Half a dozen on tap for Saturday.... looking to end a string of crappy plays this week;
1. Luton ML @ 2.00/+100 (ENG L2) 3 Units
Luton have been my pick for promotion since the beginning of the season, they sit 1 point out of first place and host 17th spot Mansfield. Mansfield had an FA cup replay game midweek and look tired and lack direction since former boss Paul Cox left last week. The last 5 games for Luton at home all wins, Mansfield only managed 1 win in the past 5 and that was to non league Concord. Luton have the leagues second best defense with only 12 goals allowed. The visitors have the leagues 2nd worst offense with only 15 goals scored. My POD after looking at all the angles.
2. Lazio ML @ 2.15/+115 (ITA) 3 Units
Chievo have only 1 win at home this season and have 1W 2D 2L in the past 5 at home. The visitors Lazio have 2W 2D 1L away from home in their past five. Last season both fixtures went Lazio's way 3-0 & 2-0. Over the years Lazio has owned Chievo in Verona the last 7 meetings Lazio wins all of them with a 14GF vs 3 allowed ratio. Chievo find themselves once again fighting relegation sitting in 18th spot hosting Lazio who are in 6th. I had the match pegged at even money.
3. Livorno ML @ 2.30/+130 (ITA b) 2 Units
Livorno host promoted side Perugia who have been decent this season but not away from home where they have only won once. Past 5 away Perugia 3D 2L, the past 5 at home Livorno 4W 1L, Livorno only losing once at home this year. The last meeting between the sides was a cup tie where Livorno won 4-1 at home. Perugia struggle to score away only managing 5GF in all their away games this season compared to Livorno who have 18 GF at home.
4. Podbeskidzie OVER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (POL) 2 Units
I'm still sticking to my Polish overs even though I lost my last 2. This season I have 13W and 8L at an average odds of 1.99/-101. Podbeskidzie's games average a league 2nd high 3.38 gpg, where as Lechia averages 2.81 for a combined 3.09 gpg. The past 5 a for Lechia 7GA 5 GF, the past 5 for the home side 7GS 10GA to average 2.90. My numbers had the odds here at 1.80/-125
5. Swansea OVER 2.5 @ 2.05/+105 (ENG) 2 Units
Once again another numbers play compared to odds being offered. Palace averages 3.17 goals per game, Swansea's matches average 2.42 for a combined 2.79. Palace have the leagues 2nd worst GA & the leagues 8th best GF. The past 5 games for Palace 4 have gone over the past 5 for Swansea 3 go over 2.5. Crystal Palace away 8GF 10GA, Swansea at home 9GF 4GA to give me a 3.10 number.
6. Pribram to DRAW @ 3.30/+230 (CZR) 1 Unit
The past 5 for Liberec 2D the past 5 for Pribram 3D. Both sides are seperated by a single point in the table and a battle between 15th & 13th spot relegation match will be one that both side will not want to lose first rather than going all out for the win. The last meeting was a draw 0-0 I expect the same today. Liberec have a league high 9 Draws in 15 games Pribram have drawn 4 to give me a 43.3% and 50% probability that should have +175 across the board for the 1X2.
BOL
Posted Record
16-12 +3.39 Units
1. Luton ML @ 2.00/+100 (ENG L2) 3 Units
Luton have been my pick for promotion since the beginning of the season, they sit 1 point out of first place and host 17th spot Mansfield. Mansfield had an FA cup replay game midweek and look tired and lack direction since former boss Paul Cox left last week. The last 5 games for Luton at home all wins, Mansfield only managed 1 win in the past 5 and that was to non league Concord. Luton have the leagues second best defense with only 12 goals allowed. The visitors have the leagues 2nd worst offense with only 15 goals scored. My POD after looking at all the angles.
2. Lazio ML @ 2.15/+115 (ITA) 3 Units
Chievo have only 1 win at home this season and have 1W 2D 2L in the past 5 at home. The visitors Lazio have 2W 2D 1L away from home in their past five. Last season both fixtures went Lazio's way 3-0 & 2-0. Over the years Lazio has owned Chievo in Verona the last 7 meetings Lazio wins all of them with a 14GF vs 3 allowed ratio. Chievo find themselves once again fighting relegation sitting in 18th spot hosting Lazio who are in 6th. I had the match pegged at even money.
3. Livorno ML @ 2.30/+130 (ITA b) 2 Units
Livorno host promoted side Perugia who have been decent this season but not away from home where they have only won once. Past 5 away Perugia 3D 2L, the past 5 at home Livorno 4W 1L, Livorno only losing once at home this year. The last meeting between the sides was a cup tie where Livorno won 4-1 at home. Perugia struggle to score away only managing 5GF in all their away games this season compared to Livorno who have 18 GF at home.
4. Podbeskidzie OVER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (POL) 2 Units
I'm still sticking to my Polish overs even though I lost my last 2. This season I have 13W and 8L at an average odds of 1.99/-101. Podbeskidzie's games average a league 2nd high 3.38 gpg, where as Lechia averages 2.81 for a combined 3.09 gpg. The past 5 a for Lechia 7GA 5 GF, the past 5 for the home side 7GS 10GA to average 2.90. My numbers had the odds here at 1.80/-125
5. Swansea OVER 2.5 @ 2.05/+105 (ENG) 2 Units
Once again another numbers play compared to odds being offered. Palace averages 3.17 goals per game, Swansea's matches average 2.42 for a combined 2.79. Palace have the leagues 2nd worst GA & the leagues 8th best GF. The past 5 games for Palace 4 have gone over the past 5 for Swansea 3 go over 2.5. Crystal Palace away 8GF 10GA, Swansea at home 9GF 4GA to give me a 3.10 number.
6. Pribram to DRAW @ 3.30/+230 (CZR) 1 Unit
The past 5 for Liberec 2D the past 5 for Pribram 3D. Both sides are seperated by a single point in the table and a battle between 15th & 13th spot relegation match will be one that both side will not want to lose first rather than going all out for the win. The last meeting was a draw 0-0 I expect the same today. Liberec have a league high 9 Draws in 15 games Pribram have drawn 4 to give me a 43.3% and 50% probability that should have +175 across the board for the 1X2.
BOL
Posted Record
16-12 +3.39 Units
loving the plays BOL.
