Smith Picks v2.0

[smithah2]

Hey guys,

2015 and a new year. i'm going to try and start posting again. Won't be posting daily necessarily like before and definitely not as many plays a day but will try my best to consistently post.

Hope you don't mind new year, new thread I'm just going to start over record and units wise.

[smithah2]

13/01/15

Oman v Australia Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (2u)

Bastia v Stade Rennes Over 2 @ 1.83 (2u)

West Ham Utd (ML) v Everton @ 2.20 (1u)

St Etienne v Paris St Germain Over 2.5 @ 2.45 (2u)

AC Milan v Sassuolo Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (2u)

0-0-0 (+0.00)

(by the way I am a west ham fan so the west ham pick and any in the future are not advisable!)

[chuda]

some price in PSG game might give a go myself... or over 2.0 @ 1.80 for sure

[PhilHughes]

Damn can't believe how well Aus is playing

[smithah2]

some price in PSG game might give a go myself... or over 2.0 @ 1.80 for sure

Yeah great price there, and head to head show some highs coring matches. Also st etienne should be able to score so that helps.

[afgballer56]

Smith ur playing 5 dollars a unit
nd putting alotnof effort in capping
it doesnt make sense
wats ur goal

[smithah2]

13/01/15

Oman v Australia Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (2u) WIN

Bastia v Stade Rennes Over 2 @ 1.83 (2u) WIN

West Ham Utd (ML) v Everton @ 2.20 (1u) LOSS

St Etienne v Paris St Germain Over 2.5 @ 2.45 (2u) LOSS

AC Milan v Sassuolo Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (2u) WIN

3-2-0 (+1.98 Units)

I was thinking about posting a starting and current bankroll along with the record and units but have decided against it. Will do just what I did last time with a win/loss/push record and a +/- unit record.

Lost my West Ham play but who cares, SEX DRUGS AND CARLTON COLE!!!! Just happy we advanced and never thought Carlton would have pulled through so big for us. Also loved that Adrian had the winner.

[chuda]

was great cup game went up to GK vs GK..
i was minute too late inplay to trigger westham to qualify @ 7 in 109`th minute...
tough game against bristol city now, but they should passed it...

[smithah2]

15/01/15

Platanias v Atromitos Over 2 @ 1.95 (2u)

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 @ 1.71 (2u)

Juventus v Hellas Verona Over 2.5 @ 1.56 (2u)

Elche v Barcelona Over 3.5 @ 2.20 (2u)


3-2-0 (+1.98 Units)

[smithah2]

I know I'm gonna regret that heavilllllly juiced Juve over.

[CDub03]

Just wondering your thoughts on that game in Greece.... I have it going 1-0 either way maybe 2 goals tops so I was wondering if you could share why you think it will go over the 2???? Thanks

[smithah2]

Its actually I play I took from someone I follow. They are killing it with something like 40-26 in their plays, he has o2.5 and i felt like o2 is safer but still I trust this guy. Not saying it will hit, but sure worth a shot.

[smithah2]

15/01/15

Platanias v Atromitos Over 2 @ 1.95 (2u) LOSS

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 @ 1.71 (2u) WIN

Juventus v Hellas Verona Over 2.5 @ 1.56 (2u) WIN

Elche v Barcelona Over 3.5 @ 2.20 (2u) WIN


Today:
3-1-0 (+2.94 units)

Overall:
6-3-0 (+4.92 Units)

[smithah2]

15/01/15

Australia v South Korea Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (1u)

Australia v South Korea BTTS@ 2.00 (1u)

Rotherham United v AFC Bournemouth Over 2.5 @ 1.77 (2u)

QPR v Manchester United Over 2.5 @ 1.71 (2u)

Burnley v Crystal Palace Over 2.5 @ 2.25 (1u)

RC Lens v Lyon (ML) @ 1.83 (1u)

Palermo v Roma (ML) @ 2.05 (2u)

Palermo v Roma Over 2.5 @ 1.87 (2u)

Overall:
6-3-0 (+4.92 Units)

[smithah2]

Big card for me tomorrow. This is specifically what I am trying to stay away from and limit to smaller 3-5 play cards. Hard for me to do tomorrow as a lot stood out to me. Weighted the bets according with my confidence in each, which could be good or kill me tomorrow, but at least it means im only putting out 11 units instead of 16.

