Cleon's soccer thread on over/unders and injuries

Josu · 11-10-12, 07:48 PM

Sounds interesting, do you have any other criterias? Minimum odds? Home/away game? How many injured players are we talking? I assume they all have to be starters to matter. One should only bet on a team which you know how dependent the team are of the player(s) in question.

cleonhr · 11-10-12, 09:35 PM

Most of the cappers talks of a injured players, never seen anybody actualy do a capping against teams with injuries. Nba it should be a starter injured, NFL QB, RB or WR, NHL - GK, Soccer starting important player (Striker, Defender), or if it is out like 5 or more players from starting eleven from whatever positions.

And minimum odds, yes, I never bet on anything that is lower then 1,70 (European odds). If for example Barcelona plays against team that has 7 injured players, I guess we would play on hendicap -1,5 or -2 or something like that.... Money line with odds 1.15 is not an great option....

cleonhr · 11-11-12, 06:03 AM

11/11/12
Bank:100

PICK 1:
Wolfsburg PK and +0,5 @ 1.917 - 1 Unit (Germany Bundesliga)
(Bayer Leverkusen Injuries: Leno, Kadlec, Schwaab, Bellarabi, Renato, Augusto, Rolfes)

PICK 2:
Parma -0,5 @ 1.800 - 1 Unit (Italia Serie A)
(Siena injured: Martinez, Rodriguez, Rosina, Ze eduardo, Larrondo)

PICK 3:
Torino -0,5 @ 2.000 - 1 Unit (Italia Serie A)
(Bologna injured: Carvalho, Aquafresca, Gimenez, Natali, Morfeo)

PICK 4:
Anderlecht -1 @ 1.962 - 1 Unit (Belgian Jupiler Pro League)
(Club Brugge injured: Donk, Hofkens, Meunier, Van Aker, Vasquez, Zimmling, Larsen)

Pick 5:
Porto -2 @ 2.02 - 1 unit (Portugal, primeira liga)
(Academica injured 6 players)

Pick 6:
Barcelon -1,5 and -2 @ 1.877 - 1 Unit (Spain LA Liga)
(Mallorca 7 players injured)

Pick 7:
Sao Paolo PK and +0,5 @1.901 - 1 Unit (Brazil Serie A)
(Gremio 7 players injured)

Pick 8:
Feyenord -1,5 @1.952 - 1 Unit (Netherlands Eredivisie)
(Roda 5 players injured)

Pick 9:
Marseille -1 @2.09 - 1 Unit (France Ligue 1)
(Nice 7 players injured)

Pick 10:
Villareal - Real Murcia - Under 2,5 @ 1.794 (Spain Segunda Liga) - 1 Unit
(Average goals for both teams is 1.74)

Pick 11:
Parma - Siena - Over 2 and 2.5 @ 1.952 - 1 Unit (Italia Serie A)
(Average goals for both teams is 3.27)

Pick 12:
PAOK - Platanias - Under 2 and 2,5 @ 1.806 - 1 Unit (Greek Super League)
(Average goals for both teams is 0.67)

Pick 13:
Elazigspor - Kayserispor - Under 2,5 @ 1.781 - 1 Unit (Turkey Super Liga)
(Average goals for both teams is 1.00)

Good Luck

Vaughany · 11-11-12, 08:02 AM

When you look at these injured players tho are you takin in to account if the players are actually important to the team or just blindly fading due to injuries in general? For instance txodds.com is useful at informing who is injured and line movement, but sometimes they are kind of irrelevant because the players who are injured haven't played a game anyway or played very few! Like you have put that Bologna are missing Morfeo, Aquafresca, etc..., these aren't exactly key players. Bologna rely heavily on Diamanti and to a certain extent Gilardino. If one of them was missing it would be key but those listed aren't significant. Not saying Torino aren't the right play...they probably are as they are reasonably solid outfit and really need a win as they haven't won in last 5 or 6 if I remember rightly (drawn a lot recently).

cleonhr · 11-11-12, 08:17 AM

Thanks on comment Vaughany, Morleo, Natali and Carvalho are important defenders for Bologna, and this could be the key to the game. Thats why I called out on Torino. Maybe mistaken, but inside feelings tells me that Torino is goin to win this one.... Lets see

cleonhr · 11-11-12, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by cleonhr

11/11/12
Bank:100

PICK 1:
Wolfsburg PK and +0,5 @ 1.917 - 1 Unit WIN 3-1 +0,917

PICK 2:
Parma -0,5 @ 1.800 - 1 Unit - LOSS 0-0 -1

PICK 3:
Torino -0,5 @ 2.000 - 1 Unit - WIN 1-0 +1

PICK 4:
Anderlecht -1 @ 1.962 - 1 Unit WIN 6-1 +0,962

Pick 5:
Porto -2 @ 2.02 - 1 unit - LOSS 2-1 -1

Pick 6:
Barcelon -1,5 and -2 @ 1.877 - Half Win 4-2 +0,438

Pick 7:
Sao Paolo PK and +0,5 @1.901 - 1 Unit LOSS 2-1 -1

Pick 8:
Feyenord -1,5 @1.952 - 1 Unit WIN 5-2 +0,952

Pick 9:
Marseille -1 @2.09 - 1 Unit LOSS 2-2 -1

Pick 10:
Villareal - Real Murcia - Under 2,5 @ 1.794 WIN 2-0 1 Unit +0,794

Pick 11:
Parma - Siena - Over 2 and 2.5 @ 1.952 - 1 Unit LOSS 0-0 -1

Pick 12:
PAOK - Platanias - Under 2 and 2,5 @ 1.806 - 1 Unit Half Win 2-0 +0,403

Pick 13:
Elazigspor - Kayserispor - Under 2,5 @ 1.781 - LOSS 0-4 -1

Final Score 5-6-2
-0,53 Units (Bank: 99,47)

