Katchase's Soccer Totals

[KATCHASE]

Again, just for tracking...

Friday, December 21:

(All 1 unit flat bets)

Paris SG - under 3.5 @ 1.35
Guingamp - over 2.5 @ 2.47
Caen - over 2.5 @ 2.31
Metz - under 3.5 @ 1.29
Fus Rabat - over 2.5 @ 2.95
Tenerife - over 2.5 @ 2.15
Carmarthen - under 2.5 @ 2.62
Cambuur - under 2.5 @ 2.7

[KATCHASE]

Adding:
Swindon - over 2.5 @ 2.4

[dkthrilla33]

i got psg total at 2.5 -120...should i play overs???

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Scunthorpe v Carlisle
Brentford v Stevenage

[KATCHASE]

Wednesday, December 26:

Bristol City Vs. Watford - Over 2.5 @ 1.81 (1 unit to win 0.81 units)

Boston vs. Corby - Over 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.5 units)
Blyth Vs. Whitby - Over 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.5 units)

GL

[KATCHASE]

I didn't realize the Dartford game already started. Sorry. I removed it from my picks today.

[etishere]

just had to reply to this...
there is absolutely nothing wrong with going for a system that hits 80% of the time (assuming you get that 80%) and where the odds are low, as long as the odds represent value over the predicted probability.

If your selection is predicted to win 80% of the time and it pays $1.40 then you will achieve a 10% profit over a series of ten bets - absolutely nothing wrong with that and the benefit of such a system is that the run of losses possible is significantly diminished.

The only problem is ascertaining whether your 80% predicted win rate is correct.
Some of these games we have seen in this thread have had strong over or under trends, but only based on ten or so games for this season. The true long term accuracy of the event may not have been correct and probably masked teams away from home scoring weaknesses.


Personally, I much prefer to bet on games where the chance of winning is very high, and I can get my 10% profit, rather than bet on a 50/50 game - but then that is a personality thing.

I congratulate Katchase for sticking his neck on the line and going for it in this thread and I agree with his own assessment that a tweak or two may be in order.

Sorry for my absence lately...a heart attack and surgery sidelined me for a couple of weeks and also have been busy putting the final touches on a sports betting ebook I have been writing.

Hang in there Katchase... there are plenty of opportunities in the path you are looking at, I hope you start turning a profit soon...

regards
ET

[KATCHASE]

ET...Once again, your input is much appreciated. I'm so sorry to hear about your recent health issues. I sure hope you are feeling better and wish you a speedy recovery!

As you can see, over the course of a few losing days, things really went downhill fast. I agree with you about the difficulty in ascertaining a consistently high win rate and long term accuracy based on limited data so early in the season. That is something I'm hoping to improve as the season progresses and develop into a specific formula that works long term.

I was debating on whether or not to abandon this thread, but I've decided against it for the time being. My picks rely heavily on current data of opposing teams and I find that posting my picks is not only perfect for tracking, but it also keeps me motivated and diligent.

Being that I've made some significant changes to my system, I'd like to reset my record. This would give me a clearer picture of whether or not the changes I've made are working. I just can't stress enough to everyone that my plays are a "work in progress" and not for blind tailing for the time being. Good luck to all!

[KATCHASE]

Record (Since December 28):
0-0 (0%) +0 units

Friday, December 28 Plays:

WALES PREMIER
BANGOR VS. PRESTATYN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.35 (2 units to win 0.7 units)

[KATCHASE]

Record (Since December 28):
1-0 (100%) +0.7 units


Friday, December 28 Results:
WALES PREMIER
BANGOR VS. PRESTATYN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.35 (2 units to win 0.7 units)...WIN (3-3)

[KATCHASE]

Saturday, December 29 Plays:

INDIA I-LEAGUE
PRAYAG UTD VS. SC GOA - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (2 units to win 0.90 units)
WALES PREMIER
PORT TALBOT VS. AFAN LIDO - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (2 units to win 0.80 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
MANCHESTER UNITED VS. WEST BROM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.5 units)
ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE PREMIER
DARTFORD VS CAMBRIDGE UTD - OVER 2.5 @ 1.7 (1 unit to win 0.7 units)
ENGLAND BLUE SQARE NORTH
HALIFAX VS. CORBY - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units)
HARROGATE VS. DROYLSDEN - OVER 2.5 @1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units)
SCOTLAND DIVISION 3
ANNAN VS. ELGIN CITY - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units)
MONTROSE VS. STIRLING - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.50 units)



