Not Another EPL 2014/15 Thread!

[Kurasik89]

Crystal Palace game today but no time for a write-up. I'll just briefly say that Palace did well against West Brom last week and were unlucky to not get all 3 points. While on the other hand, Sunderland looked like an amateur team home to Arsenal, with just madness from Wes Brown and the GK to gift Sanchez both goals. After that 8-0 loss to Southampton, they look completely lost and I think will just simply lose again today.

#6) Nov 3 - Crystal Palace vs Sunderland:

Crystal Palace ML @ 2.10 - 1u --- LOSS

Palace had it at one point but just could not keep it together..

2 WIN - 4 LOSS - 0 PUSH

TOTAL : -1.15u

[Kurasik89]

Of all the EPL games this weekend, I picked the three I have most insight on. I will make final picks tomorrow and might add a few as the games progress. But for now, these are my only leans:

Nov 8 – Burnley vs Hull:

Odds: H 2.50 / X 3.30 / A 2.75

On paper, the weakest game of the lot, but should still be fun to watch.

Form:

Burnley are playing poor football, as one could expect from their weak squad. If they keep this up, relegation might come sooner than they think.

Hull disappointed me last weekend. After two consecutive away draws against top opponents in Arsenal and Liverpool, they were looking like a decent team capable of a decent finish in the league. However, they opened the game against Southampton with some horrible decision-making to give Wanyama an open-net goal, and it stayed 0-1 from there until full-time. Southampton are a superb defensive team this year but I expected Hull to create more chances than the mere one shot on goal they could muster.

Desperation:
In terms of desperation, Burnley win in every regard (LOL?). At 4 points, they are a comfortable last place and their survival hopes look grim. Hull won’t be too disappointed with their current standing.

Key Players:

Burnley’s best players this season have been some of their defenders, despite the goals they keep conceding. One key for me is Trippier. He has been making some good runs down the left flank but has almost nobody to connect with on crosses. I’m not exactly sure what the plan is now but Trippier should be a huge part of it.

I have said it before but I might repeat myself a few more times this year – Abel Hernandez is one of the best signings for a bottom club I have seen in a while. His game is almost that of Suarez’s, just relentless energy and smart positioning. If the likes of Ben Arfa and Diame can improve on their supply to this man, Hull could soon be a dangerous team in attack.

Verdict:
This game is obviously tough to call, hence the close odds given, but there is a huge factor to be considered here. Despite Burnley’s poor form and limited attacking options, their only hope of EPL survival is to win these games. Simply put, if they fail here, you can assume it’s already over by November. If Burnley had maybe 3-4 more points than they currently do, I would be all over Hull. But I envision Burnley chasing every ball like it’s their last and so my pick here is based on that. If Burnley can connect on one good cross early on and manage to get a goal, they will hold onto that with dear life. Tail with caution! FT 1-0


Nov 8 – Southampton vs Leicester:

Odds: H 1.45 / X 4.3 / A 7.0

In what would be an average game if we were to rewind a year, this one could be fantastic.

Form:

Southampton’s form is impeccable to say the least. I thought they would finally slow down at Hull, but that one goal was enough for a win. I don’t know what can bring this team down at the moment, they look unstoppable. And when you thought their defense couldn’t get any better, new signing Alderweireld starts putting in man-of-the-match performances!

Leicester have been terrible. They could not score a single goal past an average West Brom side, at home! We all know now that the 5-3 win over United was just an anomaly, but this is definitely disappointing. I expected them to become an exciting attacking team but they have been lacklustre, making bad decisions in the final third.

Desperation:

After a poor run of games, Leicester find themselves sitting in the relegation zone just above QPR, so it’s safe to assume they are looking for nothing but 3 points here. Southampton on the other hand are playing out of their minds and will look to get another solid win at home, but there is no additional motivation here.

Key Players:

Southampton have shown how capable they are in finding talent. They let go of several key players and somehow find even better ones. For the last few weeks, Tadic and Pelle have been the prime examples but as of last week’s game against Hull, we now know Alderweireld is another major addition to this fantastic team. He was simply magnificent, making Southampton now seem as powerful defensively as his previous team, Atletico, was last season.

