I see this one being a draw and going to penalty kicks.
Comment
onlooker
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
08-10-05
36572
#3
Germany.
Comment
Dark Horse
SBR Posting Legend
12-14-05
13764
#4
This would have to be one of the strongest WC plays. Germany is playing for HUGE national pride. And the home crowd will be behind their team one last time. Germany should be an exception to the rule that most teams playing for third are still ailing over a missed spot in the final, and therefore not too interested. Portugal will not be such an exception.
Comment
DrSlamm
SBR Wise Guy
11-10-05
577
#5
is there ever a reason to bet the -127 instead of the -.5 at -120.. isnt the -.5 a 100 percent strictly better bet?
is there ever a reason to bet the -127 instead of the -.5 at -120.. isnt the -.5 a 100 percent strictly better bet?
Unless there's some World Cup-specific quirk of which I'm unaware (and it does seem like soccer betting is full of quirks), it does seem like Germany -0.5 -120 in regulation is strictly better than Germany -127 in regulation (counting a draw as a loss).
Actually, the former 3-way line implies a lower probability of a German regulation-time victory (53.53% vs. 53.86%) and hence at zero vig a slightly better deal for the bettor, but due to the higher juice (4.33% vs. 1.26%), it's ultimately an inferior bet.