Q's Football Draw Selections Trial

[Quench]

Hello everyone,

Since the 1st October I seem to have figured out a way to select draws in football matches. I downloaded all the spreadsheets from football-data.co.uk and found that out of 74,812 matches, 20,307 of them were draws (which works out at 27.1%).

Since the 1st October I have analysed 723 football matches from around the world and from 85 picks, I've had 30 winners (which is a strike rate of 35.29%) and a ROI of 37.3%. I know 85 matches isn't much of a sample size to base a successful system on but I thought I'd share my selections on here. I'll try to post them everyday.

I use lots of different bookies to get the best prices, so I will quote the best price and bookie at the time of writing.

So with all that out of the way here are the first selections for 12/10/2012:

SPORT RECIFE V GREMIO / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (3.57 @ pinnacle Sports)
CACERENO V BETIS B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4 (3.20 @ Sportingbet)

[kosti]

Very very interesting....I've thought about trying to find data and create a system for draws, great value if you can find some trends. Just completing a parlay system that has taken close to a month to research (I don't know how program so it's all done by hand) and will see how it goes...draws will be the next project.

I will be following your thread with great interest, thanks!

[silvap]

i tried something like that a couple of months ago, started well but ended up not succeeding.
best of luck on the project sir

how are you analysing these picks? it is a purely mathematical type of process or are you going by team form and such?

[bolek]

Playing the gremio draw as well for small and over in the coritiba game gl on ur project

[Quench]

I've been looking at previous results and head to heads and I seem to have found a pattern. I say 'seem to have' because I hope it's not just luck. The 723 matches I analysed have produced 179 draws (24.8%) so that seems bang on, but my method has filtered out quite a few losers leaving me with 35% strike rate. I'm just hoping it's not a lucky patch.

There are additional filters I can use to up the strike rate to 39%, but I won't be doing that until I have got a few more results in. It's given me 28 picks and 11 winners (39.3%) so far... we shall see.

[Quench]

Playing the gremio draw as well for small and over in the coritiba game gl on ur project

Thanks and let's hope its a draw!

[Quench]

SPORT RECIFE V GREMIO / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (3.57) LOST -1.00
CACERENO V BETIS B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4 (3.20) LOST -1.00

I'm also paper trading selections for home wins and away wins. I've currently got a 34.6% SR for Away Wins (+9% from the norm) and 55.6% for home wins (+10% from average). So I will post those selections here too to keep an eye on:
(The prices quoted come from oddsportal.com, and are at the time of writing.)


---AWAY WINS (12/10/2012)---
ELVERSBERG V PFULLENDORF / GERMANY / REGIONALLIGA SUDWEST (7.00) LOST -1.00
PRO PATRIA V VENEZIA / ITALY / LEGA PRO C2/A (4.50) WON +3.50


Here are the selections for Saturday 13/10/2012:


---DRAWS---
WESTERLO V BRÜSSEL / BELGIUM / BELGACOM LEAGUE (4.41)
BOURNEMOUTH V LEYTON ORIENT / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (3.61)
CARLISLE V NOTTS COUNTY / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (3.44)
CHESTERFIELD V DAGENHAM & RED. / ENGLAND / LEAGUE TWO (3.68)
GILLINGHAM V ALDERSHOT / ENGLAND / LEAGUE TWO (4.03)
WORCESTER V STALYBRIDGE / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE NORTH (3.60)
EASTBOURNE V SUTTON / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE SOUTH (3.60)
MANNHEIM V HOMBURG / GERMANY / REGIONALLIGA SUDWEST (3.50)
DUNDALK V BOHEMIANS / IRELAND / PREMIER LEAGUE (3.60)
ATHLONE V WATERFORD / IRELAND / DIVISION 1 (3.30)
DUNGANNON V LINFIELD / NORTHERN IRELAND / IFA PREMIERSHIP (3.80)


---HOME WINS---
SOLIHULL V GUISELEY / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE NORTH (5.80)
CRUZ AZUL V QUERETARO / MEXICO / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (1.41)
XEREZ V SANTANDER / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION (2.68)
QVIDING V KRISTIANSTADS / SWEDEN / DIVISION 1 - SÖDRA (2.80)
FENIX V JUVENTUD / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (2.10)


---AWAY WINS---
FREM V HELLERUP / DENMARK / 2ND DIVISION EAST (2.60)
BRABRAND V THISTED / DENMARK / 2ND DIVISION WEST (2.95)
HARTLEPOOL V DONCASTER / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (2.75)
MANSFIELD V FOREST GREEN / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE PREMIER (2.88)
MERVUE V SALTHILL / IRELAND / DIVISION 1 (6.80)
ORN V FRAM / NORWAY / DIVISION 2 - GROUP 1 (3.85)
OSASUNA B V ALAVES / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 2 (1.75)
LUCENA V ALMERIA B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4 (2.50)
RIVER PLATE V PROGRESO / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (4.80)

	HOMES	DRAWS	AWAYS
BETS:	0	2	2
WINS:	0	0	1
S/R:	-	0.0%	50.0%
P/L:	0.00	-2.00	+2.50
ROI:	-	-100.0%	125.0%

[Quench]

Selections for Sunday 14/10/2012:
(The prices quoted come from oddsportal.com, and are at the time of writing.)
The odds for the Venezuelan matches will probaby come out tomorrow or later today.


