Nastrovje's Picks

Nastrovje · 02-09-14, 03:11 PM

9.2. Hannover 96	0.3 to win 1.506
9.2. Hannover 96 (+1)	2 to win 1.887
9.2. Augsburg (+0)	1.5 to win 1.875
9.2. AS Roma	2 to win 2.06
9.2. Sporting Lisbon (+0.5)	1.5 to win 2.1

Not the best starting day.
Nice win from Augsburg. Roma should have really made the game. They got 0 shots at target, but just couldn't shoot one themselves. Hannover didn't show their skills and Schalke with 2 brilliant goals. After this game I might consider Schalke over Leverkusen next weekend. Also bet on Everton +0.5 in the last second, they were unlucky too and would have won with Lukaku. AVB sacking was the best thing that could happen to the Spurs. Benfica Game unfortunately postponed.

Let's hope Bilbao saves me/us tomorrow

I'm pretty confident with this pick, but as we saw today - the best teams on the pitch don't always win

1-3, -2.425U

MustWinPlease · 02-10-14, 05:16 AM

Nice picks few unlucky results
hope bilbao win but after seeing atletico lose to lowly almeria i'm not sure anymore..

Nastrovje · 02-11-14, 10:58 PM

9.2. Hannover 96	0.3 to win 1.506
9.2. Hannover 96 (+1)	2 to win 1.887
9.2. Augsburg (+0)	1.5 to win 1.875
9.2. AS Roma	2 to win 2.06
9.2. Sporting Lisbon (+0.5)	1.5 to win 2.1
10.2. Athletic Bilbao	3 to win 3.95

1-4, -5.425U

What a bad weekend. It can only go upwards from now on.
This is my 3rd time posting a thread here and every time i lost completely with my first post

But this time i'll continue the thread. If I'm still losing after this season, I'm going to fade myself.

Here my picks for the upcoming weekend

15.2. Borussia Mönchengladbach	2 to win 2.06
15.2. Monaco	2.5 to win 1.923
16.2. Rapid Vienna	2 to win 2.54
16.2. Nantes Atlantique +0	1 to win 1.82

BOL

Nastrovje · 02-16-14, 06:11 AM

adding

16.2. Lille

2 to win 2.28

Nastrovje · 02-16-14, 06:16 AM

adding

16.2. Valencia +0.5

2 to win 1.961

Nastrovje · 02-16-14, 06:34 PM

15.2. Borussia Mönchengladbach	2 to win 2.06
15.2. Monaco	2.5 to win 1.923
16.2. Rapid Vienna	2 to win 2.54
16.2. Nantes Atlantique +0	1 to win 1.82
16.2. Lille	2 to win 2.28
16.2. Valencia +0.5	2 to win 1.961

2-1-3, -2.116U
YTD 3-1-7, -7.541U

Really unlucky draw from Mönchengladbach against Bremen. Rapid played a lot better too until they got the red card. Haven't seen Lille but will do that soon. Pretty unlucky results until now, but this series has to end at some point.

Upcoming plays

18.2. Paris St. Germain	2 to win 2.82
18.2. Barcelona	2 to win 3.26
19.2. FC Bayern Munich	2.5 to win 2.193
20.2. Napoli	2.5 to win 4.1
20.2. Lyon	2 to win 2.98

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 06:10 PM

18.2. Paris St. Germain	2 to win 2.82
18.2. Barcelona	2 to win 3.26

2-0, +6.06U
5-1-7, -1.461U

Very close game between City and Barca. Lucky penalty that was actually just outside of the box followed by a red card. I think this double punishment has to end. Either you give a red card or a penalty, but both is just too much. When City was in offense they were always very dangerous, even with 10 men. I just don't know if it was Barca's defense or just the strong individual players of City.

Clear victory by PSG. Kinda angry that I didn't bet more cause the odds were really great. Also got the O3 on the game, but didn't post.

