Italian Football All-Season 2013/2014 by TSA

[TheSportsAnalyst]

LOL, the last two games I picked so far in Serie B came out as two losses and two coaches gone.

2013/2014 season so far (including putrid Coppa Italia)

7W - 5L - 2P (58.33%)
+2.60u (+10.83%)

[Vaughany]

I just had Varese PK and Novara PK in a parlay. Varese got the winner despite having 10 men! So strong at home and Pavoletti is on fire!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Lanciano - Bari

Saturday, September 28th, 2013 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Lanciano 0 (Asian Handicap-Full Time Excluding Overtime) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.03 Bookmaker: Dafabet Second straight week I'm playing against Bari and I apologize with friends over there but I'm still not convinced by this squad. Main reason for this pick, anyway, is the extraordinary good looking form of Lanciano, who's always one of my favourite team for betting purpose as they're constantly underrated by the bookies (like at the start of last season). So far they've stopped Brescia (one of the best team in the league) on the road and Reggina at home, got a win in Cesena (actually 2nd in the standings) and against Avellino (a playoff team), a good points against Latina and finally they've beaten Juve Stabia on the road and playing on their artificial pitch! It makes 3 wins, 3 draws and no losses after 6 games which is huge for a team built to remain in Serie B next year. Lanciano have the best defense in the whole Serie B (just three goal scored) and Bari doesn't have such a powerful offense so I think they should at least get an easy draw but having many more chances of 'Galletti' of getting three points. Surprisingly they've opened at 0 @2.05 on Dafabet (immediately pounded to 1.98) and the odds given still doesn't make any sense to me. Both are defense first teams so the with the draw-no-bet option available at a reasonable price it's a no brainer to me.

[Vaughany]

guess it's just because they lost 3-0 at home to Bari at home last season, and Bari's recent good run

[i97g]

........

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Odds already @1.91 on SBO, I wasn't the only one surprised by the opening 2.05

Bari was a home dog just yesterday, making them fav at a level ball in a game played on the road just 4 days later is a total non-sense, especially because Lanciano is undefeated yet.

@Vaughany: H2H in soccer are way overrated imho (at least in Italy), especially in lower divisions teams change coaches and 5/6 starters each year so comparing teams from season to season is actually meaningless.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Lanciano - Bari 1-0


Cheers!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Novara - Virtus Lanciano

Tomorrow, 14:59 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Home -0.75 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.02 Bookmaker: PINNACLE Not a big fan of solid favs but I do not understand these odds: one week ago Lanciano was an even odds (2.03) draw no bet pick at home against Bari (which isn't the most powerful team in Serie B to be honest) and now, just seven days later, they're offered at +0.5 paying almost the same price but this time Lanciano is on the road and against Novara which is widely considered one of the top 4 behind Palermo along with Siena, Empoli and Varese, all clear contenders for a Serie A spot in 2014. Just number-crunching but Novara usually wins on average 50% of their home matches and they started this season with 7 points out of 9 collected at 'Silvio Piola' so it's probably enough to explain why is so hard not backing them here. Lanciano heavily rely on their defense (best in the league), having scored just 5 goals in 7 matches, but it won't be easy to contain such a powerful offense like Novara one. I like piemontesi because they're a really solid team with a succesful and straightforward managing personnel, which created a chemistry very powerful (and was the starting point for their back to back promotions from Serie C2 a few years ago). I do not expect a lot of goals and probably the first half could also end 0-0 or 1-0 but I like the chances of home team here, especially in a very particular occasion like this one: in fact on Saturday Novara and Lazio will ideally celebrate Silvio Piola 100 years, giving honours with special shirts and ceremonies to probably the greatest forward of italian football, and a lot of people will attend the game. Novara need a win because they weren't so effective on the road so far and this could be the perfect occasion to get it one and to kick off 'Piola 100 years' celebration in very good fashion.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Padova - Varese

Today, 20:29 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Home 0 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.83 Bookmaker: PINNACLE Tonight Bortolo Mutti, new coach of Padova, will make his debut on bench and since his arrival he bring just positives to the club and he started immediately with some days of private training camp to establish quickly his philosophy on the field. Biancoscudati are dead last in Serie B with just 1 point collected despite the team was built to get a playoff spot. Quality is there but they totally disappointed so far and a change of pace was (and is still) needed. Someone, including Varese coach Sottili, consider this match like the real start of Padova 2013/2014 season, so it won't be a so obvious match like current standings could suggest. Varese is red hot at the moment and they're undefeated since the opener so I rate this matchup as a really interesting one and the odds dropping for Padova draw-no-bet (opened at 2.00, already in the 1.80 range) are more than a clear sign of support and credit this team is getting under a new regime. Mutti was a very succesful coach at Serie B mid-table level during late '90s and got his shots in Serie A at the beginning of the new century but he never lived up to the expectations. Padova is probably the best fit for him since years: medium town with no real pressure of being promoted at the moment due to the awful standings position and more than 80% of the season (including january transfer window) ahead of him. With almost all the roster fully healthy and at his disposal I think he can really do something good. Despite I see a draw as a very likely outcome and the DNB option wouldn't give me anything in that occasion I see Varese % of winning a lot lower than Padova ones.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Padova - Varese 3-2

Cheers!

