Scandinavia & the uefa tornaments

[chuda]

Well, I definitely hope that they will stop right now!

they really pulled long good play good odds... will do it again

[bernardoGui]

Swedish 'Allsvenskan' league

- Monday August 4th 2014 -


AIK Stockholm @ IFK Göteborg


1. 'Under 3 AH' @ -152 x 1.55 u.

2. AIK Stockholm 'DNB' @ +175 (not +275 as wrongly stated in the above) x. 0.45 u.

AIK Stockholm @ IFK Göteborg


1. 'Under 3 AH' @ -152 x 1.55 u. (+1.05 u.).

2. AIK Stockholm 'DNB' @ +175 (not +275 as wrongly stated in the above) x. 0.45 u. (+0.79 u.)

[ +1.84 u.]


bernardoGui's Footy record: 15 - 15 - 2 ( +2.34 u.).

[bernardoGui]

Back in the day (the 10th and the 11th Century), there were a lot of entrepreneurial folks around in Scandinavia (called Vikings by historians). They embarked on many-a' sailing trips to the British Islands, where they raped, pillaged and plundered. This is a culture you can still encounter in Scottish Soccer - to some extend..

Rangers vs. Hibernian - Scottish Cup

1. Total number of cards in the game: Over 4 AH @ -125 x. 1.25 u.

2. Total team goals: Rangers, Over 2.5 @ +120 x. 0.75 u.


G L.

[bernardoGui]

Meanwhile in Spain..


Espanyol @ Girona

1. Espanyol (ML) @ EV.

2. 'Over 1 AH - 1st half' @ -105 x. 1.55 u.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Meanwhile in Spain..


Espanyol @ Girona

1. Espanyol (ML) @ EV.

2. 'Over 1 AH - 1st half' @ -105 x. 1.55 u.


G L .

Starting the day off with a push..

However, I see this as a little 'wiggle-room' and I shall try:

Espanyol 'DNB' @ +240; HALF TIME LIVE BET.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

Raped, plundered and pillaged !


Tue. August 5th 2014: 0 - 3 - 2 ( -2.2 u.)


Hibernian @ Rangers - final result: 1-1 (reg.) / 0-1 at halftime; 1-2 (after extra time).

1. Total number of cards in the game: 4 cards in regular time. / PICK: Over 4 AH @ -125 x. 1.25 u. ( Push )

2. Total team goals: Rangers, Over 2.5 @ +120 x. 0.75 u. ( -0.75 u.)


Espanyol @ Girona - final result: 1-2 / 0-1 at halftime.

3. Espanyol (ML) @ EV. (-1 u.)

4. 'Over 1 AH - 1st half' @ -105 x. 1.55 u. ( Push )

5. [HALF TIME BET] Espanyol 'DNB' @ +240 x 0.45 u. ( -0.45 u.)



bernardoGui's Footy record: 15 - 18 - 4 ( +0.14 u.)

[bernardoGui]

A few preliminary picks for tomorrow's Champions League Qualifiers. I don't think the prices are getting any better on these, than now.. Anyways:


Aab @ Din. Zagreb (1st leg result: 0-1 Din. Zagreb).

What can I say!? Aab is on the chase, both teams are capable of scoring goals and their form has been very good, as of late.

1. 'Over 2 goals AH' @ -232 x 4.64 u.

2. 'Over 2.5 goals' @ -115 x 2.3 u.


Good night & good luck !

[bernardoGui]

Fresh from Aab's training session @ Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb.



[from Aab's 7WITTER page]

[bernardoGui]

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers - 2nd Leg match

- Aug. 6th, 2014 -


Aab - Aalborg BK @ Dinamo Zagreb


BOVADA LINES:

Aab(ML): +475 / Draw: +300 / Din. Zagreb(ML): -200 . // Over 2.5 goals: -110 / Under: -120.

BET365 LINES:

Aab(ML): +475 / Draw: +275 / Din. Zagreb(ML): -167 . // Over 2.5 goals: EV. / Under: -125.