Tomorrow's game will be very close. Arsenal will not lose again just because they got more goals at home just like last year. This game will be a very defensive game but I think Bayern can pull it off. Maybe I also take the under.

I also regret my Napoli bet a bit. Napoli never was very encouraged playing EL and Swansea will give everything. I think the odds mirror the possibility for a win. So I wouldn't suggest to tail me with this bet.
Also very excited for the Lyon game. Figured out this is just a huge gamble.

19.2. FC Bayern Munich	2.5 to win 2.193
20.2. Napoli	2.5 to win 4.1
20.2. Lyon	2 to win 2.98

barca12 · 02-18-14, 06:57 PM

Europa League is by far toughest in soccer to hit. Didn't Swansea beat Valencia away, and than lost to them at home? I try to stay away but I always end up putting 5-10$ on 6-7 team parlay in Europa League

barca12 · 02-18-14, 06:58 PM

And GL with your picks I will follow this thread and tail occasionally when Im too lasy to find my own picks

Akatana · 02-18-14, 07:47 PM

I dont think napoli will penetrate up. Benitez has a big record to break and silverware for Napoli.

I Personally took them to qualify and double chance in 2 doubles. So I'm a bit safer but besides the inconsistency I don't think Swansea at this point will be able to beat Napoli. This game everyone will see how Swansea will be outclassed by napoli. There is value here. Swansea at its best now is nothing more than a team who is very average and in a huge develop/recovery process. Don't think they can keep up with Napolis geniuses.

Akatana · 02-18-14, 07:51 PM

I dont think napoli will penetrate up. Benitez has a big record to break and silverware for Napoli.

I Personally took them to qualify and double chance in 2 doubles. So I'm a bit safer but besides the inconsistency I don't think Swansea at this point will be able to beat Napoli. This game everyone will see how Swansea will be outclassed by napoli. There is value here. Swansea at its best now is nothing more than a team who is very average and in a huge develop/recovery process. Don't think they can keep up with Napolis geniuses. It's going to take more than that to beat Napoli.

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 08:01 PM

Yes it is kinda hard. I think thats because it is harder to estimate the form of these teams compared to the top teams. Form and confidence is everything in football and it plays an even bigger role with teams that aren't world class as they can really excel in one game and totally suck in the next. There is less continuity with these teams.

Actually I do think EL gets a little easier once it gets to the quarterfinals, as you often get odds that don't match my predicted winning possibilities by 15%+ just because it is a tournament. Odds actually should vary more/vary less (depending on the game). Also I don't like parlays as you lose more to the house, the more plays you parlay.

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 08:10 PM

I also think that Swansea isn't on the same level as Napoli, but I do think that they are capable of a lucky punch and playing with 10 men in defense. But maybe I'm still in shock from the last years. Lost a lot of money on them when they were really unmotivated. Hope Benitez is eager enough to pull this off tomorrow.

BOL to you guys

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 08:33 PM

adding:

26.2. Chelsea

2 to win 1.905

I know it's early and maybe they'll lose or draw against Everton on the weekend and the odds get better, but I just expect Mourinho to win both games easily and therefore see now as the best time to make this bet

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 08:45 PM

adding:

20.2. Tottenham Hotspurs +0

2 to win 1.835

Nastrovje · 02-18-14, 09:30 PM

19.2. FC Bayern Munich	2.5 to win 2.193
20.2. Napoli	2.5 to win 4.1
20.2. Lyon	2 to win 2.98
20.2. Tottenham Hotspur +0	2 to win 1.835

And here my plays for the weekend. I may or may not add 2-3 more

21.2. Levante +0.5	2.5 to win 2.119
22.2. Augsburg	1.5 to win 2.025
22.2. Hertha BSC +0	2 to win 2.08
23.2. Hellas Verona +0	2 to win 2.44

26.2. Chelsea

2 to win 1.905

Nastrovje · 02-19-14, 06:14 PM

19.2. FC Bayern Munich

2.5 to win 2.193

1-0, +2.193U
YTD: 6-1-7, +0.732U

Nice game for most of the time, again the unfortunate double penalty and solid win in the end. Also I finally recovered from my losing "streak"

