Nice value on Aston Villa here. Can't trust Liverpool on the road. Aston Villa gets no respect since they're 18th in league standing, 7 points above rock-bottom Reading and QPR.
Stats and numbers can be misleading though. Aston Villa's recent form is promising..hmmm or let's say "not bad".
Aston Villa is 3-2 in last 5 games and won 2 in a row. Beating Reading and QPR no big deal, that's for sure but what about losing versus Arsenal and Manchester City by just 1 goal? That's something..
On the other side, Liverpool lost 3-1 to Southampton in their last game. I respect Pool at Anfield but can't trust them on the road. Liverpool is 4-6-5 so far this season, scored 27 while allowed 25.
Liverpool is 7th in league standing, 8 points behind Arsenal for Europa League spot.
Aston Villa needs points so bad in order to avoid relegation.
Motivation factor favors Aston Villa so let's take a chance with hosts.
I'm on Aston Villa +0,50 @ +130 here. If you're looking for a more safe bet, you can go for Aston Villa +1 @ -130 as well.
According to SSS (Sawyer Score Simulator), Aston Villa has %55 chance to stay undefeated. (Draw + Aston Villa)
Pick:Aston Villa +0,50 +130 (2,30 Decimal)
Good luck!