Other games I'd like to add if odds become available:
ENGLAND NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE
FYLDE VS. STOCKSBRIDGE - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)
NORTHERN IRELAND IFA CHAMPIONSHIP 1
HORLAND & WOLFF VS. DUNDELA - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)
TOBERMORE VS. DERGVIEW - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)
WALES DIVISION 1
MONMOUTH VS. TATA - OVER 2.5 (1 unit - odds not yet available)


Leans:
ARSENAL VS. NEWCASTLE UTD - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62
LUTON VS. EBBSFEET - OVER 2.5 @ 1.46
WHITEHAWK VS. ENFIELD TOWN - OVER 2.5 (odds not yet available)

[etishere]

good on ya Katchase, you are on the right path, just need some tweaks.

I am a strong believer in success breeds success - teams with strong records in a particular area are worthy of pursuing.

thanks for the best wishes - I am fine. :-)

I am in favour of Afan Lido going over in the Wales league, and Man U going over as well.

Have great day and keep posting!!

ET

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Wishing you all the best ET.
Hope you are feeling better and ready to celebrate the New Year in style.
Interested in this ebook you are writing - what is it about?

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

MOROCCO BOTOLA
WYDAD FES VS. DIFAA EL JADIDI - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)

[KATCHASE]

8-3 yesterday on all posted plays.

2-0 on my two unit plays and 4-3 on all official/available plays, -0.4 units

Saturday, December 29 Plays:

INDIA I-LEAGUE
PRAYAG UTD VS. SC GOA - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (2 units to win 0.90 units)
WALES PREMIER
PORT TALBOT VS. AFAN LIDO - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (2 units to win 0.80 units)

Adding:

ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
MANCHESTER UNITED VS. WEST BROM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.5 units)
ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE PREMIER
DARTFORD VS CAMBRIDGE UTD - OVER 2.5 @ 1.7 (1 unit to win 0.7 units)
ENGLAND BLUE SQARE NORTH
HALIFAX VS. CORBY - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units) PSPD
HARROGATE VS. DROYLSDEN - OVER 2.5 @1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units) PSPD
SCOTLAND DIVISION 3
ANNAN VS. ELGIN CITY - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units)
MONTROSE VS. STIRLING - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.50 units)



Other games I'd like to add if odds become available:
ENGLAND NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE
FYLDE VS. STOCKSBRIDGE - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)PSPD
NORTHERN IRELAND IFA CHAMPIONSHIP 1
HORLAND & WOLFF VS. DUNDELA - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)
TOBERMORE VS. DERGVIEW - OVER 2.5 (2 units - odds not yet available)
WALES DIVISION 1
MONMOUTH VS. TATA - OVER 2.5 (1 unit - odds not yet available) PSPD


Leans:
ARSENAL VS. NEWCASTLE UTD - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62
LUTON VS. EBBSFEET - OVER 2.5 @ 1.46 PSPD
WHITEHAWK VS. ENFIELD TOWN - OVER 2.5 (odds not yet available)

Adding:

MOROCCO BOTOLA
WYDAD FES VS. DIFAA EL JADIDI - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)

[KATCHASE]

Record...Since December 28:
5-3 (62.5%) +0.3 units (All plays)
3-0 (100%) +2.4 units (2 unit plays)


Saturday,, December 29 Results:
INDIA I-LEAGUE
PRAYAG UTD VS. SC GOA - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (2 units to win 0.90 units)...WIN (1-3)
WALES PREMIER
PORT TALBOT VS. AFAN LIDO - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (2 units to win 0.80 units)...WIN (6-1)
ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
MANCHESTER UNITED VS. WEST BROM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.5 units)...LOSE (2-0)
ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE PREMIER
DARTFORD VS CAMBRIDGE UTD - OVER 2.5 @ 1.7 (1 unit to win 0.7 units)...LOSE (1-1)
SCOTLAND DIVISION 3
ANNAN VS. ELGIN CITY - OVER 2.5 @ 1.45 (1 unit to win 0.45 units)...LOSE (2-0)
MONTROSE VS. STIRLING - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (1 unit to win 0.50 units)...WIN (3-2)
MOROCCO BOTOLA
WYDAD FES VS. DIFAA EL JADIDI - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)...WIN (1-1)