[smithah2]

ugh, I don't even want to update.

[smithah2]

18/01/15

Man City v Arsenal Over 3 @ 1.83 (2u)

Stade Rennes v St Etienne Over 2 @ 1.95 (2u)

Lazio v Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (2u)

Levadiakos v Astera Tripolis Over 2 @ 1.67 (2u)

Udinese V Cagliari Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (2u)

Juventus v Verona Over 3 @ 1.77 (2u)


will update record after tomorrow's picks. sorry no time.

[smithah2]

15/01/15

Australia v South Korea Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (1u) LOSS

Australia v South Korea BTTS@ 2.00 (1u) LOSS

Rotherham United v AFC Bournemouth Over 2.5 @ 1.77 (2u) LOSS

QPR v Manchester United Over 2.5 @ 1.71 (2u) LOSS

Burnley v Crystal Palace Over 2.5 @ 2.25 (1u) WIN

RC Lens v Lyon (ML) @ 1.83 (1u) WIN

Palermo v Roma (ML) @ 2.05 (2u) LOSS

Palermo v Roma Over 2.5 @ 1.87 (2u) LOSS

Overall:
5-12-0 (-3.00 Units)

[smithah2]

18/01/15

Man City v Arsenal Over 3 @ 1.83 (2u) LOSS

Stade Rennes v St Etienne Over 2 @ 1.95 (2u) LOSS

Lazio v Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (2u) LOSS

Levadiakos v Astera Tripolis Over 2 @ 1.67 (2u) WIN

Udinese V Cagliari Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (2u) WIN

Juventus v Verona Over 3 @ 1.77 (2u) WIN


Overall:
8-15-0 (-4.12) Units)

[smithah2]

19/01/15

Qatar v Bahrain Over 1 (1H) @ 2.35 (1u)

Qatar v Bahrain Over 2 @ 1.80 (1u)

Iran (ML) v UAE @ 1.91 (2u)

Iran v UAE Over 2 @ 1.80 (1u)


Overall:
8-15-0 (-4.12) Units)

[smithah2]

19/01/15

Qatar v Bahrain Over 1 (1H) @ 2.35 (1u) PUSH

Qatar v Bahrain Over 2 @ 1.80 (1u) WIN

Iran (ML) v UAE @ 1.91 (2u) WIN

Iran v UAE Over 2 @ 1.80 (1u) LOSS


Today:
2-1-1 (+1.62)

Overall:
10-16-1 (-2.5) Units)

[smithah2]

20/01/15

Iraq v Palestine Over 2.5 @ 1.53 (2u)

Panionionos v Veria Over 2.5 @ 2.15 (2u)

Leeds Utd v AFC Bournemouth Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (2u)

Liverpool v Chelsea Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (2u)

Liverpool v Chelsea (ML) @ 2.10 (2u)



Overall:
10-16-1 (-2.5) Units)

[smithah2]

20/01/15

Iraq v Palestine Over 2.5 @ 1.53 (2u) LOSS

Panionionos v Veria Over 2.5 @ 2.15 (2u) WIN

Leeds Utd v AFC Bournemouth Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (2u) LOSS

Liverpool v Chelsea Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (2u) LOSS

Liverpool v Chelsea (ML) @ 2.10 (2u) LOSS



Overall:
11-20-1 (-8.2) Units)

[smithah2]

21/01/15

Skoda Xanthi v Panathinaikos Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (2u)

Tottenham v Sheffield United Over 2.5 @ 1.67 (2u)

St Mirren v Dundee United Over 2.5 @ 1.74 (2u)

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 @ 1.74 (2u)

Palestino v Antofagasta Over 2.5 @ 1.74 (2u)

Gent v Lokeren Over 2.5 @ 1.91 (2u)

Universidad de Concepcion v Union Espanola Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (2u)

PSG v Bordeaux Over 2.5 @ 1.91 (2u)

Hamburger SV v Manchester City Over 2.5 @ 1.50 (2u)

Overall:
11-20-1 (-8.2) Units)

[smithah2]

I wish I could figure out how to narrow down my cards to only a few picks. When I go through the day's fixtures I write down everything I like then relook it over and take ones out I don't like in the end, but still I end up with always 5+ plays. It's hard for me to pick which few I like the best out of all my plays. I try and use a gut feeling, but in the end I always like all my plays somewhat equally. Then look at stats, and more often than not, the stats back up the plays I have picked, so I don't know how to pick 8 and then go through them and say no these are the 3 I REALLY like and just play those. any suggestions? what do you all do?

