Todorinko's soccer plays

[todorinko]

Campeonato Paulista

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Bragantino SP-Sao Paulo SP

pick: Sao Paulo -0.75
odds: -127 (1.79)
bookie: 188bet
stake: 7/10

I think Sao Paulo are team with bigger quality in all aspects, while Bragantino have lower standarts and they are midtable team from Serie B. For this game they come without 5 important players for team: Leandro Santos, Hernany, Elias, Neto and Diguinho. Add to this 3 other players have questionable form and for sure Sao Paulo are logical favorite against Bragantino (even if they make some rotations).

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[todorinko]

Campeonato Paulista

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Oeste SP-Penapolense

pick: Oeste -0.75
odds: + 127 (2.28)
bookie: pinnacle
stake: 5/10

Oeste manage to stay in Serie B for next season and have quality of midtable team from this divison. 42 % home wins for them, but against team with lower quality chance for win is bigger. If we compare other factors like lower standart of away team, some changes in squad and a new coach, we can expect easy home win. Previous game between both teams end with score 2:0 for Oeste at this stadium. I think today we can see similar result, thats why will take bigger spread -0.75 with odds +120 (2.20+)

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[todorinko]

Campeonato Gaucho

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Juventude - Sao Paulo RS

pick: Juventude
odds: -200 (1.50)
bookies: bet365, vetfred, sportingbet, bwin, unibet, youwin
stake: 10/10

Juventude are team with big traditions in brasilian football. Team reach some level of good quality and home factor is another indication in their favor. From other side guests come with big troubles - president left team and some players follow him. Such inside problems should help for such pick in favor of hosts.

fair odds 1.34

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[todorinko]

Campeonato Carioca

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Flamengo RJ - Duque de Caxias

pick: Flamengo -1.25
odds: - 128 (1.78)
bookie: IBC
stake: 8/10

Flamengo will put all important players in this game against team with lower quality, bad current form and without stable investments last months. IMO class difference is too big in such game, where visitors should have problems at Maracana stadium. I think worst case will be if Flamengo win with 1 goal margine, so will take spread -1.25.

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[todorinko]

Italy - Seria A

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Cagliari - Milan

pick: Milan -0.25
odds: 1.77
bookie: Pinnacle
stake: 8/10

Milan makes poor season, but i think now its' time for some up-trend in their favor. New coach effect, new good transfer (Esien) and 4 players back to play in this visit - Montolivo, Muntari, Pazzini and Abate. Still Milan have few missings, but i think they are better team with bigger motivation to win such game. They comes after difficult win against Verona and i cant imagine they will repeat similar mistake like game with Sassuolo (lead with 2 goals -> FT = lose). Hosts with troubles in scorring and add to this they have missings in their offense, so i cant see how they will manage to win such game.

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