SUN NOV 30th Pick

[DiamondJack]

The bad luck continued Saturday as my internet went down AGAIN...Only one play left today;

1. Santos UNDER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (BRA) 5 Units

The past 4 games for both sides ALL have gone Under 2.5. The past 4 games Botafogo scores ZERO goals and allows 6. The past 4 games for Santos scores 1 goal & allows 4. The game really means nothing for either team. Santos averaged 2.06 gpg & Botafogo 2.14. Brazil is typically a low scoring league. The only thing that my number point to are 1-0 or 2-0 result for Santos.


BOL

Posted Record

17-17 -3.61 Units

[DiamondJack]

"BIG STACKS PICKS"

for Sunday November 30th

1. SMU -14.5 (3U)

Posted Record;

22-16 +7.90

[CoFred]

Guess who's threads were moved to the box across the street...

[DiamondJack]

Guess who's threads were moved to the box across the street...

He'll just come back under another name..., until Sarah & SamJack & a few other losers are around I will stay here

[DiamondJack]

Allright let's blow the whistle in Brazil & give me my 5 Units

[franz555]

He'll just come back under another name..., until Sarah & SamJack & a few other losers are around I will stay here

[CoFred]

Allright let's blow the whistle in Brazil & give me my 5 Units

Saw the 1-0 in the 81' and was pretty comfortable. Once I saw 2-0 I put on the game and it was back and forth. A little bit of a nail biter but awesome way to hit 5 units DJ

[DiamondJack]

CoFred---
Franz---

[franz555]

Nice hit buddy.......I have to admit, I was shocked when I saw you hit an under so hard. Ballsy, but well done.

........Love this guy

[DiamondJack]

Franz i TRY to be disciplined but when I feel like dropping a grand on Luton and hold back...well it just pisses me off when it hits

That Brazil play I thought would lose for sure...

Trust the stats not your emotions

[franz555]

Franz i TRY to be disciplined but when I feel like dropping a grand on Luton and hold back...well it just pisses me off when it hits

That Brazil play I thought would lose for sure...

Trust the stats not your emotions

I know, I know.......but it ain't easy. Lol.

Cheers buddy

[DiamondJack]

FRANZ---here is what I think about MATH ...LOL

[Rudeboy]

Nice win DJ

But I would never encourage laying that much...having said that you clearly know what your doing,

I went against all "Money Management" rules today and started chasing, from only losing 1 unit it become over 4, this
is what happens without protecting yourself by having the numbers in your favour its mathematics law

[DiamondJack]

You are right Rudeboy.... I go by Fib numbers 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21
Emotions cost people money...that is why they invented IN-PLAY...to get the people to bet with emotion not Math

[franz555]

You are right Rudeboy.... I go by Fib numbers 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21
Emotions cost people money...that is why they invented IN-PLAY...to get the people to bet with emotion not Math

As a man who loves the analytical side of wagering, like yourself( stats, trends etc ), I have to totally disagree. " Live " in game wagering is based exactly on the same premiss as capping a game 24 hrs in advance. You look for trends like home record, possession, goals for/ against etc, the same principles apply in live wagering. That huge favorite has now gained value based on the " time value " that has diminished in the game. As per your original assessment, the heavy favorite is doing exactly as you anticipated ( possession 75%.....shots on goal 21 -5 etc....), but now, due to the 25 minutes that have elapsed, they are a " value " play. To me, I see ZERO emotion to the wager.

[Yazworm91]

Good hit DJ!! I missed this play glad to see you hit though.

[Yazworm91]

As a man who loves the analytical side of wagering, like yourself( stats, trends etc ), I have to totally disagree. " Live " in game wagering is based exactly on the same premiss as capping a game 24 hrs in advance. You look for trends like home record, possession, goals for/ against etc, the same principles apply in live wagering. That huge favorite has now gained value based on the " time value " that has diminished in the game. As per your original assessment, the heavy favorite is doing exactly as you anticipated ( possession 75%.....shots on goal 21 -5 etc....), but now, due to the 25 minutes that have elapsed, they are a " value " play. To me, I see ZERO emotion to the wager.

Franz I'm with you on that. I've done well live betting soccer. I don't get to do it a lot because most of the games during the week I'm unavailable for because I'm at work. Along with I'm still trying to time plays if I'm able to get on a live bet I generally like to catch it at +ev. The other issue I have is for example I had Juventus today -1.5 they were tied in the 85th min and Juventus was +330 to win the rest of the match I shied away from taking them because I was now investing 1.5-2 units into the play if I lose. Now when I can if I don't originally take a team I passed on I may jump on them live. One thing I like about BetDsi they have a lot of live betting for soccer games.