[Vaughany]

nice hit!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Lecce - SS Barletta Calcio

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: SS Barletta Calcio +1 (Asian Handicap-Full Time Excluding Overtime) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.14 Bookmaker: 12BET I could be totally wrong of course but I believe Lecce problems were way over former coach and I mostly do not like at all coaching comebacks like Lerda's one. Yes, there's a huge difference in class between salentini and Barletta but the current price for the road team do not really reflect what we saw in these first 5 matches of the season when Lecce was defeated 5/5 conceding on avg. 2.5 goals/game. On the opposite side Barletta so far faced Frosinone and Salernitana (two big favs along with Lecce and Perugia), solid squads like Pisa and Ascoli (playoff contender) and the surprising Prato (still unbeaten): they managed to get just 1 point in 5 games but they still have to play against a real bottom-table team and I'm sure they'll turn the corner sooner or later. One thing I noticed during these weeks is they conceded just 6 goals in 5 matches which is pretty unusual for a backmarker in the standings: they've problem on offense (still scoreless) but they were able to contain opponents pretty well so far, especially on the road which is probably explained by the lower pressure they get on the field. Lerda (Lecce coach) is still making experiments on his team and the first ones (last week against Perugia) didn't work out very well, instead Barletta got a good boost of confidence after a midweek success in League Cup and they could translate it on the field today. Unfortunately new transfer Zigon (striker), who could have been a great addition to Barletta offense, couldn't play yet and Barletta chances to win are very low if they can't score but I do not see Lecce blowing them away as these odds might suggest. Huge value with a 2.14 payout for the +1 in my opinion.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Lecce - Barletta 0-0


Leagues Summary:

Serie B
6W - 3L -1P (66.67% SR) +4.92u (+27.33% Yield)
Lega Pro 1 Div
4W - 1.5L -0.5P (72.73% SR) +4.68u (+42.55% Yield)
LEAGUE GAMES TOTAL
10W - 4.5L - 1.5P (68.97% SR) +9.60u (33.10% Yield)


Cheers!

[andy888888]

Good stuff, been put off betting on Italian football for a while especially since sassuolo can't even beat a 10 man parma team ffs

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Lanciano-Ternana

Sunday, October 13th, 2013 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 2 (+0.25 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.96 Bookmaker: SBOBET As you might remember I backed Lanciano a couple of times earlier in the season but this is the second straight week I found myself against them. I'm reading a lot of comparisons between Lanciano and Sassuolo 2012/2013 (which finally get promoted to Serie A) but in my modest opinion I see many differences in these two teams. First of all Rome wasn't built in a day and Sassuolo too: it took five years to neroverdi (which had money and top facilities) to gain that promotion from Serie B and they started growing as a respectable club many years back in C2; Lanciano is just in their second season in Serie B and they came off an awful 18° place in 2012/2013. Second, even if it's true that big names don't make a team better by themselves it's also waterproof that in past years no one reached promotion to Serie A without a proper budget and Lanciano don't have it at the moment. Third, every beautiful story finally comes to an end and usually it's a brutal end. If you take a look at Lanciano recent games tapes you could easily notice a surprising trend: Lanciano never make all the game, having possession for just 45% of the time on avg., never play so better than opponents nor shoot much more than rivals. They win because 1. they're incredibly good on defending their net (just three goals conceeded in 8 games) and their Goals/SoG strike rate is just impressive. It's like a well tested but low budget car, it works perfectly until something goes wrong. And I think that something could happen next saturday. Nonetheless I actually like a lot Ternana (solid possession of the ball, very good defense, pretty accurate passing game) and I'm pretty sure they deserved more points than what they got in this early part of the season. I also have a gut feeling that this game could end in a really boring 0-0 because of the ineptitude of both offenses (Ternana had some issues on creating chances lately). So at current price value for me relies on the Ternana side, a team which is third-last in the standings but which also offered great performances on the road so far this season.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Perugia-Pisa