---HOME WINS---
CORITIBA V BAHIA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (1.75)
QUINDIO V CHICO / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (2.38)
BELEN V SAN CARLOS / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (1.8)
VESTSJAELLAND V SKIVE / DENMARK / 1ST DIVISION (1.67)
CESENA V CROTONE / ITALY / SERIE B (2.51)
BENEVENTO V ANDRIA / ITALY / LEGA PRO C1/B (1.78)
GIJON B V CAUDAL / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 1 (2.15)
FUENLABRADA V VALLECANO B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 1 (1.86)
CENTRAL ESP. V LIVERPOOL M. / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.4)


---DRAWS---
SUDTIROL V CUNEO / ITALY / LEGA PRO C1/A (3.3)
AVISPA FUKUOKA V TOCHIGI / JAPAN / J-LEAGUE DIVISION 2 (3.36)
SAN LUIS V ATLANTE / MEXICO / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.36)
SWINOUJSCIE V WARTA / POLAND / DIVISION 1 (3.6)
ELCHE V NUMANCIA / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION (3.69)
ADANASPOR V TAVSANLI LINYITSPOR / TURKEY / PTT 1. LIG (3.6)
ERCIYESSPOR V GOZTEPE / TURKEY / PTT 1. LIG (3.6)
DANUBIO V EL TANQUE SISLEY / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.4)


---AWAY WINS---
AVAI V CRB / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (8.16)
IND. MEDELLIN V MILLONARIOS / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (2.75)
ALAJUELENSE V SANTOS DE GUAPILES / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (5.3)
CARTAGINES V LIMON / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (4.85)
VICENZA V PADOVA / ITALY / SERIE B (2.9)
REGGINA V LIVORNO / ITALY / SERIE B (2.85)
CERRO CA V WANDERERS / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (2.95)

Edit: I scrapped the Venezuelan matches because I couldn't find any odds for them.

[beefcake]

Good luck on this man! I love the work you have done.Hope it works out!!

[Quench]

Good luck on this man! I love the work you have done.Hope it works out!!

Thanks mate I hope it works too!

2 out of 2 on the away wins so far today, Hellerup and Fram won their games, Mannheim was a draw loss, and Qviding was a Home victory. So +5.25 units so far today, not too bad. I'll update the stats when all todays games are finished.

[Quench]

Todays results.

Here are the selections for Saturday 13/10/2012:


---DRAWS---
WESTERLO V BRÜSSEL / BELGIUM / BELGACOM LEAGUE (4.41) LOST -1.00
BOURNEMOUTH V LEYTON ORIENT / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (3.61) LOST -1.00
CARLISLE V NOTTS COUNTY / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (3.44) LOST -1.00
CHESTERFIELD V DAGENHAM & RED. / ENGLAND / LEAGUE TWO (3.68) LOST -1.00
GILLINGHAM V ALDERSHOT / ENGLAND / LEAGUE TWO (4.03) LOST -1.00
WORCESTER V STALYBRIDGE / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE NORTH (3.60) LOST -1.00
EASTBOURNE V SUTTON / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE SOUTH (3.60) LOST -1.00
MANNHEIM V HOMBURG / GERMANY / REGIONALLIGA SUDWEST (3.50) LOST -1.00
DUNDALK V BOHEMIANS / IRELAND / PREMIER LEAGUE (3.60) WON +2.60
ATHLONE V WATERFORD / IRELAND / DIVISION 1 (3.30) LOST -1.00
DUNGANNON V LINFIELD / NORTHERN IRELAND / IFA PREMIERSHIP (3.80) WON +2.80


---HOME WINS---
SOLIHULL V GUISELEY / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE NORTH (5.80) WON +4.80
CRUZ AZUL V QUERETARO / MEXICO / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (1.41) WON +0.41
XEREZ V SANTANDER / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION (2.68) LOST -1.00
QVIDING V KRISTIANSTADS / SWEDEN / DIVISION 1 - SÖDRA (2.80) WON +1.80
FENIX V JUVENTUD / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (2.10) LOST -1.00


