Macheath's Soccer Picks

[Macheath.]

Obligatory picks thread. I'm just getting started here, but I'd like a public place to track my progress and actually have an understanding of how I'm doing. It'll start out geared towards the English Premier League, but I'll add leagues as I work on those data sets. As far as betting goes, I don't trust my goal predictions for each match yet, so I'm staying away from O/U for now and sticking to the ML. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Here goes.

Barclays Premier League 8/17

West Ham -104.2
Manchester United +105



I stayed away from a Sunderland v. Fulham draw (+230) and Norwich (+215), although I saw some value there.

[Macheath.]

Barclays Premier League 8/17 Results

WIN West Ham -104.2
WIN Manchester United +105



Day: +2.01u
Overall: +2.01u

Sweated out a 13' Joe Cole goal until Kevin Nolan made it two at 76'. West Ham had some nice build up play today. They could afford to do it against Cardiff, but we'll see what happens when the Hammers play a stronger side. Manchester United picked its spots well. Despite being outshot and shaky at the back end, the class of Van Persie and company up front was too much for the Swans.

Solid start to the season.

[Macheath.]

Overall: +2.01u

Barclays Premier League 8/18-8/19

Parlay -188.7
Chelsea
Manchester City

[turtlejc]

GL mate, good first day for ya

[Macheath.]

Barclays Premier League 8/18-8/19 Results

WIN Parlay -188.7
Chelsea
Manchester City



Day: +0.53u
Overall: +2.54u

Manchester City cruised to a victory to clinch the parlay win started by Chelsea on Sunday, improving us to 3-0 on the young season. I'll be searching for value this week in anticipation of Week 2 fixtures.

[Macheath.]

Overall: +2.54u

Barclays Premier League 8/23

Stoke/Crystal Palace Draw +245
Southampton/Sunderland Draw +295
Norwich +227



I'm seeing some more draws out there with value, but I don't have the roll to be taking stabs at lower percentage opportunities yet. For now, I'll risk 3u on the highest probability Saturday value plays.

[Macheath.]

Barclays Premier League 8/23 Results

LOSE Stoke/Crystal Palace Draw +245
WIN Southampton/Sunderland Draw +295
LOSE Norwich +227



Day: +0.95u
Overall: +3.49u

I opted to watch Hull-Norwich, but the Southampton/Sunderland draw is what drove the day to cash. It happened to be my highest probability play despite the long odds at the books. We'll pick up the unit and move on to Sunday.