[25 mins. before kick off]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


At the Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb, the empty stands are not only a day time phenomenon these days. Saturday evening, when Dinamo won 5-0 in a league match vs. Zadar in 'Prime Time', there were only 1.976 attendants in an arena with a total capacity of 38.923. According to local Journalists, no one is expecting much more than 5.000 attendants tonight.


STRANGE DAYS IN ZAGREB ?

One would expect that a club with 9(!) consecutive(!) League titles could fill an arena anywhere, anytime. Especially when You add the DNA of the 'Balkan Fans'. Reality, however, is that prominent Stakeholders as well as large fractions of the most hardcore Din. Zagreb supporters (Bad Blue Boys, as they call themselves), have been boycotting their beloved Champions for quite some time now.


BUSINESS AS USUAL !

During these latest 10 years of total dominance in the national League, the club has also been under the total reign of Chairman Zdravko Mamic. Mamic, it seems, has now lost the last bit of confidence from the club supporters, who claim that many of his decisions as Chairman, have actually damaged the club. Supporters of the club have yet to forgive Mamic for the treatment of Luka Modric and the deal, which finally 'took' him away from them in 2008. Another controversial decision was, when Mamic chose to appoint his brother Zoran, as 1st team Manager and Director of Sports in the club. Oh and by the way: in his 11 ongoing years as Chairman, 15(!) different Head Coaches / Managers have been employed. 14 deployed, I take it!?

In other words, one could claim that, however strange the context of this match might seem, the situation in the stands of the Maksimir is only the new face of a conflict, that has been going on for about dacade. Maybe even from the day Zdravko Mamic 'took' office with his ways? Either way, that is what the supporters are feeling, according to Croatian Journalist Aleksandar Holiga. As such, the situation on game day in Zagreb is 'business as usual'. And then again; it is not going to be an inferno of fireworks and fascism in the stands at the Maksimir tonight.

Oh strange and unforeseeable evening in Zagreb!


G . L .

[bernardoGui]

Congratulations to Malmö FF on their advancement into the Play Off round !

Sparta Prague @ Malmö FF - final result: 0 - 2 / (0-1).

Aggregate: 4 - 4.

Malmö FF win series by away goals.

[bernardoGui]

Except for HJK of Helsinki, it's been an impressive Scandinavian run so far this evening.

Go on lads! Bring it home to Papa..

[bernardoGui]

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers - 2nd Leg match

- Aug. 6th, 2014 -


Aab - Aalborg BK @ Dinamo Zagreb

How can they not score on those chances!?

3. [LIVE BET in the 72nd minute] 'Over 9 corners' @ EV. x. 1.5 u.

[chuda]

malmo to qualify @ 6
AaB to qualify @ 7

could of been nice bets... northerners done well today

[bernardoGui]

Very much indeed; or rather: some Northerners. I ended up with 1 push and 1 loss + 1 f@ckin' me-being-plain-stupid-chase-bet-loss, burning not just 2.3 but 3.8 units total on the day.

So Yeah - could have, would have, should have..

[bernardoGui]

But on the other hand, it really has been a fantastic Scandinavian Soccer fiesta this evening!

FC Copenhagen, AAB and Malmö FF are all in the bowl for the play-off draw on Friday.

Nice going!


-----------------------------------------------------------

As for me, there's no way around it: 15 - 20 - 5 ( -3.66 u.).


She has sung, it's over and I'm out. Peace!

[bernardoGui]

So far, the Scandinavian clubs have disappointed in their EL matches today.

With both Molde and Esbjerg out of the tournament, we are hanging our hats on IFK Göteborg, Brommapojkarna, Rosenborg, Vikingur, Brøndby, Elfsborg or Hafnarfjordur and AIK Stockholm. But it doesn't look too good!

Now, after a couple of days with some mis-pickin', I haven't made any bets for today yet. And watching the developments in the AIK match especially, I actually feel quite lucky that i didn't. Truth is, that I was leaning to play AIK(ML) after 1-1 in Kazakhstan and their 2-0 win in Gothenburg on Monday. But the lines changed fast after that second match and I decided to wait, see and figure..