For Leicester, goals have not been easy to come by. At one point, we all thought Ulloa was the answer, but he seems to have faded away after his marvelous start to the season. For me, the key on Saturday will be Vardy. After his brilliant game against United, he has done nothing special, but it is important to note he’s been getting great chances to score. If he can convert on some of these, in addition to his occasional brilliant runs, Leicester might start climbing the table again.

Verdict:

It’s really hard not to like Southampton here, not only because of their form, but that Leicester have been dreadful. However, I really dislike these ‘easy’ games. When it feels too easy, it’s usually a problem. I can see Leicester finally finding a goal which may ruin Southampton’s chances to cover their -1.0 spread. In attempt to be creative, I will most likely take Southampton but the BTS (both to score) as well. This way, I’m looking to win both and break even if Southampton run riot. FT 2-1/3-1


Nov 8 – West Ham vs Aston Villa:

Odds: H 1.75 / X 3.6 / A 5.0

Later on, we find a surprisingly-strong West Ham side host a deceiving Aston Villa (reason given below).

Form:

West Ham have been the most surprising team for me this season, even more so than Southampton. They added nice pieces up front in Valencia and Zarate, but I felt they were going to be an average team. Well, as it stands, I’m horribly wrong. Registering fantastic home wins over Liverpool and especially Man City proves they are not an easy team to beat anymore.

I honestly believe Aston Villa deserved the 3 points EASILY last weekend. They were far better than Tottenham, but were defintely hurt by the poor finishing of their forwards at times. A moment of madness by Benteke was enough to kill their momentum and give Tottenham a fighting chance, which they of course capitalized on. Villa looked far better than their previous 5-6 games where they could not register a single goal.

Desperation:

I thought Villa were desperate to turn things around last week and they showed that in the first half of the game. But losing that game because of a silly moment will make them furious. On Saturday, I expect them to play without fear and attack until the very end of the game. Meanwhile, West Ham are sitting comfortably in 5^th place, which they will be happy about at this point in the season.

Key Players:

West Ham’s addition of Ener Valencia was a good one. The Ecuadorian striker proved in this summer’s World Cup that he is a consistent threat in attack. His strikers are powerful, his positioning is solid and best of all, he is a team player. West Ham need to continue building the team around this piece. I need to also mention Stewart Downing who has been tremendous this season. Last game, he was at his best and West Ham managed to scrape a solid point away to Stoke because of this.

Aston Villa seem a different team when Benteke plays well which is sad considering he won’t be available for them until early December. Thus, the key for me in this game is Weimann, the scorer of their only goal in MANY games. He will need to pick up his game is Villa are to start winning again but did look good against Tottenham.

Verdict:

Villa played very well at home to Spurs last Sunday, finally scoring a goal and constantly being a threat for their opponent’s defenders. If not for that shameful red that Benteke foolishly acquired, Villa had that game. I believe despite West Ham’s efforts to continue their strong run, Villa will prove to be a fierce and frankly angry side to contend with. They might even win this one to be honest. FT 1-1/1-2

[therealdealau]

I think you are underrating West Ham here, Sakho is back and they are playing some great football. Aston Villa will have a tough time finding the back of the net in my opinion but good luck!

[Kurasik89]

Final Picks for GW 11:


#1) Nov 08 - Burnley vs Hull:

Burnley DNB @ 1.75 - 1u


#2) Nov 08 - Southampton vs Leicester:

Southampton -1.0 @ 1.65 - 1u
& BTS (both to score) @ 1.83 - 0.5u


#3) Nov 08 - West Ham vs Aston Villa:

Aston Villa +0.5 @ 2.20 - 1u

[newjack]

Uhm i'd lean towards hull city rather than burnley. It's true that they have sort of a cold/hot periods and i think they might be able to at least draw against burnley. Quick look at the stats and both teams seem to be open defensively, 5/10 hull games went over 2.5, 6/10 burnley games went over (not that burnley scored much) but i can easily see 3 goals in this match. (my opinion)

Also what's up with the odds rising on Chelsea?

[Kurasik89]

Uhm i'd lean towards hull city rather than burnley. It's true that they have sort of a cold/hot periods and i think they might be able to at least draw against burnley. Quick look at the stats and both teams seem to be open defensively, 5/10 hull games went over 2.5, 6/10 burnley games went over (not that burnley scored much) but i can easily see 3 goals in this match. (my opinion)

Also what's up with the odds rising on Chelsea?