Good Luck

Thats it for today.... Almost Even Steven

cleonhr · 11-13-12, 12:49 PM

11/13/12

Charlotte -1,5 @1.909 - 1 unit

Washington Injuries:
(!)[PG] 10/19/2012 - John Wall out indefinitely ( Knee )
(!)[F/C] 10/19/2012 - Nene Hilario out indefinitely ( Foot )

cleonhr · 11-13-12, 12:52 PM

11/13/12

Portland +2,5 @1.95 - 1 unit

Sacramento Injuries:
[F] 11/12/2012 - Thomas Robinson probable Tuesday vs. Portland ( Suspension
(!)[F/C] 11/12/2012 - DeMarcus Cousins expected to miss Tuesday vs. Portlan

buzzmann · 11-13-12, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

When you look at these injured players tho are you takin in to account if the players are actually important to the team or just blindly fading due to injuries in general? For instance txodds.com is useful at informing who is injured and line movement, but sometimes they are kind of irrelevant because the players who are injured haven't played a game anyway or played very few! Like you have put that Bologna are missing Morfeo, Aquafresca, etc..., these aren't exactly key players. Bologna rely heavily on Diamanti and to a certain extent Gilardino. If one of them was missing it would be key but those listed aren't significant. Not saying Torino aren't the right play...they probably are as they are reasonably solid outfit and really need a win as they haven't won in last 5 or 6 if I remember rightly (drawn a lot recently).

When I check for injuiries or suspensions, I always look to see if there gonna impact the match by not playing. Crap players on the bench mean nothing. But, if several starters are out and no bench best to take the healthy side in most cases. Its like that in most sports teams.

cleonhr · 11-14-12, 12:28 AM

11/13/12
Charlotte -1,5 @1.909 - 1 unit - WIN 92-76 +0,909
Portland +2,5 @1.95 - 1 unit - WIN 103-86 +0,95

NBA 2-0
Soccer 5-6-2
Bank: 101,33 units (+1,33)

cleonhr · 11-14-12, 01:02 PM

11/14/12
NBA
Charlotte +7 @1.909 - 1 Unit

Minnesota Injuries:
[PG] 10/19/2012 - Ricky Rubio out indefinitely ( Knee )
(!)[F/C] 10/19/2012 - Kevin Love out indefinitely ( Hand )
[PG] 11/14/2012 - J.J. Barea "?" Wednesday vs. Charlotte ( Foot )
[G/F] 11/14/2012 - Brandon Roy is downgraded to expected to miss Wednesday
[F] 11/12/2012 - Chase Budinger out indefinitely ( Knee )
[C] 11/12/2012 - Nikola Pekovic injured last game, "?" Wednesday vs. Charlo

Dallas Mavericks -8 @1.909 - 1 Unit

Washington injuries:
(!)[PG] 10/19/2012 - John Wall out indefinitely ( Knee )
(!)[F/C] 10/19/2012 - Nene Hilario out indefinitely ( Foot )

cleonhr · 11-15-12, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by cleonhr

11/14/12
NBA
Charlotte +7 @1.909 - 1 Unit WIN +0,909
Dallas Mavericks -8 @1.909 - 1 Unit LOSS -1

NBA 3-1
Soccer 5-6-2

Bank: 101,24 units (+1,24)

cleonhr · 11-15-12, 11:45 AM

11/15/12

Brooklyn Nets -4,5 @1.91 - 1 Unit

Boston injuries:
[G] 10/26/2012 - Avery Bradley out indefinitely ( Shoulder )
(!)[PG] 11/14/2012 - Rajon Rondo injured last game

Miami +3 @1.91 - 1 Unit

Denver Injuries:
[G/F] 10/19/2012 - Julyan Stone out indefinitely ( Hip )
[F] 11/14/2012 - Kenneth Faried ( Head )
[G/F] 11/15/2012 - Wilson Chandler ( Hip )
(!)[F] 11/15/2012 - Danilo Gallinari ( Knee )

cleonhr · 11-16-12, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by cleonhr

11/15/12

Brooklyn Nets -4,5 @1.91 - 1 Unit - WIN, +0,91
Miami +3 @1.91 - 1 Unit - WIN, +0,91

NBA 5-1
Soccer 5-6-2

Bank: 103,06 units (+3,06)

cleonhr · 11-16-12, 08:19 AM

11/16/12

France Ligue 1 Soccer:
Lille - PK @1.725 - 1 Unit

Lorient injured players:

15.11	Maxime Barthelme	M	11	1-1
15.11	Fabien Robert	F	0	0-0
10.11	Alain Traore	M	9	4-4
5.10	Florent Chaigneau	G	0	0-0
5.10	Lucas Mareque	D	6	0-2

Czech Republic Gambinus Liga

Dinamo České Budějovice - PK - @2.100 - 1 Unit

Vysočina Jihlava injured players:

Kolousek Midfielder [Key player] [Injured]
Tecl Attack [Key player] [Injured]
Mesanovic Attack [Regular player][Injured]
Masopust Midfielder [Regular player][Injured]
Jungr Midfielder [Regular player][Suspension]