EPL: picks and bets

SportJoker · 05-04-13, 09:01 AM

QPR v Arsenal

Will Arsenal win this game? Yes. Arsenal @1.4. All QPR's hopes are gone and this team is very weak. Meanwhile, Arsenal has to win this game if they want to play the Champions' League next season. I think the gunners will try to score very quickly.

Corners: Over 12 : yes @2.00
During a game, Arsenal & QPR have the same numbers of corners (an average of 7 corners/game). Even if the number of defensive corners for QPR is low (<5 corners per game), during a game with Arsenal, the number of defensive corners is about 7 corners/game. This is why, I think, it's possible to pick "Over 12 corners".

Will both teams score? Yes: @1.9
I'm not quite sure about this one but QPR did well against top teams (Victory @ Liverpool and they have held Man. City and Tottenham to goalless draws @ Loftus Road. Moreover, QPR has offensive players that can score so, ... why not

What do you think?

SportJoker · 05-05-13, 09:27 AM

Man U v. Chelsea

Man U v. Chelsea

Will Man U. win this game? Yes. Man U 0, 0.5 @2.0
Chelsea absolutely needs to win (or draw) if they want to play the champions league next season (Arsenal and Tottenham won yestarday). On the other side, Manchester will want to show that they are the champions and they won't give any chance to Chelsea.

Goals: Over 2.5 @ 1.6
I haven't been really lucky with those bets but these two teams have very good offensive efficiencies and this is quite good if we want to see them score.
Man U 2012/2013: an average of 2.3 goals/game, 46% of their shots are shots on the target and 4 of those shots on target out of 10 are converted into goals!
Chelsea 2012/2013: Man U 2012/2013: an average of 2 goals/game, 46.6% of their shots are shots on target and 1 of those shots on target out of 3 are converted into goals!

Corners: Over 11 @1.95
an average of 6 corners for each team/game. Let's try this one!

Any advices for my picks?

SportJoker · 05-07-13, 12:20 PM

What was wrong this week end with the whole PL!? Most of my picks were ....... It gives good lessons for the future!

So, tonight I think I'll try West Brom @ City

City has 72 points & Chelsea has 68 points => If they want an easy season ending, they should win this night. BUT, will Mancini rotate his team before the FA Cup final next week end? This is quite a problem

. Let's keep it simple, Manchester City, @ home, won 13 times and lost just 1 time (again MU

).

West Brom has nothing to win or nothing to lose. They won 5 games when they played outside (9 defeats).

Here a my picks:

Will Man City win this game? Yes. Man City @1.4

I'll not bet on the numbers of goals 'cause with City, it's quite difficult to forecast it.

I think I won't go further for tonight! (safety first

)

SportJoker · 05-08-13, 01:43 PM

Hey everybody, tonight, let's bet on Tottenham @ Chelsea!

Very impotant game for each team if they want to play the Champions' league next season! Now, it' sure, Man. City will be in CL next week: there's 2 places left for 3 teams (Arsenal, Chelsea & Tottenham). It sounds like we'll have an exciting season ending!

Will Chelsea win this game? Yes. Chelsea @1.9
I don't enjoy Tottenham's game. They just rest on Bale's shoulder. They don't have a good football game. At the opposite, Chelsea (yes, their game is not that good too but they have more efficient players!)

Over 2.5 goals? Yes @ 1.7
Bale will score! Chelsea will win! So, Over 2.5

Corners: Over 11.5? Yes @1.7
I predict an offensive game tonight.
avg corners for Chelsea this season: 6.3
avg corners for Tottenham this season: 6.6
Why not??

Good luck everyone!!!!

SportJoker · 05-12-13, 08:31 AM

Newcastle@ QPR

Hey everybody,

This afternoon, we have an interesting game! Newcaste @ QPR. Although QPR is already doomed, this game is very important for Newcaslte. 3 weeks ago, I played on Newcaslte's game against Liverpool. I really thought that they could do better (6-0 for Liverpool @ Newcastle ...) so, I think it's very difficult to predict the outcome for this game.

Last week, I watched QPR v. Arsenal (... such a boring game!) and it didn't give me any clue about QPR's game! They won many duels but their offensive effiiciency is really ... bad (Remy had to do all on is own, no help from his partners). But, Newcastle is the same so ...

Here are my picks:

Will Newcastle win this game? Yes. Newcastle @2.4.
i'm found of Newcastle so this is why I picked this bet and the odd is quite interesting! Over the last 10 games, Newcaslte has a better offensive efficiency than QPR!

Corners: under 11: Yes @ 2.0
avg corners for Newcastle during the 5 last games: 6
avg corners for QPR during the 5 last games: 4.4
Last time, against Arsenal, I bet Over 12 corners and, when I watched the game, I saw that QPR never had corners! This is why, this time, I'll try Under. But, when too "bad' teams meet, games are vey different!

lucasdawg · 05-13-13, 07:51 AM

what are your thoughts
arsenal v wigan
reading v man city

SportJoker · 05-15-13, 05:47 AM

Hey, I'm sorry, I couldn't answer you yesterday!

AllerWise · 05-15-13, 05:52 AM

Mornin Joker any thoughts on Chelsea/Benefica, Newells/ Sarsfield, Boca/ Corinth. ???

lucasdawg · 05-15-13, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by SportJoker

Hey, I'm sorry, I couldn't answer you yesterday!

all good, will be waiting for this week bol

SportJoker · 05-17-13, 06:40 PM

Hi guys, sorry, lot of work this week!!!