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 1 (-0.25 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.86 Bookmaker: SBOBET As usual I waited until SBO offered at least a 556€ max bet for Lega Pro matches before making this one official but I liked these odds since the price came out last Thursday. Perugia is a hell of a team to face at home, where they made 2/2 this season and where they won 66.67% of matches last season, so despite I admit 'Grifo' didn't have a totally great start of the season compared to the expectations I can't fully understand why bookies are rating Perugia so poor at home. With Lecce struggling at the bottom of the table Perugia currently is the main favourite to win the division, especially because they were built to improve their last season second place. Coach Camplone (who's suspended for this match) was brought back in town after Lucarelli resigned last summer and he's lining up the team with his favourite 4-3-3 which actually shown some issues of the team, especially on defense, but I'm counting on revenge-mode for Perugia as they were defeated by Pisa in last season playoff semifinal, not being able to win at home after a 1-2 loss in Toscana. Despite missings of starting keeper Koprivec and defender Scognamiglio I like Perugia chances of win and can't resist placing a bet here opting for the juicy -0.25 just in case of a draw which is still possible because Pisa is a very respectable team. In addition to this I also think coaches (at least In Italy) have a better vision of the game (and consequently a better management of the team) when they're suspended and they are forced to watch the game from the stands, like some offense/defense coordinators do in american football, so I'm expecting a good lead by Camplone today.

[Vaughany]

Fabio Caserta's brother died last night in a car accident, Juve Stabia are going to be wearing black arm-bands today. WOnder how that will effect them, maybe they'll raise their game

[Vaughany]

Perugia-Pisa

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 1 (-0.25 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.86 Bookmaker: SBOBET As usual I waited until SBO offered at least a 556€ max bet for Lega Pro matches before making this one official but I liked these odds since the price came out last Thursday. Perugia is a hell of a team to face at home, where they made 2/2 this season and where they won 66.67% of matches last season, so despite I admit 'Grifo' didn't have a totally great start of the season compared to the expectations I can't fully understand why bookies are rating Perugia so poor at home. With Lecce struggling at the bottom of the table Perugia currently is the main favourite to win the division, especially because they were built to improve their last season second place. Coach Camplone (who's suspended for this match) was brought back in town after Lucarelli resigned last summer and he's lining up the team with his favourite 4-3-3 which actually shown some issues of the team, especially on defense, but I'm counting on revenge-mode for Perugia as they were defeated by Pisa in last season playoff semifinal, not being able to win at home after a 1-2 loss in Toscana. Despite missings of starting keeper Koprivec and defender Scognamiglio I like Perugia chances of win and can't resist placing a bet here opting for the juicy -0.25 just in case of a draw which is still possible because Pisa is a very respectable team. In addition to this I also think coaches (at least In Italy) have a better vision of the game (and consequently a better management of the team) when they're suspended and they are forced to watch the game from the stands, like some offense/defense coordinators do in american football, so I'm expecting a good lead by Camplone today.

Really shocked to see how badly Lecce are doing despite having likes of Miccoli, Bogliacino, Ferreira Pinto, and Amodio

[BigBurk]

Ternana up 0-1. That home line was fishy from the get go. Good choice.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Modena - Lanciano

Friday, November 01st, 2013 19:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Modena -0.25 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.82 Bookmaker: Dafabet I'm back after a couple of week of absence due to the lack of opportunities (in my opinion of course) with one very interesting game in the 12. matchday of Serie B. Both teams have extremely consistent credit entering this match: Modena is 4-1-0 at home, a start of the season with no losses at 'Braglia' stadium and just 3 goals conceeded opposed to an avg. of 2.4 scored; Lanciano, along with the 1st place in the standings, also hold the best away record of the division with 14 points collected on the road out of 18 at disposal, allowing just 3 goals in 6 matches. I'm thrilled about this matchup because I see it really wide open to any outcome but I think Lanciano might have reached a peak in bookies mind with that line and I'm still convinced such a squad cannot hold for 42 matches at this level so I'm going with Modena for this one. Canarini never disappointed at home so far getting their lonely draw against Palermo in the opener, they're a solid team which probably lack of a bit of luck/effectiveness on the road because in their last two games (at Latina and Spezia) they got just one point despite having dominated both opponents with a more than good organization of play. What I like the most of this team is their defense, which last game apart, always offered solid performances throughout this young season. Probably it's the first time Lanciano will face such a solid defense and as they heavily rely on their own one I don't think they'll be able to win this one. High chances of a low scoring draw (0-0/1-1) but given the mode field advantage (game will be played at 6pm in Modena and lately we've got a decent amount of heavy fog at this time of the day there) and a still pretty playable line I have to pick pick emiliani here.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Modena - Lanciano 1-0


Cheers!