Good for me! We'll see..


UEFA EL QUALIFIERS - 3rd round, 2nd leg


IFK Göteborg @ Rio Ave


1. IFK Göteborg to score min 1 goal @ -140 x 1.4 u.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

So far, the Scandinavian clubs have disappointed in their EL matches today.

With both Molde and Esbjerg out of the tournament, we now hang our hats on IFK Göteborg, Rosenborg, Vikingur, Brøndby, Elfsborg or Hafnarfjordur and AIK Stockholm. But it doesn't look too good!

Now, after a couple of days with some mis-pickin', I haven't made any bets for today yet. And watching the developments in the AIK match especially, I actually feel quite lucky that i didn't. Truth is, that I was leaning to play AIK(ML) after 1-1 in Kazakhstan and their 2-0 win in Gothenburg on Monday. But the lines changed fast after that second match and I decided to wait, see and figure..

Good for me! We'll see..


UEFA EL QUALIFIERS - 3rd round, 2nd leg


IFK Göteborg @ Rio Ave


1. IFK Göteborg to score min 1 goal @ -140 x 1.4 u.


G L .

PS. The logic behind the play is simple: being a Soccer team, IFK will score goals again! I know they are 1 goal in 5 matches and that they are playing a Portuguese team in Portugal, but nevertheless.. I think that a minimum of 1 IFK goal is actually more probable than them not scoring in their 5th consecutive match..

[bernardoGui]

"THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THIS AND CUSTER'S LAST STAND
WAS THAT CUSTER DIDN'T HAVE TO
LOOK AT THE TAPE AFTERWARD".




The second after. Esbjerg Manager, Niels Frederiksen, upon loosing the qualification in the dying seconds.




With a possible total of 10 Scandinavian teams advancing into the Europa League play offs this evening, I expected that 3 of them would advance: AIK Stockholm, Elfsborg and Esbjerg FB. That did not happen! Instead, only 2 teams advanced (Elfsborg and Stjarnan) and ironically, Elfsborg's advancement was at the expense of another Scandinavian team: Hafnarfjordur of Iceland.

Along with Danish team FC Midtjylland, HJK Helsinki and Icelandic Stjarnan, Elfsborg will be in the bowl at the UEFA PLAY OFF DRAW taking place in Nyon today at 13.00 CET. Because of the current Danish UEFA ranking, and their 3rd place finish in the Danish league last season, FCM enters the tournament at this stage. HJK's entry is a 'second prize', retrieved from the loss in the 3rd round CL qualifiers.

As for the Champions League Qualifiers, on Wednesday evening, I honestly gave the Scandi's an even smaller chance.. What happened? 3 of 4 teams advanced: Malmö FF, FC Copenhagen and my beloved Aab - Aalborg BK. Why do I love them, you might ask. Here's an example on how You would prefer to structure an away match in CL, say on Old Trafford:

http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/video/videoid=2130404.html?autoplay=true

Obviously it's not a win, but AaB made a fantastic run that season, finishing 3rd in the group and thereby earning a spot in the UEFA CUP knock outs. (Before June of 2009, Europa League was called UEFA CUP).

Anyways.. As the past is behind us soon enough, the competitive future looks rather steep for the seven remaining teams, representing Scandinavia in the two tournaments.

As for Aab and Malmö FF, the line up of possible adversaries in the Champions League draw, starting one hour earlier at 12.00 CET, is as follows: FC Salzburg (AUT), FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROU), APOEL FC (CYP), FC BATE Borisov (BLR), PFC Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL).

FC Copenhagen are facing an even scarier draw, risking adversaries such as: Arsenal FC (ENG), FC Porto (POR), FC Zenit (RUS), Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER), SSC Napoli (ITA).


GOOD NIGHT & GOOD LUCK !

[tttl]

FC København (DEN) v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) - 19/27 August
Aalborg BK (DEN) v APOEL FC (CYP) - 20/26 August

[bernardoGui]

FC København (DEN) v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) - 19/27 August
Aalborg BK (DEN) v APOEL FC (CYP) - 20/26 August

Thanks for the update, 'tttl' !






