MutaPukan's Football (Not soccer)

[MutaPukan]

Rest of plays for Tuesday 25/02/2014:

Luton v Wrexham >>>> Luton -1 AH @ 1.95 (10 units)

Kidderminster v Woking >>>> Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (5 unit)

Olympiacos v Man Utd >>>> Man Utd -1 AH @ 3.30 ( 2 units) & ML @ 2.30 (3 units)

Cruzeiro v U.De Chile >>>> Cruzeiro -1 AH @ 1.88 (5 units)

Swindon v Crawley Town >>>> Swindon @ 2.35 (5 units) & Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (5 units)

[vasilli07]

CCM have too many changes, the coach then the selling of several key players.

[MutaPukan]

I thought about this a lot and decided to play it as my final bet of the day.

Zenit v Dortmund >>>> Zenit and draw double chance @ 2.05 (3 units)

To me this is going to be a coin flip, everyone have the memo by now, we all know that Dortmund have some problems and we all know that Zenit might not be in competition form as of yet etc. All these factors could be looked at both ways and at the end we have to make a subjective decision about it if were going to get involved. For me i know that it's not easy to play Zenit, they are not always impressive but it's really not easy to play them, they have had enough time to prepare for this very game and i fancy Zenit & Co to not loose here, at the end of the day this is a value play.
However considering all the factors in hand for me this is a good play in the long term and that's what my whole project is about.

[MutaPukan]

CCM have too many changes, the coach then the selling of several key players.

Yeah agree. Mistake on my part for thinking somehow they might pull it out their hopeless arses.
Looking at how terrible they are it will be routine for me to fade them with the spread against decent teams.

[MutaPukan]

Ok, going to make a couple of live moves.

Zenit v Dortmund>>>> Over 4 @ 1.98 (5 units) 2-0 "26

[MutaPukan]

Esteghlal v Al Shabab Over 1.5 @ 2.16 (3 units) 0-1 "73

[MutaPukan]

I'm going to get some assistance from Luton to make up for losses of Esteghlal.

Luton v Wrexham >>> Luton @ 1.50 (10 units)

[MutaPukan]

AFC Asian Champions League, 25/02/2014

Esteghlal TEH v Al Shabab>>>>>>>Esteghlal TEH -0.5 @ 1.83 (3 units )

Al Jaish v Foolad>>>> Al Jaish PK @ 1.70 (5 units)

(Foolad have the ability to be solid here but they're not really all that experienced in Champions League and i think Al Jaish will have enough experience and quality to get the job done with the home advantage playing a fairly good role.)

FC Seoul v Central Coast Mariners >>>> CC Mariners +1 AH @ 2.06 (5 units)

(This is going to be an interesting one. The Mariners like all A-league clubs are just absolutely terrible when it comes to playing football, and initially even blindfolded i would fade them against FC Seoul away. But however this time i get the feeling that Seoul might not get the job done. They have had no preparation whatsoever leading to this game, they also lost their top scorer of last seasons AFC CL, Montenegro international Damjanovic who scored 7 goals for them to help them reach last years final and also have lost their captain.
The team will most likely lack in chemistry in this first game, on the other hand the Mariners have been very active and will have much more rhythm as a team. But once again i have to mention that A-league teams are absolutely shiit so this is not going to be an easy bet and i might very well loose it but considering the current conditions i am getting decent value for it and that's all that matters to me. Plus the Mariners will be boosted with the signing of Korean midfielder Kim Seung-Yong who was a former champion in the CL in the 2012 season with Ulsan Hyundai and he will have a huge role for the Mariners.

Shandong Leung v Buriram united >>>> Shandong Leung -1 AH @ 2.20 (5 units) & ML @ 1.60 (5 units)

Al Jazira v Al Rayyan >>>>> Al Rayyan and draw double chance @ 2.00 (3 units) & +1 AH @ 1.51 (6 units)

Added:
Al Fath v Bunyodkor >>>>>Al Fath DNB @ 1.60 (5 units)

Totally terrible set of picks that i made on todays AFC CL, but we shall continue.........