Very excited for tomorrow's games.
BOL

Nastrovje · 02-20-14, 09:02 AM

adding:
1U more on Tottenham

20.2. Tottenham Hotspur +0

1 to win 1.2

Nastrovje · 02-21-14, 05:51 PM

20.2. Napoli	2.5 to win 4.1
20.2. Lyon	2 to win 2.98
20.2. Tottenham Hotspur +0	2 to win 1.835

20.2. Tottenham Hotspur +0

1 to win 1.2

21.2. Levante +0.5

2.5 to win 2.119

1-3, -5.381U
YTD: 7-1-10, -4.649U

Goddammit. Went 3-0 in CL and 0-3 in EL.
Don't have much to say about EL. Lyon without a single first team player (wtf) still somehow managed to get a draw. Not enough for me. Spurs didn't start a few players too and just looked awful in defense and thanks to Soldado didn't make one themselves. But opposed to Lyon, I think they really tried but just weren't good enough.

So that Lyon rested all of their players for the game against Lille and the odds just get better and better I'll add:

23.2. Lyon +0

2 to win 3.6

maybe I even drop more on them

Nastrovje · 02-22-14, 12:00 PM

22.2. Augsburg	1.5 to win 2.025
22.2. Hertha BSC +0	2 to win 2.08

2-0, +4.105U
YTD: 9-1-10, -0.544U

Nastrovje · 02-23-14, 07:29 PM

23.2. Hellas Verona +0

2 to win 2.44

23.2. Lyon +0

2 to win 3.6

1-1-0, +2.44U
YTD: 10-2-10, +1.896U

upcoming plays tomorrow or the day after

Nastrovje · 02-23-14, 09:00 PM

adding:

27.2. Swansea +1	2 to win 2.4
27.2. Porto +0	2 to win 1.613
27.2. Real Betis +0.5	1.5 to win 1.89

and my CL play, already posted on 19.2.

26.2. Chelsea

2 to win 1.905

Nastrovje · 02-25-14, 01:31 PM

and here are my plays for the weekend. unfortunately i have to bet now, cause i'll probably have no internet access the next few days

1 or 2 lines will get a little better but I see a lot of value in 2 of the games

1.3. Toulouse +0	2 to win 2.32
1.3. Celta Vigo +0	1.5 to win 1.875
2.3. Wolfsburg +0	3 to win 2.941
2.3. Real Sociedad +0.5	3.5 to win 3.365

BOL to you guys

Nastrovje · 02-28-14, 03:54 AM

adding:

1.3. SV Ried +0

2 to win 3.06

Nastrovje · 02-28-14, 03:58 AM

27.2. Swansea +1	2 to win 2.4
27.2. Porto +0	2 to win 1.613
27.2. Real Betis +0.5	1.5 to win 1.89

26.2. Chelsea

2 to win 1.905

1-1-2, -2.11U
YTD: 11-3-12, -0.214U

Nastrovje · 03-01-14, 08:34 PM

1.3. Toulouse +0	2 to win 2.32
1.3. Celta Vigo +0	1.5 to win 1.875

1.3. SV Ried +0

2 to win 3.06

1-1-1, +0.82U
YTD: 12-4-13, +0.606U

kinda don't get away from breakeven right now. Hope this changes tomorrow

tomorrow:

2.3. Wolfsburg +0	3 to win 2.941
2.3. Real Sociedad +0.5	3.5 to win 3.365

Nastrovje · 03-02-14, 03:42 AM

adding:

2.3. Basel

1 to win 1.2

Nastrovje · 03-02-14, 04:13 AM

adding:

2.3. Real Madrid

1.5 to win 1.935

Nastrovje · 03-03-14, 05:06 AM

Nastrovje · 03-07-14, 03:13 PM

too tired writing it up. don't say how many zeros follow. 10xxxxx = 1u