TRD Premier League

[therealdealau]

I'm a 20 year Man United fan, been following the premier league for a long time and have been wagering on it for quite a few years now. I'm European but live in Australia, one side of my family is English - all from Manchester, hence why I have been following the Red Devils since a kid.

Tracking my plays here, would love to get a discussion going about interesting angles/games.

Good luck to all

[therealdealau]

25/6
Man City HT/FT $2.05 - 1 unit
Man City ML/Over 2.5 Double $2.05 - 1 unit

[bosigga]

I like it. On Man City as well, they really should win this one

[therealdealau]

I like it. On Man City as well, they really should win this one

Wow, what a disaster game for City.

[therealdealau]

Record Update

0-2 -2 Units

[therealdealau]

Leans for this week, lets get a discussion going.

Everton ML vs Cardiff
This is a great situational play in my opinion for a number of reasons. Cardiff defied the odds and defeated City in their home opener however I believe the team was riding on adrenaline and excitement, this is the second home game now and although they will be just as pumped up for this game I think Everton can take the sting out of it and grind Cardiff down. Everton had a very average performance last week and will be looking for their first win of the season. Everton will be much sharper than City were and offer a lot more devastating runs from their back line, Coleman and Baines are deadly and will be at the forefront of these runs.

Liverpool/Manchester United Both Teams to Score
I think this wager really is self explanatory, Liverpool have looked nice this season and Sturridge has proved to be a valuable asset to the side. Although the new Liverpool keeper has yet to concede he has not played against a premier attacking side like United. I believe both teams will score in this blockbuster match.

[vasilli07]

I really like Liverpool this weekend. Good value with pk @ 1.85. With the game at Anfield and the likes of Sturridge and Coutinho on form, I like their chances.

As a Spurs fan, I may also make a small play on Spurs pk @ 2.80. Ramsey, Carloza and Arteta won't be able to deal with our physical midfield trio of Capoue, Dembele and Paulinho. And we also got the new wonderboy Andros Townsend.

[therealdealau]

I really like Liverpool this weekend. Good value with pk @ 1.85. With the game at Anfield and the likes of Sturridge and Coutinho on form, I like their chances.

As a Spurs fan, I may also make a small play on Spurs pk @ 2.80. Ramsey, Carloza and Arteta won't be able to deal with our physical midfield trio of Capoue, Dembele and Paulinho. And we also got the new wonderboy Andros Townsend.

I do think Liverpool looks like some nice value, I prefer the both teams to score though - United can get some BS wins.

I actually like the Spurs play, revenge for last season as well could be a nice angle. Also isn't Bale returning?

[innn]

liverpool is a so bad pick. though I agree with both to score. It's due
SPurs as well.

[vasilli07]

I actually like the Spurs play, revenge for last season as well could be a nice angle. Also isn't Bale returning?

He is on his way to Real Madrid. Even he stays, he won't be match fit. But who needs Bale when we have Townsend now?

[therealdealau]

He is on his way to Real Madrid. Even he stays, he won't be match fit. But who needs Bale when we have Townsend now?

damn, you dont think he will be match fit? I just transferred him into my fantasy team

[therealdealau]

liverpool is a so bad pick. though I agree with both to score. It's due
SPurs as well.

ya i like Spurs for sure

[therealdealau]

Glad i didn't following my early post, was busy all weekend and didn't wager but wow some of the results and low scoring games were tough to read...

Will definitely be posting plays this week as I see a lot of value, here are my early leans - hopefully some discussion ensues

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace

Seriously good bounce back spot for United after a disappointing game against Liverpool. I watched the game and United proved to have control of the game and the ball in many periods but were just predictable and lacked some creativity and play-making. I believe United will be far too strong for Crystal Palace and should run them out of Old Trafford, a fortress and tough ground for any team let alone a newly appointed team to win at. I think the value in this game is Man U/Man U half time full time.

Aston Villa v Newcastle

Villa are coming back after a week off at the premier league and will be raring to go, Villa's first three games into the premier league was the hardest draw of any team facing Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. Only 1 goal losses to Liverpool and Chelsea (unlucky not to get points against Chelsea) and an impressive first round win over Arsenal, Villa will be brimming with confidence and at the peak of this confidence is Benteke. Against a defense that is not as impressive as some of the competition that Villa has faced thus far I believe that they can record their first win at Villa Park for the season.