Here's the full program of the 7 Scandinavian teams remaining, in the UEFA tournaments:


Champions League Play Offs

1st leg matches on Aug. 19th and 20th 2014:


1. FC Salzburg vs. Malmö FF

2. FC Copenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen

3. Aalborg BK vs. Apoel Nicosia



Europa League Play Offs

1st leg matches on Thursday, Aug. 21st 2014:


4. Stjarnan (IS) vs. Internazionale

5. HJK Helsinki (FI) vs. Rapid Wien

6. Elfsborg (SE) vs. Rio Ave (remember the Unders, god d@mn it !!)

7. Panathinaikos vs. FC Midtjylland (DK)

[Kelloggs]

Stjarnan

[bernardoGui]

Stjarnan

That's right my friend !! Don't know about those 'Internazionale' though.. You might want to check up on them!?


Watching the friendly between Barca and HJK. HJK are going to do a lot better, if they wanna stay in the UEFA tournament. Behind 0-4 after 23 minutes in the 1st half!

Aalborg BK are playing at home vs. FC Nordsjælland in 15 mins. Leaning 'Over 2.5' @ -114 and 'Over 3 AH' @ +143.

Aab start 11:

Larsen, Kristensen, KE Petersen, Blåbjerg, Børsting, Augo, Risgård, Enevoldsen, Helenius, Jakobsen


..Maybe a small play on the AK47 to assualt once again!?

[bernardoGui]

International Friendly

- Sat. August 9th 2014 -


FC Barcelona @ HJK Helsinki - final result: 0 - 6 / (0-4)

There will be some drinking in Helsinki this evening, I'm sure. Then sweatin' it out in the Saunas tomorrow..

It's going to be interesting to see how HJK react to these latest two matches; two losses and a goal difference of -8 (0-8!).

HJK takes on Inter Turku @ home on the coming Wednesday and as we keep in mind, that HJK are leading the Finnish 'Veikkausliiga' with 48 points in 22 matches and a goal difference of +26 (39:13), the 'Overs' already looks like they might be worth a shot. When You add, that Inter Turku are holding an immediate #9 of 12 teams in the league, with 26 points in 23 matches and a goal difference of -7 (28:35), I also expect a comfortable HJK win and thus keeping an eye on the ML and the handicap lines as well. At the moment, there are no lines available.



Danish 'Superliga'

- Sat. August 9th 2014 -


FC Nordsjælland @ Aab - Aalborg BK

It seems that Aab's strategy to try and kill the match after 1-0 has come back to hit them hard! They seem tired after wednesday's bash in Zagreb, which is understandable I guess, but they are definitely not playing up to their best today. Two major 'rookie-like-mistakes' has now cost two goals.

It's 2-1 FCN, my team is behind but I hit a winner for once!! 'Over 2.5' - check! Didn't pull the trigger on any of the two other leans though. Money- and Pick Management!

[bernardoGui]

FC Nordsjælland @ Aab - Aalborg BK - final result: 2 - 1 / (0-1).

1. 'Over 2.5 goals' @ -114 x 1.14 u. ( +1 u.)



bernardoGui's Footy record: 16 - 21 - 5 ( -4.06 u.).

[bernardoGui]

Enjoying 'Biggie-Smalls' Christian Eriksen and Tottenham play with 'se Germans

[bernardoGui]

With today's matches unfolding, information is up for grasps. And it's free too!



It is no secret, that I've had my eyes on Leicester to finish the 14/15 Premier League Season, as best placed Up Comer. With a decent squad, good depth and an outstanding keeper, Leicester pays an EVEN STEVEN on this line. However, a lot of things can happen during the span of a season and I have found another line - 'Leicester to record OVER 39½ points' @ -113, which I think could be more valuable in the long run.