[Aleeki]

I know this feeling really well. I'm a shocker for liking like 10 games etc, and then which ever way I look at it, I feel that none are worth not playing. Most often than not though, the ones I feel strongest about lose and the ones I was doubtful on win haha.

Keen to see what the feedback is from others.

[willydk]

I dunno... Limited to 2-6 picks a day? Make yourself give ratings from 1-10 on each pick? And only play ratings 7 or higher? If there are too many they play 8 or higher.
too many bets a day will hurt you ....

[CDub03]

I have had/have the same issue with having a bunch of bets... especially with Soccer and NCAAFB.... Like Aleeki stated it seems when I like a bunch and pull out the best play I would lose the ones I loved and win a bunch of the rest... There were times I would like 10 or so bets and play the best 3 then go like 7-3 and you know which ones I lost, lol... My solution to this is either to break 10 games up into say 5 two team parlays which the risk is just a bit more, however I can make better money if they both win or the other solution I came up with was to take my unit bet and cut it in half on the days I have a bunch of plays so I dont have to think which ones I like better but also I dont have so much at risk when I play a bunch...

Today I have 11 plays I like so I played 6 on the ML and then played a 2 and 3 team parlay with the ones that worked well together.....

The way my betting system works I cant for the life of me take less games because I dont weigh my picks on a rating scale rather I go thru them and come up with play or no play...

[Rudeboy]

maybe because you only play $5 per game?

no offence or anything its up to you but if you play loads of games and end up losing thousands you will start discipline

its amazing what losing money can do to ones selection quantity!

[smithah2]

27/1/15

Mersin v Bursaspor Over 2.5 @ 1.91 (2u)

Chelsea v Liverpool Over 2.5 @ 1.77 (2u)

Millwall v Reading Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (2u)

AC Milan v Lazio Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (2u)

Team to Qualify Lazio @ 2.05 (2u)

[cogiditopapa]

My friend just something that works for me.
Pick the teams you like from the leagues you follow, check the trends of you teams if they are hot bet them if the are cold stay away or check if the other team is hot enough so you can bet against your team.
Sometimes you may think you like a game so much that you should bet it, don't fall in love with the stats, info is key. If you do not have info about the teams to back up your bet, just don't bet it. There is always another game. Just because you like a game it doesn't mean it should hit, and don't think that because you didn't chose the other ones and those hit you should be betting everything you like in your card from now on.

Is is key to set an objective for your bankroll. Example:
if you have $200 and you divide this in 40 units ($5), try to set a reachable goal, like : I want to increase my bankroll by 25% in the next 5 days. If you stick to this you be thinking more about which games have the potential to deliver your goal and not so much on winning lots of games. In other words pick your spots, bet a little harder when you have good info on the games.
No need to bet on 5+ games every day, betting to reach an objective is different than betting because you need action.

If you are good at the premier and la Liga stick to those only (just an example, not saying you are only good at those). If you try to analyze to much you will always end up with lots of games you may like, remember your brain is design to solve questions therefore your brain will always find a lean, create a elimination process to pick your top plays.

Hope pe it helps, good luck!

[smithah2]

Thanks a lot papa means a lot. I have trouble with the elimination process. What do you mean by info compared to stats? Do you mean for example let's say Chelsea vs Liverpool the stats lean over lets say but knowing mourning and the teams current state that they would be going in more defensive minded so the stats don't matter? But yeah really just clarify if you can what you mean by info compared to stats. And yes I need to create a better elimination process to narrow down 6-8 picks down to 3-4. Thanks papa

[smithah2]

06/02/15

Trapani v Carpi Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (1u)

Schalke (Pick) v Gladbach @ 2.05 (1u)

[smithah2]

08/02/15

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix (Pick) @ 2.00 (1u)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (1u)

Cagliari v Roma Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (1u)

Sampdoria v Sassuolo Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (1u)

Napoli v Udinese Over 2.5 @ 1.71 (1u)