[KATCHASE]

Sunday, December 30 Plays:

GHANA PREMIER LEAGUE
NEW EDUBIASE VS. ADUANA STARS - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)

[KATCHASE]

Record...Since December 28:
6-3 (66.7%) +0.7 units (All plays)
3-0 (100%) +2.4 units (2 unit plays)
1-0, +0.4 units (Last day)


Sunday, December 30 Results:
GHANA PREMIER LEAGUE
NEW EDUBIASE VS. ADUANA STARS - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)...WIN (1-0)

[KATCHASE]

Monday, December 31 Plays:

IRAN PRO LEAGUE
DAMASH VS. HORMOZGAN - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6 (1 unit to win 0.6 units)
NAFT TEHRAN VS. MES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

Record...Since December 28:
7-4 (63.6%) +0.7 units (All plays)
4-0 (100%) +3.4 units (2 unit plays)
1-1, +0 units (Last day)


Monday, December 31 Results:
DAMASH VS. HORMOZGAN - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6 (1 unit to win 0.6 units)...LOSE (1-2)
NAFT TEHRAN VS. MES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit)...WIN (0-0)

[KATCHASE]

Happy New Year! Wishing everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous 2013!

Tuesday, January 1 Plays:

ENGLAND BLUE SQAURE PREMIER
WOKING VS. LUTON - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62 (1 unit to win 0.62 units)

ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE NORTH
ALTRINCHAM VS. STALYBRIDGE - OVER 2.5 @ 1.55 (1 unit to win 0.55 units)
DROYLSDEN VS. CHESTER - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)

MOROCCO BOTOLA
MAGHREB FEZ VS. FAR RABAT - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.36 (1 unit to win 0.36)

WALES PREMIER
CONNAHS Q VS. AIRBUS - OVER 2.5 @ 1.35 (2 units to win 0.7 units)
PRESTATYN VS. BANGOR - OVER 2.5 @ 1.3 (1 unit to win 0.3 units)

[KATCHASE]

Four down ... two more to go!

[KATCHASE]

...and there's the fifth win with Prestatyn. Now hoping for the under in the Morocco game to make it a sweep today.

[KATCHASE]

...holding my breath on this last one...2-0 in the 88th min.

[KATCHASE]

...and it hits the under for the sixth and final win today.

[KATCHASE]

Record...Since December 28:
13-4 (76.5%) +3.63 units (All plays)
5-0 (100%) +4.1 units (2 unit plays)
6-0, +2.93 units (Last day)


Tuesday, January 1 Results:
WOKING VS. LUTON - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62 (1 unit to win 0.62 units)...WIN (3-1)
ALTRINCHAM VS. STALYBRIDGE - OVER 2.5 @ 1.55 (1 unit to win 0.55 units)...WIN (2-1)
DROYLSDEN VS. CHESTER - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (1 unit to win 0.4 units)...WIN (3-4)
MAGHREB FEZ VS. FAR RABAT - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.36 (1 unit to win 0.36)...WIN (2-0)
CONNAHS Q VS. AIRBUS - OVER 2.5 @ 1.35 (2 units to win 0.7 units)...WIN (4-1)
PRESTATYN VS. BANGOR - OVER 2.5 @ 1.3 (1 unit to win 0.3 units)...WIN (4-1)

[PuckIt]

Solid work today!

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Whats the most solid 2 unit play you got for tomorrow?

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I always see people start out really, really good then break even with their plays. If you can keep this up, you'll be in good hands. You're doing well.

[KATCHASE]

Solid work today!

Thanks PuckIt

[KATCHASE]

I always see people start out really, really good then break even with their plays. If you can keep this up, you'll be in good hands. You're doing well.

Thanks, but this very thing happened to me. I started out really well, but then hit a wall and considered giving up. Instead, I backtracked and analyzed my games, found some mistakes, made some changes to my system and started again. I consider this a "work-in-progress", but so far so good with the changes.

[KATCHASE]

<b><u>Wednesday, January 2 Plays:</u></b><u></u><br><br>SCOTLAND DIVISION 3<br><strong>EAST STIRLING VS. STIRLING - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 (2 units to win 1 unit)</strong><br>

[sparky12]

Im newbie here i guess your work is very good idea im follow this thread thanks for idea

[KATCHASE]

Ouch...1-1 at half and then nothing. Tough loss.