[therealdealau]

Week 4
Aston Villa ML $2.05 - 1x
Man City ML $1.60 - 2.5x
Arsenal ML $1.65 - 2.5x
Man City/Tottenham ML $2.30 - 1x
Man City/Tottenham/Arsenal ML $3.80 - 1x
Man City/Tottenham/Arsenal/Man U ML $4.60 - 0.5x

[therealdealau]

Week 4
Aston Villa ML $2.05 - 1x
Man City ML $1.60 - 2.5x
Arsenal ML $1.65 - 2.5x
Man City/Tottenham ML $2.30 - 1x
Man City/Tottenham/Arsenal ML $3.80 - 1x
Man City/Tottenham/Arsenal/Man U ML $4.60 - 0.5x

I should have made Arsenal the staple team

-3.5 units

[therealdealau]

WEEK 5
Tottenham ML $1.84 - 2.5x
Swansea ML $2.25 - 1.5x
Everton ML $2.30 - 1.5x
Chelsea ML/Aresnal ML $1.70 - 3.5x
Chelsea ML/Aresnal ML/Liverpool ML $2.71 - 1x
Chelsea by 2+ Goals $1.80 - 1x
Aresnal by 2+ Goals $1.95 - 1x

Again I'm going really heavy and punting on favourites, possibly could get buried twice in a row but time will tell.

Tottenham v Cardiff - Tottenham are getting great odds here, although Cardiff has been a difficult place for teams so far to crack it still is early in the competition and their two home games were against teams that have had issues with their forward line and forward structures. This is not the case with Tottenham who have bolstered their roster since the departure of Bale with some incredible talent, namely Lamela and Eriksen. If anyone watched the Norwich game last week they know the dangers Eriksen will give to the Cardiff defense - I believe these two players will be the creative difference in allowing Tottenham to get a win here. On the otherside of the pitch, Spurs have been a defensive powerhouse only conceding one goal so far this season.

Crystal Palace v Swansea - After a slow start against some of the leagues best, Swansea have began to show signs of their potential with a draw against Liverpool and an emphatic win away in the Europa League. Michu who has been quiet early has had his first taste for goal and will be a menace for Crystal Palace to defend. With the introduction of Bony and the emergence of Shevley the Swansea side have no lack of creativity going forward. Palace will play hard at home however I believe that with their instilled offensive confidence they will grind an away win here.

West Ham United v Everton -West Ham United are struggling, they have significant key injuries combined with the inability to score. They are have not scored a goal in 3 weeks and will find it hard to get into the back of the net against Everton this week. A consistent defensive outfit, Everton offers a lot of danger to most teams as they have significant counter attacking ability in Baines and more recently Coleman combined with their efficient midfield but what was always missing was a consistent finisher. After signing Lukaku, Everton have erased this problem and this will be his first start for the Everton side. I believe Everton will offer too many dangers for West Ham to deal with both defensively and in the attacking side of the game, I believe Lukaku will be a huge difference maker and will want to start his first game off with a bang.

[therealdealau]

WEEK 5
Tottenham ML $1.84 - 2.5x
Swansea ML $2.25 - 1.5x
Everton ML $2.30 - 1.5x
Chelsea ML/Aresnal ML $1.70 - 3.5x
Chelsea ML/Aresnal ML/Liverpool ML $2.71 - 1x
Chelsea by 2+ Goals $1.80 - 1x
Aresnal by 2+ Goals $1.95 - 1x

Huge week for me finally getting into my groove! Swansea went as expected with Michu slotting an early goal and the Swans never looking back. Everton had a rough time against a keen West Ham, however Lukaku got the finishing blow. Cardiff were again impressive defensively but once Lamela was subbed on he proved to be a difference maker, assisting the goal. Arsenal are really looking like an offensive jugganeut on the back of Ozil, the guy is an absolute class act.

6-1 +9.125 Units

Record 6-7 6-7 +3.63 Units

[oldscho0led]

Huge week for me finally getting into my groove! Swansea went as expected with Michu slotting an early goal and the Swans never looking back. Everton had a rough time against a keen West Ham, however Lukaku got the finishing blow. Cardiff were again impressive defensively but once Lamela was subbed on he proved to be a difference maker, assisting the goal. Arsenal are really looking like an offensive jugganeut on the back of Ozil, the guy is an absolute class act.

6-1 +9.125 Units

Record 6-7 6-7 +3.63 Units

What a card.

[therealdealau]

What a card.

Thanks mate! Really needed it as I started horribly.

[therealdealau]

Week 6

Finally getting some wins has given me more confidence in my analysis and picks, here are my random thoughts on the interesting games this week...