---AWAY WINS---
FREM V HELLERUP / DENMARK / 2ND DIVISION EAST (2.60) WON +1.60
BRABRAND V THISTED / DENMARK / 2ND DIVISION WEST (2.95) POSTPONED
HARTLEPOOL V DONCASTER / ENGLAND / LEAGUE ONE (2.75) LOST -1.00
MANSFIELD V FOREST GREEN / ENGLAND / BLUE SQUARE PREMIER (2.88) LOST -1.00
MERVUE V SALTHILL / IRELAND / DIVISION 1 (6.80) LOST -1.00
ORN V FRAM / NORWAY / DIVISION 2 - GROUP 1 (3.85) WON +2.85
OSASUNA B V ALAVES / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 2 (1.75) WON +0.75
LUCENA V ALMERIA B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4 (2.50) LOST -1.00
RIVER PLATE V PROGRESO / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (4.80) LOST -1.00

	HOMES	DRAWS	AWAYS	TOTAL
BETS:	5	13	10	28
WINS:	3	2	4	9
S/R:	60.0%	15.4%	40.0%	32.1%
P/L:	+5.01	-5.60	+2.70	+2.11
ROI:	100.2%	-43.1%	27.0%	7.5%

[Quench]

Todays games update (14/10/2012):
Added the Venezuelan matches back in as the prices were finally released:

---HOMES---
YARACUYANOS V ATL. VENEZUELA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (1.78)

---DRAWS---
PORTUGUESA V LARA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.3)
DEP. PETARE V DEP. TACHIRA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.3)
LLANEROS V MONAGAS / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.25)

[Quench]

Only 2 selections for tomorrow (15/10/2012):

---HOMES---
T. MOSCOW V SIBIR / RUSSIA / DIVISION 1 (2.65)

---DRAWS---
ENVIGADO V DEP. CALI / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (3.5)

[Quench]

Today's results:

Selections for Sunday 14/10/2012:

---HOME WINS---
CORITIBA V BAHIA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (1.75) WON +0.75
QUINDIO V CHICO / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (2.38) WON +1.38
BELEN V SAN CARLOS / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (1.8) LOST -1.00
VESTSJAELLAND V SKIVE / DENMARK / 1ST DIVISION (1.67) WON +0.67
CESENA V CROTONE / ITALY / SERIE B (2.51) LOST -1.00
BENEVENTO V ANDRIA / ITALY / LEGA PRO C1/B (1.78) LOST -1.00
GIJON B V CAUDAL / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 1 (2.15) WON +1.15
FUENLABRADA V VALLECANO B / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 1 (1.86) LOST -1.00
CENTRAL ESP. V LIVERPOOL M. / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.4) LOST -1.00
YARACUYANOS V ATL. VENEZUELA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (1.78) WON +0.78


---DRAWS---
SUDTIROL V CUNEO / ITALY / LEGA PRO C1/A (3.3) LOST -1.00
AVISPA FUKUOKA V TOCHIGI / JAPAN / J-LEAGUE DIVISION 2 (3.36) WON +2.36
SAN LUIS V ATLANTE / MEXICO / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.36) WON +2.36
SWINOUJSCIE V WARTA / POLAND / DIVISION 1 (3.6) LOST -1.00
ELCHE V NUMANCIA / SPAIN / SEGUNDA DIVISION (3.69) LOST -1.00
ADANASPOR V TAVSANLI LINYITSPOR / TURKEY / PTT 1. LIG (3.6) WON +2.60
ERCIYESSPOR V GOZTEPE / TURKEY / PTT 1. LIG (3.6) LOST -1.00
DANUBIO V EL TANQUE SISLEY / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.4) LOST -1.00
PORTUGUESA V LARA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.3) LOST -1.00
DEP. PETARE V DEP. TACHIRA / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.3) WON +2.30
LLANEROS V MONAGAS / VENEZUELA / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (3.25) LOST -1.00


---AWAY WINS---
AVAI V CRB / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (8.16) LOST -1.00
IND. MEDELLIN V MILLONARIOS / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (2.75) LOST -1.00
ALAJUELENSE V SANTOS DE GUAPILES / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (5.3) LOST -1.00
CARTAGINES V LIMON / COSTA RICA / PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO DE INVIERNO (4.85) WON +3.85
VICENZA V PADOVA / ITALY / SERIE B (2.9) WON +1.90
REGGINA V LIVORNO / ITALY / SERIE B (2.85) WON +1.85
CERRO CA V WANDERERS / URUGUAY / PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA (2.95) LOST -1.00

	HOMES	DRAWS	AWAYS	TOTAL
BETS:	15	24	17	56
WINS:	8	6	7	21
S/R:	53.3%	25.0%	41.2%	37.5%
P/L:	+4.74	-2.98	+6.30	+8.06
ROI:	+31.6%	-12.4%	37.1%	14.4%

[i97g]

doody

[Quench]

Today's results (15/10/2012):

