2014/2015 season

[Enjoi]

Great work Cogz. May I ask what your starting bankroll was?

Respect!

[cogiditopapa]

Glad we all hit some of those plays.

Originally my Bankroll was separated in 40 units ($2k divided in $50.00 units).
In October of last year I moved my unit size from $50 to $100.

[cogiditopapa]

3/11

Chelsea - PSG
BTTS at 1.90 (0.75 units)

BocaJuniors - Zamora
Over 2.5 at 1.66 (0.75 units)

Barcelona - AtleticoNacional
AtleticoNacional 0.0 at 1.975 (0.75 units)

SanJose - Tigres
SanJose over 1.5 at 2.37 (0.75 units)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

BayernMunich - Shaktar
BayernMunich Under 3.5 at 2.62 (0.75 units)

[cogiditopapa]

3/12

Zenit - Torino
Zenit over 1.5 at 1.80 (1 unit)

Everton - DinamoKiev
Everton over 1.5 at 2.37 (1 unit)

Villareal - Sevilla
BTTS at 1.72 (1 unit)

Olimpia - Estudiantes
BTTS at 2.10 (0.75 units)

JuanAurich - RiverPlate
RiverPlate over 1.5 at 2.0 (2.38 units)

[buengato]

Great work!
How do u calculate ROI? I'm asking just because I've seen different methods

[Enjoi]

So you initially started with 2k betting 50 per unit and have now increased your unit size to 100 since hitting 100 profit units? Is that a profit of over 5k you have made this year?

You seem to have a solid money management plan. Im trying to tighten up my money management strategy so any advice would help.

My current roll is 1.5k. How would you recommend I set up my staking units?

Lastly, do you have weekly, monthly profit goals?

Cheers in advance brother.

[cogiditopapa]

Enjoi, I converted my units from $50 to $100 back in 10/2014, the record and profits were converted too (check page #8 of my thread). The +118 units shown have a value of $100 each.

I had had to tighten up the money management part as I had lost a couple of large bets were The money management skill went Down the drain but over all I am betting now anywhere from 0.50 to 1 unit, very seldom now I bet over the one unit mark while in the 1st part of the season I used to make larger bets 2.5 units and so on. I am not saying that I will not make large bets, they may come, but I am just more careful as the bank roll increases.

I think the key is patience and knowing that there is always more games, don't fall in love with one game...that can destroy bankrolls quickly. Don't bet just to have action, this practice also destroy bankrolls quickly.

My objective is to gain 30 units per month.
My bankroll objective now is to hit +150 units after that I will target +200 units and so on until the end of the season.

Hope this helps.

[cogiditopapa]

In addition, based on your bankroll I would steak my picks as follow:

$10,$15,$20,$25 if you are going to try to hit a long shot bet, odds above 2.5 and larger.

$50 = unit, play a full unit when you select the top games you will bet on each day (these are your top selections)

$75 to $100 = you have key info that leads believe your winning probability is absolutely great (best players missing, teams are a machine to score and don't have much defense, etc.)

If you bet anything above this mark you need to acknowledge that your bankroll is at danger if you lose, you get on tilt and everything goes down the drain.

I am just telling you what worked for me when I had the $1.5k bankroll, not saying you or anyone else have to do the same.

Lastly set up a mark to increase your unit size, example when you hit $4k increase your unit size to $75.00, when you hit $6k increase it to $100.

Even though I have increase my bankroll to over +100 units, I feel comfortable with my conversion and I doubt that I will move it from where it is the rest of the year, also you will see that I keep doing a lot of 0.5 and 0.75 units bet on my top selections each day, why, because my goal is to make 1 unit a day and I normally betting 3 to 5 units per day, no more than 3% of my bankroll.

[XDK]

hi
Olimpia - Estudiantes
BTTS at 2.10 (0.75 units) league copa liber?

[cogiditopapa]

Correct XDK.

[Enjoi]

Thanks for the detailed answer cogs.

I think its not a bad idea to not risk more than 5% of ur bankroll a day. Saves u from going on tilt.

Ive been aggressive lately, flat betting 1unit as $100 and I know that won't be sustainable in the long run. Just have to be disciplined enough to reduce it by half. Its tough to do though if you are so used to winning a higher amount per bet.

[Enjoi]

That Juan Aurich goalkeeper just won't let up that 2nd goal. 9 saves!!

21 attempts 10 on target by River Plate

[Enjoi]

Nonetheless, great day Cogz

[cogiditopapa]

Painful game to watch, the synthetic pitch didn't help at all....

[cogiditopapa]

3/13

HoustonDynamo - OrlandoCity
HoustonDynamo ML at 2.10 (6.75 units)
HoustonDynamo -1 at 3.0 (4.68 units)

Dynamo a well-rounded team with a new coach Owen Coyle (former Burnley coach) started with a W against another well-rounded MLS team ColumbusCrew at home turf, it was a pretty tight game between this two teams. After watching the game looks like the Dynamo is starting to assimilate Coyle's playing style and moving away from a pretty bad end of the season last year.

