System based on a model that i projected

[Burkina2008]

So based on my model these are the bets for tomorrow 25.4

[Burkina2008]

Bets for tomorrow and results until today afternoon

Bet Units: 33,75
Profit: 9,44 (27,98%)
Record - 11-4-1

[addictedto]

Welcome on board.
And good luck.

[Burkina2008]

Bets from 25.4 and 26.4

Bet Units: 316,05
Profit: 5,83 (1,85%)
Record - 64-45-4

[Burkina2008]

Bets for 27.4

[MustWinPlease]

what the hell is this

[Burkina2008]

Its a model of betting based on my AH and my O/U and the line of the bookies, using a semi- Kelly criterion

[MakePwithMe]

[Burkina2008]

Bets from 27.4

Bet Units: 129,05
Profit: 17,38 (13,47%)
Record - 27-19-3

[Burkina2008]

Bets for 28.4



Record of the system
Bet Units: 445,10
Profit: 23,21 (+5,21%)
Record - 91-64-7

[bullock]

You want to say you have created a model for soccer having game stats as an input?

[Burkina2008]

Yes it is based on stats and on recent form

[tainted]

how do i read the sheet on what to take?

[Burkina2008]

Day

League

1

2

AH

Goals

Bookies AH

H/A

Bet U

Bookies Goals

O/U

Bet U

Result

Bookmaker

Odd AH

Bookmaker

Odd O/U

28.04.2014

Austria Erste

St. Polten

Altach

St Polten +0,72

4,43

St Polten +0,25

A

2,35

2,75

O

8,4

SBO

2,13

SBO

1,82

Ok so for example on this one my system tells me a fair line would be St. Polten +0,72 and 4,43 goals
The line of the bookies are St. Polten +0,25 and 2,75 goals

So I am taking:
Altach -0,25 at odds 2,13 at SBObet for 2,35 Units
Over 2,75 at odds 1,82 at SBObet for 8,4 Units

[tainted]

so basically just have to look under the H/A and O/U column and if its H, means taking home team and O means take over?

[Burkina2008]

yes that is it

[tainted]

thanks!

[Burkina2008]

Bets from 28.4

Bet Units: 27,9
Profit: 2,08(7,46%)
Record - 3-6-1

[Burkina2008]

Bets for 29.4 to 1.5




Record of the system
Bet Units: 473
Profit: 25,29 (+5,35%)
Record - 94-70-8

[EasyPicks]

did u track the model previously? if yes, how far behind?

thx and gl

[Prince88]

gotit

[Burkina2008]

did u track the model previously? if yes, how far behind?

thx and gl

Not this model. I had another model that did not take into account form and after 11k games had a 0,98% profit (33652,03 Bet Units/329,79 Units won) over a period of 7 months. But since it was also very divergent from league to league (some leagues profit was close to 5% while others was -4%) I decided to "improve" or "upgrade" the model. Its working better so far, but until I have around 3k game bets, I would not be cheearing much...I am gunning for 2,5%-3% profit (that would be very good already)

[EasyPicks]

If you can reach for the 2.5-3% I bet you can still filter a little bit more and get to a safety zone of +5%


The only real problem I see there is the tons of games you have to play (realistically, unless u have a monster bankroll and if you did u should be playing something else) making the unit size really small (max 10 to 15€ max).

[Prince88]

with all the respect to easypicks, i think you should stick to your plan... only you know your bankroll size and have deep knowledge of the system..
im looking forward for the next picks and see how this goes in the long run...
goodluck

[Burkina2008]

Midweek results (until 29.4)
Bet Units: 21,05
Profit: -5,32 (-24,7%)
Record - 2-5-3

[Burkina2008]

If you can reach for the 2.5-3% I bet you can still filter a little bit more and get to a safety zone of +5%


The only real problem I see there is the tons of games you have to play (realistically, unless u have a monster bankroll and if you did u should be playing something else) making the unit size really small (max 10 to 15€ max).

I think 5% is a bit too much...I cant see this system going that high. If I can reach 3,25%-3,5% I am a super happy man. Some leagues changes might happen but not before I reach around 3k bets.

The inicial bankroll was 10k (devided into 8 bookies (not the same amount in each)) and a unit is 10 euros.

[Burkina2008]

Midweek results (until 30.4)
Bet Units: 33,53
Profit: 3,77 (11,24%)
Record - 7-6-3



There will be no bets on the weekend since I have a heavy flying weekend and have absolutly no time to post
Next bets will be for midweek 5-9 May

[Burkina2008]

Midweek results (until 30.4)
Bet Units: 42,13
Profit: 9,67 (22,95%)
Record - 9-6-3




Record of the system
Bet Units: 515,13
Profit: 34,96 (+6,79%)
Record - 103-76-11

[EasyPicks]

no big Europeans leagues or uefa competitions. Any particular reason?

[singgooner]

Wow, great system - but surely too many picks for 1 day or evening.

Have you tried to streamline the number of bets via filters - like only backing a certain bet if it's over 75% or 80% positive from your system ?

Maybe by being very selective - your number of bets will go down - your profit might rise and your ROI will dramatically increase.

I am not knocking you mate - just trying to make your betting more profitable - keep it going - it looks like an awesome spreadsheet

[Burkina2008]

no big Europeans leagues or uefa competitions. Any particular reason?

Well the lines are much sharper in those leagues and I believe in most of them there close to no value...

Wow, great system - but surely too many picks for 1 day or evening.

Have you tried to streamline the number of bets via filters - like only backing a certain bet if it's over 75% or 80% positive from your system ?

Maybe by being very selective - your number of bets will go down - your profit might rise and your ROI will dramatically increase.

I am not knocking you mate - just trying to make your betting more profitable - keep it going - it looks like an awesome spreadsheet

I have all the bets that I am sure about 50%+ in green on the excel, but the sample is way too small. Further the objective from this is to gather as many units profit as possible at the moment. Around November I should get close to the 3k bets and then I can make an in depth analysis

Thanks for your comments anyway.

[Prince88]

keep it up..
looking forward to see more !

[Burkina2008]

Bets for 7.5 to 9.5

[Prince88]

waiting for the updated and complete spreadsheet

[EasyPicks]

can you tell me the average line you are getting? (for the last 189 bets u made)

thx