Well, there's the usual blind Liverpool love. Also, Liverpool are rarely such dogs at home so their price is attractive.

[krigaren]

Well, there's the usual blind Liverpool love. Also, Liverpool are rarely such dogs at home so their price is attractive.

Am all over 2.2 chelsea tomorow. I do not get that line one bit! Even if it doesnt hit tomorow is anyone gonna tell me that Chelsea with Costa in will not win against liverpool 2.2 times off the times? Especially the way liverpool have played without suarez and sturridge.
2.2 is a gift, my biggest bet off the season so far and im so happy with it i dont even care if it hits or not.

[newjack]

chelsea was a winner !

[Kurasik89]

Final Picks for GW 11:


#1) Nov 08 - Burnley vs Hull:

Burnley DNB @ 1.75 - 1u --- WIN


#2) Nov 08 - Southampton vs Leicester:

Southampton -1.0 @ 1.65 - 1u --- WIN
& BTS (both to score) @ 1.83 - 0.5u --- LOSS


#3) Nov 08 - West Ham vs Aston Villa:

Aston Villa +0.5 @ 2.20 - 1u --- WIN

5 WIN - 5 LOSS - 0 PUSH

TOTAL : +0.95u


Now that's better! Southampton keep the bullet train going...

[Kurasik89]

Too tired to write a full preview but will say briefly..


Swansea vs Arsenal:

With Bony and Sigurdsson linking up well and Swansea's defense in top shape, I don't see them simply rolling over to Arsenal. Arsenal played well in their last league game at home to Burnley but I think that mid-week 3-3 in the CL will rattle them a bit. With this in mind, I can easily see Arsenal stumbling tomorrow. FT 2-1/1-1


#4) Nov 09 - Swansea vs Arsenal:

Swansea +0.5 @ 1.80 - 1u

[krigaren]

Too tired to write a full preview but will say briefly..


Swansea vs Arsenal:

With Bony and Sigurdsson linking up well and Swansea's defense in top shape, I don't see them simply rolling over to Arsenal. Arsenal played well in their last league game at home to Burnley but I think that mid-week 3-3 in the CL will rattle them a bit. With this in mind, I can easily see Arsenal stumbling tomorrow. FT 2-1/1-1


#4) Nov 09 - Swansea vs Arsenal:

Swansea +0.5 @ 1.80 - 1u

I think its a solid bet. Arsenal have not been coming up to standards this season at all. Especially if Flamini is playing, Arteta is out.

But if Wenger decides to play Wilshire and Ramsey and gives the midget Carzola (who have not been able to hit the ball this season at all) the bench i think Arsenal will come out on top. Arsenal is also a difrent beast with Walcot on the team, he just opens up so many lanes that helps players like Ramsey, Oxlade and Sanchez. I suspect Walcot will get a good 30-45 minutes.
If flamini plays he alone will create 4-5 chances for Swansea and all hope is lost and your bet is 100% a winner

[krigaren]

Its official that Flamini and the midget Carzola is in. Am adding Carzola to miss the ball on an attempt + 101
Flamini to assist Swansea + 105
Your bet is an autowin.. Nice job!!!

[Kurasik89]

Lmfao

[Kurasik89]

Brilliant comeback!

[krigaren]

Brilliant comeback!

Yea what a freekick that was!
Both my bet hits to, Carzola has done absolutly nothing now for 6 games in a row. Playing flamini is like playing a plastic cone, except that this cone is retarded.

[Kurasik89]

Too tired to write a full preview but will say briefly..


Swansea vs Arsenal:

With Bony and Sigurdsson linking up well and Swansea's defense in top shape, I don't see them simply rolling over to Arsenal. Arsenal played well in their last league game at home to Burnley but I think that mid-week 3-3 in the CL will rattle them a bit. With this in mind, I can easily see Arsenal stumbling tomorrow. FT 2-1/1-1


#4) Nov 09 - Swansea vs Arsenal:

Swansea +0.5 @ 1.80 - 1u --- WIN

Excellent comeback with a beautiful free kick by Sigurdsson. He is their savior!

6 WIN - 5 LOSS - 0 PUSH

TOTAL : +1.75u