Saturday, 8/2 (Brasil Serie A)

[HuskerExpat]

Criciuma, +940 vs. Sao Paulo
Draw, +368 Sao Paulo vs. Criciuma

Sao Paulo is really struggling right now. There is disunity in the team, and Luis Fabiona has been out with an injury. They could get it straightened out tomorrow, but 9.4 to 1 on Criciuma is too attractive not to take. And 3.6 to 1 for a draw is just a bonus.

[Killer2121]

They won their Cup game earlier during the week on the road and are still the better overall team. I'll take Sao Paulo

[HuskerExpat]

Based on your comment I don't think you watched that Copa do Brasil game or even read what happened. Sao Paulo played Bragantino, a Series B team. The final score was 2-1. The difference in the game was that Bragantino scored an own goal. But for that own goal it was a draw.

Do I think that Sao Paulo is overall the better team vs. Criciuma? Yes, I do. But Criciuma now at +1017 implies they have less than a 10% chance of winning the game. That's ridiculous. In Sao Paulo's last two Brasileirao games, the lost on the road to Goias and lost at home to Chapacoense.

[cala56]

Yes sao paulo is overrated, but criciuma is no the team to take right now.

[HuskerExpat]

No chance of Osvaldo, Luis Fabiano or Kaka playing today for Sao Paulo. Criciuma while not good, is substantially better than a 10 to 1 dog vs. the current iteration of Sao Paulo.

[cala56]

Next time the right pick is in the spread.

[HuskerExpat]

Next time the right pick is in the spread.

I don't think so. I was up +1.68 units with this combination of bets. Unfortunately for me the line moved in my favor after I made my bet on Friday and "Draw" went off at around +410 (which would have made me +2.1 in the combination of bets). The spread went off at Criciuma +1.5 -125. So I was much better off betting Criciuma +940 and Draw +368.

Clearly the right bet was draw +368 (up to +410). In any event, the right bet definitely wasn't Sao Paulo....