Aston Villa vs Man City

Man City had a painful start to the season however they are starting to find their groove and get familiar with each other again, I think the extra league cup and champions league matches have helped a few teams get more game time under their belt and develop. Man City have started to look more like their old selves with a demolition of their cross town rivals Man U, destroyed them 4-1 in a clinical display of precise attacking. Aston Villa are falling hard, with their star goal sneak Benteke out for some weeks their ability to push the City defense is going to be limited. This is a must win game for City who can consolidate their top 4 spot on the ladder, David Silva may return however Yaya Toure has been a consistent gem for City - with his free kicks proving to be a hassle for any keeper.

Man U vs WBA

Perfect bounce back game for United at Old Trafford, with RVP most likely out of contention we will see Rooney headline the main attacking threat for the Devils. After a disappointing performance against Man City, United will be looking to get back to basics and play a consistent, smooth style of football and get the points. Valencia has bounced back this season and has looked dangerous, I believe his pace with prove difficult for WBA - whom have had a very average display of ability so far in the EPL. I expect Moyes to go with Welbeck up front with the Dutchman out of action - I will be interested to see if Nani or Kagawa get some decent minutes as they are some unorthodox creativity that United need in attack. I believe United with have all the ball possession and create many opportunities through runs from Evra off the rebound, Valencia and Young streaking through the pitch combined with Rooney menacing keepers with his free kicks.

Tottenham v Chelsea

Two top sides coming together here for what is expected to be a great game with many scoring opportunities. Tottenham have put together a great squad with many options throughout the midfield and a rock hard defense that has only conceded 1 goal and returned 4 clean sheets - the most impressive defensive team so far in the EPL. However their wins are against teams that have lacked fire power, and their loss was to Aresnal, a game in which the Spurs severely struggled. I believe the Tottenham defense will be pushed in this game against the Blues, with Oscar leading the way as Mourinho's go to guy. Conversely Chelsea have also proven to have a strong defense, conceding only 2 goals - with this in mind I believe this game will have plenty of action and plenty of opportunity for teams to put scores on the board. I believe this game is going to be extremely interesting as both sides have new squads and have a different approach to attack to the previous season. I really like both teams to score and I also am giving a slight edge to Chelsea.

[therealdealau]

Week 6

Finally getting some wins has given me more confidence in my analysis and picks, here are my random thoughts on the interesting games this week...

Aston Villa vs Man City

Man City had a painful start to the season however they are starting to find their groove and get familiar with each other again, I think the extra league cup and champions league matches have helped a few teams get more game time under their belt and develop. Man City have started to look more like their old selves with a demolition of their cross town rivals Man U, destroyed them 4-1 in a clinical display of precise attacking. Aston Villa are falling hard, with their star goal sneak Benteke out for some weeks their ability to push the City defense is going to be limited. This is a must win game for City who can consolidate their top 4 spot on the ladder, David Silva may return however Yaya Toure has been a consistent gem for City - with his free kicks proving to be a hassle for any keeper.

Man U vs WBA

Perfect bounce back game for United at Old Trafford, with RVP most likely out of contention we will see Rooney headline the main attacking threat for the Devils. After a disappointing performance against Man City, United will be looking to get back to basics and play a consistent, smooth style of football and get the points. Valencia has bounced back this season and has looked dangerous, I believe his pace with prove difficult for WBA - whom have had a very average display of ability so far in the EPL. I expect Moyes to go with Welbeck up front with the Dutchman out of action - I will be interested to see if Nani or Kagawa get some decent minutes as they are some unorthodox creativity that United need in attack. I believe United with have all the ball possession and create many opportunities through runs from Evra off the rebound, Valencia and Young streaking through the pitch combined with Rooney menacing keepers with his free kicks.

Tottenham v Chelsea

Two top sides coming together here for what is expected to be a great game with many scoring opportunities. Tottenham have put together a great squad with many options throughout the midfield and a rock hard defense that has only conceded 1 goal and returned 4 clean sheets - the most impressive defensive team so far in the EPL. However their wins are against teams that have lacked fire power, and their loss was to Aresnal, a game in which the Spurs severely struggled. I believe the Tottenham defense will be pushed in this game against the Blues, with Oscar leading the way as Mourinho's go to guy. Conversely Chelsea have also proven to have a strong defense, conceding only 2 goals - with this in mind I believe this game will have plenty of action and plenty of opportunity for teams to put scores on the board. I believe this game is going to be extremely interesting as both sides have new squads and have a different approach to attack to the previous season. I really like both teams to score and I also am giving a slight edge to Chelsea.