---HOMES---
T. MOSCOW V SIBIR / RUSSIA / DIVISION 1 (2.65) LOST -1.00

---DRAWS---
ENVIGADO V DEP. CALI / COLOMBIA / LIGA POSTOBON - FINALIZACIÓN (3.5) WON +2.50

	HOMES	DRAWS	AWAYS	TOTAL
BETS:	16	25	17	58
WINS:	8	7	7	22
S/R:	50.0%	28.0%	41.2%	37.9%
P/L:	+3.74	-0.48	+6.30	+9.56
ROI:	+23.4%	-1.9%	37.1%	16.5%

[Quench]

Tomorrow's selections (16/10/2012):

---DRAWS---
ATLETICO-PR V AVAI / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (3.6)
AMERICA-RN V PARANA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (3.55)
GOIAS V GUARANI / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (4.5)
VITORIA V ASA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (5)

---AWAYS---
SAO CAETANO V CEARA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (3.95)
WITTON V MARINE / ENGLAND / NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE (2.6)

[kosti]

Has anyone done any research into leagues that tend to have more draws than others? This could help put a focus on draws from certain leagues as looking through 60 leagues for a draw prospect can be daunting. For example, and this is just using two leagues off the top of my head which I felt met each category....Ligue 2 in France this year has 35% of their matches ending with draws....Holland's eerste divisie in contrast has just over 20%. Last year the numbers were 31.6% and 21.8% respectively. The year before that 32.3% and 26.7%......

Anyways, that's all I looked at, but there could be some value in focusing on certain leagues....would love to know if anyone has actually crunched the numbers and found any consistency in any leagues for higher % of draws or whether it is just coincidental?

[Quench]

Has anyone done any research into leagues that tend to have more draws than others? This could help put a focus on draws from certain leagues as looking through 60 leagues for a draw prospect can be daunting. For example, and this is just using two leagues off the top of my head which I felt met each category....Ligue 2 in France this year has 35% of their matches ending with draws....Holland's eerste divisie in contrast has just over 20%. Last year the numbers were 31.6% and 21.8% respectively. The year before that 32.3% and 26.7%......

Anyways, that's all I looked at, but there could be some value in focusing on certain leagues....would love to know if anyone has actually crunched the numbers and found any consistency in any leagues for higher % of draws or whether it is just coincidental?

That's what I'm trying to do with my method of selecting. Look at both teams' previous results and see if they have scored/conceded a similar amount of goals as each other. Logically, so long as their opponents were of a similar strength, the next game should be close too. So, hopefully over time it should filter out games such as Ligue 2 and others. Since I started on 1st Oct, it has chosen 5 french games, and 4 of them were draws. 3 dutch games and 2 were draws.

This is a good site for draw info though if you need it: http://www.soccervista.com/soccer_le...r_of_draws.php

[Quench]

Tomorrow's selections (17/10/2012):

---DRAWS---
BAHIA V PALMEIRAS / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (3.5)

[Quench]

Yesterday's results (16/10/2012):

---DRAWS---
ATLETICO-PR V AVAI / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B(3.6) LOST -1.00
AMERICA-RN V PARANA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO(3.55) LOST -1.00
GOIAS V GUARANI / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B(4.5) LOST -1.00
VITORIA V ASA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B5) LOST -1.00

---AWAYS---
SAO CAETANO V CEARA / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO B (3.95) LOST -1.00
WITTON V MARINE / ENGLAND / NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE (2.6) LOST -1.00

	HOMES	DRAWS	AWAYS	TOTAL
BETS:	16	29	19	64
WINS:	8	7	7	22
S/R:	50.0%	24.1%	36.8%	34.4%
P/L:	+3.74	-4.48	+4.30	+3.56
ROI:	+23.4%	-15.4%	+22.6%	+5.6%

From now on, I'm scrapping the home and away selections and just concentrating on the draws. I've decided my approach to selecting home and away games wasn't logical.

[Quench]

Tomorrow's selections (17/10/2012):

---DRAWS---
BAHIA V PALMEIRAS / BRAZIL / CAMPEONATO BRASILEIRO (3.5) LOST -1.00

	DRAWS
BETS:	30
WINS:	7
S/R:	23.3%
P/L:	-5.48
ROI:	-18.3%

Todays games (19/10/2012):
VOCKLAMARKT V A. KLAGENFURT / AUSTRIA / REGIONALLIGA CENTRAL (3.4)
SEDAN V ARLES / FRANCE / LIGUE 2 (3.2)
CHERBOURG V ROUEN / FRANCE / NATIONAL (3.2)
TRIER V KAISERSLAUTERN (AM) / GERMANY / REGIONALLIGA SUDWEST (3.4)
SINGAPUR V TAMPINES / SINGAPORE / S-LEAGUE (3.88)