On the other hand we have a new comer to the MLS, the OrlandoCity commanded by KAKA (this guy used to be awesome 10 years ago...we all know that... But now...we all know his story).
I watched the OrlandoCity - NYCity season opener and it was painful to watch till the end. No pressure, bad defending, tons of mistakes in midfield from both sides, the 1-1 was probably the most fair result as both teams have a lot of work to do before they can put up a good fight against MLS finest.

I think there is a quality gap between both teams, Dynamo has kept their core team structure while Orlando is the new kid on the block who has to learn a few lessons before something good happens.

[Betlitelli]

Kaka played in national team just six months ago and wants play again... on this level he should be a superstar thats way I played BTS @1.85, but looking how many units you put on Houston I probably play Houston too, they surely should score at least one.Best defender Orlando Collin is suspended they are in mess anyway and Houston trashed them 3:0 in preseason. GL

[cogiditopapa]

Kaka played in national team just six months ago and wants play again... on this level he should be a superstar thats way I played BTS @1.85, but looking how many units you put on Houston I probably play Houston too, they surely should score at least one.Best defender Orlando Collin is suspended they are in mess anyway and Houston trashed them 3:0 in preseason. GL

I know he did but his glory days are over. I liked KAKA a lot but he is just not surrounded by top quality people like he used to or even when he was in Sao Paolo in Brazil just few months ago.
The equalizer he scored was a lucky deflection on a free kick, believe me when I say that it was painful to watch that game between Orlando - NYC. If KAKA gets a couple of more quality players I think Orlando can improve dramatically otherwise is going to be a long season for him and Orlando. GL bro!

[Joenaes]

Great job so far Papa. Gonna need a lot of help on this one though .

[Joenaes]

Any plays for today, you are being missed

[smithah2]

Yes I agree

[cogiditopapa]

Until tomorrow fellas, indeed Houston left us hanging. I am currently at the beach having a beer, I Will have One for you all! Cheers!

[Enjoi]

Always good to have a break.

Enjoy it

[cogiditopapa]

3/17

AtleticoMadrid - BayernKeverkusen
Over 2,2.5 at 1.975 (0.5 units)

Monaco - Arsenal
Arsenal to qualify at 7.0 (0.25 units)

[cogiditopapa]

Danubio - Corinthians
Corinthians -1 at 2.30 (1 unit)

Zamora - BocaJuniors
BocaJuniors over 1.5 at 1.90 (0.5 units)

[cogiditopapa]

3/18

Barcelona - ManCity
Over 3.5 at 2.05 (0.5 units)

BorussiaDortmund - Juventus
BTTS at 1.80 (0.5 units)

Emelec - Internacional
Over 2.5 & BTTS at 2.62 (0.5 units)

DeportivoTachira - GuaraniAsuncion
Over 2.5 & BTTS at 1.95 (0.5 units)

IndependienteDeSantaFe - AtleticoMineiro
IndependienteDeSantaFe -0.5,-1.0 at (0.5 units)
IndependienteDeSantaFe - 1.0 at 2.675 (0.5 units)

[cogiditopapa]

3/18

Torino - Zenit
Zenit 0.0,+0.5 at 1.77 (0.5 units)

Sevilla - Villareal
Over 2.5 & BTTS at 1.83 (0.5 units)

DinamoKiev - Everton
DinamoKiev over 1.5 at 2.0 (0.5 units)

Inter - Wolfsburg
Over 2.5 & BTTS at 1.83 (0.5 units)

RiverPlate - JuanAurich
RiverPlate over 2.5 at 1.90 (1 unit)

AtleticoDeMedellin - Barcelona
AtleticoDeMedellin over 1.5 at 1.66 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

Adding 3.68 units to RiverPlate over 2.5 team total
total units in this play 4.68.

[cogiditopapa]

3/26

Iran - Chile
Chile Over 1.5 at 1.80 (0.5 units)

CostaRica - Paraguay
BTTS at 2.0 (0.5 units)

[smithah2]

i miss when you posted daily. its hard to find time.

[Enjoi]

What's up Cogz?

Where you been bud? Hope all is well

[cogiditopapa]

Everything good bro, was just taking a quick break.

3/29

Brazil - Chile
Brazil over 1.5 at 1.72 (1 unit)

[Enjoi]

Hope you are well rested bud.

Let's get back to making some dough.

What's Brazils line up like tonight?

[Enjoi]

Their mid field is terrible compared to Chiles. Barely any control

[Coach Potato]

ye. this game has been pretty terrible so far. hopefully itll open up more in the second half wen they make wholesale changes