Man City ML/Man U ML $1.96 - 4x
Man City by 2+ Goals $2.35 - 1x
Man United by 2+ Goals $1.87 - 1x
Hull City ML $2.30 - 1x

[steevio_uk]

As a slight word of caution, West Ham's early season difficulties in scoring and winning have been very much down to the loss of Andy Carroll and Modibo Maiga's struggle to fill the role of the lone front man. The whole shape of the front line has been an issue.

Recently though, Maiga has been improving; his movement, winning headers, playing the role and West Ham have also got Mladen Petric in to play the role. With that, the whole team's dynamic has improved.

We've looked a lot more of a threat going forward, with the same defensive resilience.
We've scored 5 in our last 2 games (albeit 1 game against a second string Cardiff) and we have only conceded 1 goal from open play.
(In our last game, we should have held on to beat Everton and conceded 2 direct free kicks and a later header when down to 10 men).

There's also the very, very exciting Ravel Morrison. He's finding good form and many of you guys will start to hear a LOT of him this coming season...

I wouldn't necessarily bet against the 1X or suggest that the home win is a bad pick at all, but it's just worth noting that West Ham aren't quite the team that the form/statistics suggest they are.

I'm excited about this game and off the top of my head, may go on the BTTS.

GL

(Well, technically, I don't wish GL... I want you to fail on this pick miserably!!)

[therealdealau]

As a slight word of caution, West Ham's early season difficulties in scoring and winning have been very much down to the loss of Andy Carroll and Modibo Maiga's struggle to fill the role of the lone front man. The whole shape of the front line has been an issue.

Recently though, Maiga has been improving; his movement, winning headers, playing the role and West Ham have also got Mladen Petric in to play the role. With that, the whole team's dynamic has improved.

We've looked a lot more of a threat going forward, with the same defensive resilience.
We've scored 5 in our last 2 games (albeit 1 game against a second string Cardiff) and we have only conceded 1 goal from open play.
(In our last game, we should have held on to beat Everton and conceded 2 direct free kicks and a later header when down to 10 men).

There's also the very, very exciting Ravel Morrison. He's finding good form and many of you guys will start to hear a LOT of him this coming season...

I wouldn't necessarily bet against the 1X or suggest that the home win is a bad pick at all, but it's just worth noting that West Ham aren't quite the team that the form/statistics suggest they are.

I'm excited about this game and off the top of my head, may go on the BTTS.

GL

(Well, technically, I don't wish GL... I want you to fail on this pick miserably!!)

Hey mate, appreciate the insight into The Hammers, I must say I watch plenty EPL but the Everton/WH game was the only time I've watched a full 90 minute viewing of them. They did get extremely unlucky in that match, Leighton Baines was a beast but it should have been a draw minimum.

I think Hull have played quite well in the EPL so far, I've been really impressed with Brady - the main reason I took this play is because they are playing at home and West Ham so far this season have looked very average away from Upton Park.

[therealdealau]

Week 7

Man City/Liverpool ML $2.04 4x
Cardiff ML $2.40 1x

[therealdealau]

Chelsea ML $1.67 2.5x
Arsenal ML $1.80 2x

[Dyl]

Tottenham will beat West Ham today. 100% guaranteed. As a West Ham fan I know.

Money on 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 to Tottenham.

[lucasdawg]

how secure is chelsea

[lucasdawg]

i agree with the spurz to win at home

[Pan43]

Chelsea is playing terrible lately, they better shape up real soon until is too late. I went hard on Tottenham and CHelsea today

[lucasdawg]

yeah i have noticed the chelseas form, thats why i am unsure of an away win, norwich was able to get an away win off stoke last week, they arent a run over team. what made you consider chelsea?

[Dyl]

Chelsea won't lose to Norwich, Spurs will win comfortably, Arsenal are a slight risk but in great form.

Treble of Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs -1 @ 5/1 is my play.

Chelsea 1-0 up after 3 minutes. Nice.

[lucasdawg]

fuark it started already! thought it wasnt for another hourrrr

[therealdealau]

Record

9-12 +3.12

[therealdealau]

Week 8

Liverpool ML $1.85 1.5x
Arsenal ML/Chelsea ML/Everton $2.32 2x
Swansea ML $1.60 2.5x
Everton -1 $2.25 1x

[therealdealau]

Tottenham ML $1.96 1.5x