We have some good games this week end:

Arsenal @ Newcastle, Everton @ Chelsea & Man. U @WBA.

What do you think?

true blue 26 · 05-18-13, 05:16 AM

i like man u ml and newcastle 1x so far, any input?

lucasdawg · 05-18-13, 05:32 AM

i like chelsea and man city, maybe man united. i was also looking at arsenal they been good newcastle defence is not very.

SportJoker · 05-18-13, 07:51 AM

Arsenal defense in not that good

. I'm going to look for stats and lineups!

onemoregoal · 05-18-13, 08:16 AM

Arsenals defence can be awful at times, but has looked better and they actually have the second best defense in the league.
Tricky game but on paper it should be 1-3 score, Liverpool showed how weak that Newcastle side can be.

lucasdawg · 05-18-13, 08:28 AM

newcastle was terrible when they lost 4-0 to man city, arsenal attack will be similar to the standard

SportJoker · 05-18-13, 08:37 AM

Just found that for stats, what do you think???

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SportJoker · 05-18-13, 08:40 AM

I agree with you. Against City, against Liverpool, Newcastle was terrible!!!!

but Newcastle has great offencive players and Arsenal defense is not really good so ...

I hope Arsenal will win (I prefer to see Arsenal in Champions' League rather than Tottenham)

but in bets, you have to put your emotions aside!

But it will e difficult for Arsenal

SportJoker · 05-18-13, 12:39 PM

Newcastle v. Arsenal

Very important game for Arsenal (like last week

). Chelsea - Tottenham - Arsenal are still in a fierce competition for a C'sL place! Hopefully for the Gunners, Newcastle, thanks to their victory against QPR last week, has nothing to play for. During one month, Newcastle had difficult games and they were looking for victories in order to stay in PL. Now, it's done! Arsenal wants to win, Newcastle has nothing to lose ... or to win

I picked:

Will Arsenal win this game? Yes. Arsenal @1.6.
Lastest performance:
Newcastle: W-D-L-D-L-W-L
Arsenal: W-D-W-D-W-W

Last game: 7-3 for Arsenal (lol)

Goals: Over 3 @ 1.9
avg goals @ home for Newcastle: 1.3
avg goals outside for Arsenal: 1.3
Draw? No I think Arsenal will win so I pick over 3.0

Corners Over 11 yes @2.0 Yes
average corners (home/away):
Newcastle: 7.4/game Arsenal: 6.1/game

SportJoker · 05-19-13, 09:51 AM

Tottenham v. Sunderland

If you want to bet on Newcastle v. Arsenal, it is quite important to have a look @ this game. Tottenham has many ressources to win this game. My first thoughts are for G. BALE (will he go to Real Madrid next season, I think it's already done). He is the main Tottenham strength.

Will Tottenham win this game? Yes. Tottenham@1.285
I watched their latest games and I saw a team really implicated with one goal: The Champions'League. They know their jobs and they will do everything to win!

Latest performances:
Tottenham:W-D-W-D-W-D-W => Can we think that we'll have a draw???
Sunderland; D-D-L-W-W-L-L (they won against Everton and @ Newcastle but they lost againt Chelsea and Man. U => not a good team against big 4 teams!)
Lastest confrontations: 2-1 for Tottenham

avg goals scored by Tottenham @ home: 1.6
avg goals scored bu Sunderland (outside): 1.2

Tottenham: avg possession @ home: 50%
Sunderland: avg possession (outside): 40%

Tottenham game is not really good so, it's quite difficult to bet on U/O, or corners, ...

I think it's quite wise to stay focus on the victory!

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SportJoker · 10-19-13, 07:17 AM

Hey guys, long time!

Lot of work and I watched several games before beginning betting!

Manchester United - Southampton 19th of October

First I was thinking about betting on Newcastle - Liverpool but I really don't know what to think bout Newcastle so, ... I put this game aside!

This isn't an easy bet: Southampton is 3rd (a serie of 3 winning) and Man U 9th! The Red Devils are quite unstable.

Will Man U win? Yes @ 1.57 (bet365)
Man U is playing at home, Rooney is playing very well lately, they have to improve their ranking => They have to win this game. There's a shadow: RVP and Moyes (http://bit.ly/1a0kiyJ), but I think, this won't be a serious problem for this game.

The biggest problem for Man U is their opponents (lol) because Southampton isn't a little team: they won @ Liverpool (Liverpool was 1st with a huge confidence), they scored at least 1 goal per game (except against West Ham). But, Man U is stronger and should take the lead in this game.

Over 2.5? Yes @ 1.80
avg scored goals @ home for Man U: 1 (!!!!!)
avg scored goals @ away for Southampton: 0.67

In general, Southampton score 1 goal and, I think that Man U will win the game so => Over 2.5

Will both team score? Yes @ 1.72
see before

Asian Line:
According to some models on Parlayz:
socc_misc_stats (60.6 success against handicap): Man (-1)
socc_epl_pl_eff (59.1 success against handicap): SOU (+1) with a calculated spread of 0.52 for Southampton.

According to those models, I think the calculated spreads by the models are not quite enough to play on the asian lines!

Will see the results in 4 hours

SportJoker · 10-19-13, 08:33 AM

Newcastle 2 - 2 Liverpool

I was about to bet on the draw and I didn't do it .....

SportJoker · 04-04-14, 06:38 AM

Hey everyone,

not been here for a long time (lot of work) but for all the "afficionados" I must tell you to visit parlayz.com and you'll find all the stats you need for your bets!

I'll try to post new topics