[MutaPukan]

Current stats:
6-4-9
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: $4832.50

[MutaPukan]

Luton are fuckkin beasts...9 mins in and 2-0 up

[MutaPukan]

Rest of plays for Tuesday 25/02/2014:

Luton v Wrexham >>>> Luton -1 AH @ 1.95 (10 units)

Luton v Wrexham >>>> Luton @ 1.50 (10 units)

Kidderminster v Woking >>>> Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (5 unit)

Olympiacos v Man Utd >>>> Man Utd -1 AH @ 3.30 ( 2 units) & ML @ 2.30 (3 units)

Cruzeiro v U.De Chile >>>> Cruzeiro -1 AH @ 1.88 (5 units)

Swindon v Crawley Town >>>> Swindon @ 2.35 (5 units) & Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (5 units)

Managed to loose quite a bit today, i got excited and played more than i would normally like to. I have to admit the worst pick of the day was Man Utd, bunch of clowns. This goes to show, we should get rid of whatever stupid perception that's in our heads about some teams/players and go with the ones who "actually" are in better shape and Olympiacos was certainly in that position tonight.
I would have normally faded MU, but somehow because Mitroglu, Weiss are gone(whom contributed a lot in the group stages) and with Saviola out, and the new faces in the team i thought maybe they would not have the same strength but i was dead wrong and i admit it.

Perception plays a big role in the bad picks that we make. The only way i can describe it is this solidified perception in your head that's been pounded and pounded for many years, that sometimes makes you hesitate picking the truth-bet's e.g. Olympiacos but instead you pick the fake perception that you have in your head. This is one of the main things i will be working on, and that is to let go of all perception and look at betting situations completely objectively.
Will be getting back to work tomorrow again, there are many spots i like and i think tomorrow hopefully i will be back in the + zone.
Good night and best of luck.

Current stats:
9-4-13
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: $4777.50

[MutaPukan]

Copa Libertadores

Velez Sarsfield v Atl.Paranense >>> Velez -1 @ 2.02 (5 units)

[MutaPukan]

Copa Libertadores

Gremio v Atl.Nacional >>> Over 2.5 @ 2.70 (3 units) & Gremio -1 AH @ 2.50 (2 units)

[MutaPukan]

Copa Libertadores

Velez Sarsfield v Atl.Paranense >>> Velez -1 @ 2.02 (5 units)

10-4-13
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: 5032.50

[MutaPukan]

Copa Libertadores

Gremio v Atl.Nacional >>> Over 2.5 @ 2.70 (3 units) & Gremio -1 AH @ 2.50 (2 units)

Couldn't have asked for a better result in this game. Result was 3-0 to Gremio hit both bets.

12-4-13
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: 5437.50
+437.50

[MutaPukan]

AFC Champions League 26/02/2014

Kawasaki Frontale v Guizhou Renhe >>> Kawasaki -1 @ 2.08 (3 units)

WSW v Ulsan Hyundai >>> Ulsan DNB @ 2.10 (2 units) & draw @ 3.22 (1 unit)

[MutaPukan]

lol 1 minute after i took Ulsan +0.25 @ 1.87 in play 1-1 they score! Nice! (5 units) on it, i knew they would come back, better position, just look more sharp plus Australians can't play football. willing to risk 5 units to increase profit.

[MutaPukan]

Guangzhou Evergrande v Melbourne.V >>> Over 2.5 @ 1.55 (10 units)

I'm betting the juice here but more or less it's fair odds considering the attacking qualities and the potential of goals in both sides. I would be a little annoyed though if it doesn't hit.

Teraktor v Al Ittihad >>> Al Ittihad & draw double chance @ 1.91 (5 units)

I don't think the odds are in the right place here and i will exploit.
Teraktor overall has a solid record at home beating some of Irans best teams there but however lately they are not on top form and have some problems in defense and Al Ittihad will oppose a different kind of threat to Teraktor that they don't usually deal with i wont be surprised if Teraktor get lucky with a narrow win or something but i sure will be surprised if Teraktor win this game comfortably and that will prove the odds to be correct but i hope not.

[MutaPukan]

Boooooooom there goes Kawasaki 1-0...... sick mofos

[MutaPukan]

Final bet for the AFC CL today

Al Ain v Lakhwiya >>> Lakhwiya DNB @ 1.90 (5 units)

Lakhwiya is a very very sick team. New reinforcement of Weiss from Olympiacos has made them even sicker. Al Ain on the other hand are no push overs either very solid side but i fancy Lakhwiya they just have more ummphhhh to their play and if it's a draw, money refunded. A side with this much quality and ambition at these odds for a DNB, hell yeah i'm in.

[MutaPukan]

UEFA Champions League

Ok my last bet for today as i have many other things to do and will not have to time to get more action today. But however this is got to be my favorite lean of the day even if it looses.

