view these teams as evenly matched, but Dallas has several advantages. They have home field, they've played a few Friday night games already so they know how to prepare, and the game will end around 11pm NY time. Both teams can score 2 or 3 on their own so I think getting the Over and near even money is value. I see a 2-1 or 3-1 game for Dallas.

Other leans: NYCFC ML, NYC/CHI Under 2.5

[TrojanMan8]

39. Vancouver Whitecaps ML vs. Seattle Sounders +131 (5D)
Martins is out for Seattle. Vancouver has 4 wins and 1 draw in last 5 against Seattle.

[TrojanMan8]

40. San Jose Earthquakes ML vs. Columbus Crew +194 (5D)
People are sleeping on San Jose and this is a great price for at home. Columbus looks to have one of the better offenses in MLS with 15 goals in 9 games, but they have scored 13 in 5 home games and only twice in 4 away games. The Quakes have scored 6 in 3 home games this year. With Wondo in the lineup, I think SJ gets the win here.

[TrojanMan8]

41. Draw Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy +237 (5D)
Orlando has one of the worst home records in the league. LA has one of the worst road records in the league. Orlando missing central defender Collin. LA struggling to score without Keane. I think this is an ugly game that ends in a draw.

42. DC United ML at Philadelphia Union +202 (5D)
DC will be missing Espindola, but they have proven that they can get results on the road including a win over Vancouver. Philly has yet to win at home this season. DC should be able to win this more than once in three tries.

[TrojanMan8]

37. FC Dallas ML vs. New York Red Bulls +145 (5D)
38. Over 2.5 FC Dallas vs. New York Red Bulls -104 (5D)
39. Vancouver Whitecaps ML vs. Seattle Sounders +131 (5D)
40. San Jose Earthquakes ML vs. Columbus Crew +194 (5D)
41. Draw Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy +237 (5D)
42. DC United ML at Philadelphia Union +202 (5D)

Record: 15.5-25-0.5 (-9.64u)

I'm providing good fade material here. I'll stop posting if I lose 15+ units.

[TrojanMan8]

43. DC United +0.5 at New England Revolution +108 (5D)
DC is a solid team that can get results on the road even thought they lost at Philadelphia to a late goal. New England played a high octane game at Sporting KC midweek and I would expect this game to test their depth.

44. FC Dallas ML at Montreal Impact +233 (BM)
Dallas has the best record in the West and is unbeaten in their last 5 (3 wins, 2 draws). Montreal has a poor record because they've been playing the in the CONCACAF Champions League and the Canadian Championships so they've played 4 games in the past two weeks. While they were impressive last week with a win vs. RSL, I don't think that continues this week.

[TrojanMan8]

45. Vancouver Whitecaps PK at Colorado Rapids +139 (5D)
Vancouver lost last week to Seattle, but they need a result here. Colorado has been playing better to start the season, but they are a draw machine. Vancouver can pull this out, but we'll get a refund with a draw.

46. Over 2.5 Sporting KC at Seattle +115 (BM)
Martins is out for Seattle, but Chad Barrett scored two goals in his place last week. Both teams can score and both can score multiple goals. I like the over here for plus money.

[smithah2]

i was thinking the same thing for play 46. The only thing im worried about is seattle at home conceding. wish it was seattle at kc. either way probably going for it as well with plus money.

[Apache888]

Dontstop posting!!!