Looking at the numbers from the latest 5 PRL seasons, the AVERAGE total of points needed to stay in the league is 35.8 points. As a comparison, the AVERAGE total of points needed to finish as #10 in PRL for the latest 5 seasons is 47 points in a total of 38 matches.. I won't say that the Foxes will finish as #10 or better, but I am rather confident, on the other hand, that they will stay up. I've already got that line booked @ -250 and I see that it has dropped even further in the meantime (-300). -250 is a tad expensive, but with the developments in the other expected 'sub-clubs' of the Premiership in mind (Hull, Crystal Palace, Burnley and QPR), backing Leicester in this particular race, is not really any sweat in my opinion.

Leicester finished last season's Championship as an almost undisputed #1 with 102 points in 46 matches and a goal difference of +40 (83:43). Burnley, whom I see as the most serious contender to the 'best placed Up Comer' title after Leicester, finished last season's Championship at 93 points and a goal difference of +35 (72:37). In this balance, Burnley actually conceded less goals than Leicester and their Danish keeper Kasper Schmeichel.

Schmeichel has been one of Leicester City's stand-out performers again this season, keeping 17 clean sheets and conceding 37 goals in 29 matches. I'll spare myself the agonies of match-by-match analysis and either way the goals might have been conceded and who's fault it may have been, 17 clean sheets in 46 matches is marginally better than 33% Outstanding!

However, there are rumors that other clubs (Arsenal for one) have their eyes opon the 27-year-old Danish National Keeper. This would suggest, that Leicester might not be able to keep Schmeichel as much as he keeps them. For now, I have no solid information on any near-standing transfers though.

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Arsenal-lining-Leicester-City-goalkeeper-Kasper/story-21035619-detail/story.html

NOW. The question is this: Will Leicester City be able to record at least 40 points - approximately 40% of their total Championship record last season - in the English Premier League season of 2014/15?

It's hard to know anything else, than the record of highly competitive and consistent form they've been keeping for a long period now.

Since their qualification for the Premiership, Leicester have played 7 matches; they've won 6 and made 1 DRAW. The goal difference in these 7 matches is +12 (17:5). 2 clean sheets / conceding 5 in 5.


I'm laying 2.26 units on 'Leicester City to record over 39½ points' in the Premiership season of 2014/15.


NB

All three Premier League Up Comers have played International friendlies today; with very different outcomes.

1. Leicester vs. Werder Bremen - final result: 1 - 0 / (1-0).

2. Queens Park Rangers vs. PAOK (Greece) - final result: 0 - 1 / (0-0).

3. Burnley vs. Hellas Verona - final result: 3 - 1 / (0-0).


..still considering the 'best Up Comer' @ EV.



A peaceful evening to all !

[bernardoGui]

Back to scandinavia again





Re-focusing on Sunday's Scandinavian slates, many of our usual suspects will be in action once again. A few Monday-nighters have found their way as well.


-SUNDAY -


Swedish 'Allsvenskan'

Brommapojkarna vs. Falkenbergs

1. Brommapojkarna 'DNB' @ -160.


AIK Stockholm vs. Gefle

2. AIK Stockholm vs. Gefle - 'Over 3 goals AH' @ +115.



Norwegian 'Tippeliga'

Molde vs. Stabæk

3. Molde -1.5 @ -160.


Danish 'Superliga'

FC København vs. Hobro

4. FC København -1 AH @ -200.



- MONDAY -


Icelandic 'Pepsideild'

Stjarnan vs. Thor Akureyri

5. Stjarnan to win 1st half @ -125.


Danish 'Superliga'

Esbjerg FB vs. Silkeborg IF

6. Esbjerg -1 AH @ +135.


G L .

[mgoncalves10]

What are your thoughts on Malmo..

[bernardoGui]

What are your thoughts on Malmo..

With the Malmö (ML) laying @ about -115 at the moment AND the IFK Göteborg (ML) @ +333, this looks like a no brainer.

But let's face it: the Malmö FF - IFK Göteborg match this late CET-afternoon, is a hard one to come to terms with. Within the last hour, the prize on Malmö FF (ML) has gone from -138 to -115.

