Monday Soccer Special

[Wilforth]

Soccer Special: 3-3 +5.15

Czech: Jablonec/Banik Ostrava Over 2½ (+110)
England (Championship): Conventry +485
Romania: Unirea Urziceni: +285
Germany (Div 2): Frankfurt +265

[bostonbruins]

What's you reasoning for Coventry?

["Sic"]

Any thought on the o/u 2.5 for Liverpool/West Ham

[Wilforth]

Reading have more injury concerns than Conventry. Among those not likely to feature for Reading are Sodje and Dave Mooney, one of their key strikers. Two of Conventry's 3 road wins so far have been against supposedly superior opposition. One of these was against Birmingham, which have one of the best home records in the Championship. It's also noteworthy that only once in their 9 road games have Conventry failed to score. Given Sodje's and Mooney's absence from Conventry's line-up plus the fact that Coventry are very likely to score in this game, I think we have a 50/50 game and I'd go with the better value.
What I'm trying to is pick a reasonable number of possible upsets such that even at around 30%, you could still turn in a good profit.
I started this Soccer Special series yesterday and I went 3-3 +5.15. That's a small sample sample though but we'll see how this works with time.

Final note: If you parlay the all the favorites in the games above, you'll SURELY lose the bet, which is a guarantee that at least one will hit.

[Wilforth]

Any thought on the o/u 2.5 for Liverpool/West Ham

That's a tricky issue. Let's consider the facts:
1) This fixture ended 4-0 last year with Torres scoring 3. Torres isn't in the line-up today and the Keane/Kuyt partnership is hard to assess yet.
2) Three of Liverpool's 7 home games have gone Under 2.5.
3) West Ham have almost all their injured players back in the line-up. So we have a very fit West Ham versus a somewhat depleted Liverpool. West Ham are on a resurgence after a run of bad results. I believe West ham will have a go at Liverpool while Liverpool would like to avoid an embarrassing defeat even if they fail to win. All these seem to point to a low-scoring affair.

I'd go for goals Under 2.5.

["Sic"]

Fabio Aurelio also out on the defensive side

[Wilforth]

Czech: Jablonec/Banik Ostrava Over 2½ (+110)

[Wilforth]

Fabio Aurelio also out on the defensive side

That's one more reason the Under is likely. If you have a top defender out, the midfield may have more defensive duties than usual leading to a very conservative and cagey game.

["Sic"]

under went from -115 to -130

[Wilforth]

They new line is realistic. We may have a scrappy goalless first half and a second half that won't produce more than 2 goals.

[iladelcat]

So is it safe to say that Liverpool will finally get three points and take the lead in the premier league?

[Wilforth]

So is it safe to say that Liverpool will finally get three points and take the lead in the premier league?

That's not safe by any means. Liverpool's side is depleted and West Ham have their injured players back in the ine-up. I won't be surprised if we get a repeat of Saturday's Aston Villa/Fulham game: a goalless 90 minutes.

[edjian93]

any chances west ham takes it outright

["Sic"]

anyone have a link to watch the Liverpool game?

[Wilforth]

Conventry +485

Conventry is up 1-0 already!

[ZXCVBNM]

Conventry +485

Conventry is up 1-0 already!

and now 2-1 down. They are/were otuplaying Reading though..

Liverpool:

http://veetle.com/viewChannel.php?cid=492eda6f15e33

[Wilforth]

and now 2-1 down. They are/were otuplaying Reading though..

Liverpool:
http://veetle.com/viewChannel.php?cid=492eda6f15e33

There's still time though. We'll see what happens.

[Wilforth]

Day's summary: 1-3 -1.90
4-6 +3.05 since 11/30

[ZXCVBNM]

Yeah I took a hit too.. lost on Lens and the Treviso game.. won on Mainz, I knew that should've been my only play Oh well..

[Wilforth]

I wouldn't touch a favorite in a Monday game in the French Ligue 2.