Galatasaray v Chelsea >>> Galatasaray DNB @ 3.00 (5 units) & Galatasaray double chance @ 1.89 (5 units)

It's just that typical perception battle and that's why Chelsea are favorites here today. Chelsea should not be favorites here, The last time Gala lost at home was to RM 1-6 yeah it was crazy but those kind of shockers don't happen too often at Galatasaray, plus that was a gazillion years a go. As soon as Mancini took over there has been a whole new level of consistency at Galatasaray and of course that's what he gets paid for to do exactly that, especially with the stars he can work with and the top players that this team have. Galatasaray are no pushovers and and i don't care what mourinho is doing right now to boost his sides confidence but Mancini has defeated Chelsea 6 out of 11 times already so he's experience cannot be overlooked, it was that same kind of experience which defeated Juventus and sent them packing home.
I know one thing right now and that is Chelsea will be shittting themselves before this match, cause they know very very well how tough a place Gala is to go to. I trust this Galatasaray unit to hold the game pretty well.

[MutaPukan]

AFC Champions League 26/02/2014

Kawasaki Frontale v Guizhou Renhe >>> Kawasaki -1 @ 2.08 (3 units)

WSW v Ulsan Hyundai >>> Live bet, Ulsan +0.25 @ 1.87 (5 units) @ 1-1 "41

WSW v Ulsan Hyundai >>> Ulsan DNB @ 2.10 (2 units) & draw @ 3.22 (1 unit)

Current stats
14-5-14
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: $5715
+715

[onemoregoal]

good win on guangzhou.... 1-6 real was 6months ago though, not a gazillion yrs

[whareouttogetme]

UEFA Champions League

Ok my last bet for today as i have many other things to do and will not have to time to get more action today. But however this is got to be my favorite lean of the day even if it looses.

Galatasaray v Chelsea >>> Galatasaray DNB @ 3.00 (5 units) & Galatasaray double chance @ 1.89 (5 units)

It's just that typical perception battle and that's why Chelsea are favorites here today. Chelsea should not be favorites here, The last time Gala lost at home was to RM 1-6 yeah it was crazy but those kind of shockers don't happen too often at Galatasaray, plus that was a gazillion years a go. As soon as Mancini took over there has been a whole new level of consistency at Galatasaray and of course that's what he gets paid for to do exactly that, especially with the stars he can work with and the top players that this team have. Galatasaray are no pushovers and and i don't care what mourinho is doing right now to boost his sides confidence but Mancini has defeated Chelsea 6 out of 11 times already so he's experience cannot be overlooked, it was that same kind of experience which defeated Juventus and sent them packing home.
I know one thing right now and that is Chelsea will be shittting themselves before this match, cause they know very very well how tough a place Gala is to go to. I trust this Galatasaray unit to hold the game pretty well.

Gala cheated their way out of the group stages, they're not a strong squad. You're right it's a tough place to play, in fact 2 Chelsea fans got stabbed there earlier. Chelsea will play for them, and don't forget Jose is one hell of a manager.

[NoWay]

Very nice.

[NoWay]

I will be continuing MP's work.

[NoWay]

UEFA Champions League



Ok my last bet for today as i have many other things to do and will not have to time to get more action today. But however this is got to be my favorite lean of the day even if it looses.

Galatasaray v Chelsea >>> Galatasaray DNB @ 3.00 (5 units) & Galatasaray double chance @ 1.89 (5 units)

It's just that typical perception battle and that's why Chelsea are favorites here today. Chelsea should not be favorites here, The last time Gala lost at home was to RM 1-6 yeah it was crazy but those kind of shockers don't happen too often at Galatasaray, plus that was a gazillion years a go. As soon as Mancini took over there has been a whole new level of consistency at Galatasaray and of course that's what he gets paid for to do exactly that, especially with the stars he can work with and the top players that this team have. Galatasaray are no pushovers and and i don't care what mourinho is doing right now to boost his sides confidence but Mancini has defeated Chelsea 6 out of 11 times already so he's experience cannot be overlooked, it was that same kind of experience which defeated Juventus and sent them packing home.
I know one thing right now and that is Chelsea will be shittting themselves before this match, cause they know very very well how tough a place Gala is to go to. I trust this Galatasaray unit to hold the game pretty well.

Current stats
16-6-16
Initial bank: $5000
Current bank: $5713
+713

[NoWay]

Nice comeback Galatasaray

[NoWay]

Mexico
Monterrey v Pachua>>> Over2.5 @ 2.10 (3 units)

[NoWay]

Copa Libertadores

Atletico ** v Santa Fe >>>Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (3 units)

[NoWay]

Brazil:
Chapecoense v Brusque >>> Chapecoense ML @ 2.00 (5 units)

[NoWay]

Damn was going to take Cerro Porteno ML against Lanus but I missed it and didn't want to bet it live which was a big mistake now they're 3-0 fk fk fk

[Otaking]

MP = NoWay? Same bankroll?