IFK have been frightful to watch lately and they haven't scored a goal in 5 matches. I had them to score vs. Rio Ave - they didn't - and my initial thoughts for today, were to chase that bet. Either 'Malmö FF, NO Clean Sheet' @ about -187, 'IFK Under 1.5 goals' @ about -320 or 'IFK Over 1.5 goals' @ about +245.

If I had to pick one, it would have to be 'Malmö FF, NO Clean Sheet' @ -187, but I think it's too expensive. Obviously the 'IFK Over 1.5 goals' is tempting to try because often times, after a goal drought, those f@ckers come in swarms. But I just don't know about IFK. Malmö have a table lead to defend and they are at home vs. a team with mental problems as well as injuries and suspensions. IFK signed a Dane yesterday, but Søren Rieks is not in the squad today.

IFK Defenders Kjetil Waehler and Adam Johansson are suspended for today's match.

Back in the squad are: Emil Salomonsson and Central Defender Patrick Dyrestam.

IFK Squad:

John Alvbåge, Marcus Sandberg, Emil Salomonsson, Mattias Bjärsmyr, Patrick Dyrestam, Hjalmar Jonsson, Ludwig Augustinsson, Billy Nordström, Sam Larsson, Daniel Sobralense, Jakob Johansson, Martin Smedberg–Dalence, Joel Allansson, May Mahlangu, Gustav Svensson, Lasse Vibe, Robin Söder, Gustav Engvall, Karl Bohm.


In the light of the above, I am leaning more and more towards the totals (Over 2 goals AH and Over 2.5) OR 'BTTS'.

If you are a mystic, believing that goal droughts and other spells are meant to be broken - even in the most hopeless of situations - you pick the IFK 'DNB' @ +230, 'Lasse Vibe to score at least 1 goal' @ +175 AND the 'IFK, Over 1.5 goals in match' @ +250.


G L .

[bernardoGui]

What are your thoughts on Malmo..

If You pick goalscorers, my experience is that it is a good idea to pick 2. Especially on an afternoon like this, when you'll have 2 of the top goalscorers in Sweden on pitch. Vibe & Rosenberg. Suggestion: 2 x 0.5 u.

G L .

[beefcake]

I see you are on the over train in AIK games..Their players should get back to focusing after a Champ League exit..Like that they have 4 rest days since that.

[bernardoGui]

I see you are on the over train in AIK games..Their players should get back to focusing after a Champ League exit..Like that they have 4 rest days since that.

You'd expect 4 rest days to be sufficient on this level. As far as I can see, they only had 2 whole 'rest' days since Thursday and obviously that hasn't been enough to get AIK back on track.

All the other 'UEFA participants' also seem very tired.. These last couple of weeks have been a challenge and it is costing at the moment.

I won't comment on Molde's 2nd half, nor FCK's result, as it stands at the moment, but it certainly looks like I've posted the wrong 'Over' today ;-)

Rosenberg on the board in Malmö though..

[bernardoGui]

AIK GOAL !! Come on..


IFK GOAL !!! What's happening in Sweden!? A DANE IS HAPPENING !

[bernardoGui]

What are your thoughts on Malmo..

Thanks for the 'reminder'

[bernardoGui]

I see you are on the over train in AIK games..Their players should get back to focusing after a Champ League exit..Like that they have 4 rest days since that.

2 days of 'rest' was enough, it seems.. And not all 2nd halfs a nightmare!

For the record, AIK Stockholm were knocked out from Europa League on Thursday.

Malmö FF showed some vulnerabilities today and as they approach a much tighter schedule these next three weeks, they will be even more vulnerable in 'Allsvenskan'. AIK smelled the blood today, secured the 2nd spot and they are now only 4 points behind Malmö FF at #1.

Elfsborg goes to Gothenburg tomorrow (@ Häcken), in a match that will be deciding the immediate 3rd and 4th place in Allsvenskan. How will Elfsborg react in the midst of their UEFA campaign, advancing, but lost the 2nd legger in Iceland and so on. Will they be too tired or is the loss on Thursday night more an indirect information that tells us, that Elfsborg 'economized' their squad and their energy in order to make 'better odds' for yet an important match, come Monday!?