Wilforth soccer picks

[Wilforth]

The aims of this thread are to:
1) enable me track my records
2) enable others assess the "safety" of my picks through the records.

Nov 08

England: Hull +100 (vs Bolton)
One of Premiership's highest scoring sides at home against one of the least scoring sides.

Italy: Roma -133 (vs Bologna)
After thrashing Chelsea, Roma will ride on their resurgence to win at Bologna. Bologna have lost 4 of their 5 home games. They'll welcome one more loss in the hands of last years' league runners up.

[Wilforth]

Nov 08

England: Hull +100 (vs Bolton)
One of Premiership's highest scoring sides at home against one of the least scoring sides.

Italy: Roma -133 (vs Bologna)
After thrashing Chelsea, Roma will ride on their resurgence to win at Bologna. Bologna have lost 4 of their 5 home games. They'll welcome one more loss in the hands of last years' league runners up.

Adding:

France: Le Mans PK+100 (vs Sochaux)
Sochaux are at home where they've lost 2 and drawn 4 of their 6 home games. Le Mans with a 50% road win rate has a good chance here. Le Mans are 9th while Sochaux are 20th (out of 20) in the league. Le Mans have only lost only one of their 6 road games and that was against Marseille, the league's 2nd best team. PK reduces the risk that should Le Mans fail to win, we'll still get our money back. No way will Le Mans with only one loss in 6 road games lose to the worst team in the league.

BOL.

[zootiehead]

Roma looks solid.

[Dashwood Clipper]

Go Hull
Roma looks good, line at -126, shall wait on it.

[Wilforth]

Hull are about to lose!
They're trailing 0-1.

[Dashwood Clipper]

Story of my last 3 days.

[Wilforth]

I won't play a game in the Premiership anymore. It's just crazy!

[Wilforth]

Hull

Oh Roma, pleeeeeeeeeeeze save my day

Oh Le Mans, if you won't win, please don't lose.

[bostonbruins]

I feel your pain, Leverkusen gave away a 3-0 lead & killed my parlay

I'm a glutton for punishment, put a few bucks on Roma

[Wilforth]

It's still 0-0 in the Roma game. Roma might contrive to spoil one's day.

[bostonbruins]

Unbelievable

[Wilforth]

One idiotic Roma player scored an own goal to ensure one's day ended in sadness.

Roma drew 1-1
Hull lost 0-1
Le Mans lost 1-2

What can I say?

[Wilforth]

Yesterday 0-3 -3.33

Nov 9

England: Tottenham Hotspurs +220 (vs Manchester City)
These are 2 teams in opposite directions. Spurs are on a resurgence while City are deepening into mediocrity. The only thing that's sure about City is that they'll concede at least 2 goals. Let's go with the defensively disciplined team.

Italy: Catania +105 (vs Cagliari)
Italy is the home of home wins. Catania are at home where they've won 80% of their games while Cagliari have lost 80% of their road games. On paper, this looks very juicy except that with soccer, you never know. But let's try.

Brazil: Internacional RS v Ipatinga draw +300
Call it game fixing. Call it a coincidence. Call it whatever you like but about 75% of the time, the draw with the highest odd cashes in Brazil. This has become more of a tradition lately. On paper, this game pitches a very strong team (Internacional) against the league's worst team (Ipatinga) but such games have a way of producing surprising results. It's also noteworthy that Ipatinga beat Intercional 1-0 in the reverse fixture.

[Wilforth]

Tottenham Hotspurs +220
Catania +105

Adding:

Belgium: Club Brugge +120 (vs Royal Charleroi).
Club Brugge can't pass up this opportunity to consolidate their hold on the top spot when they face 10th placed Charleroi.

[Wilforth]

Yesterday 2-2 +1.25

2-5 -2.08 since Nov 8

11/10

No plays.

[Wilforth]

Yesterday 0-0 0.00

2-5 -2.08 since Nov 8

11/11

Austria Vienna vs. Rapid Vienna Over 2.5 (-133)
This game could go either way but one fancies the Over here as both sides are likely to score and it looks like there's going to be a winner.

[Wilforth]

Austria Vienna vs. Rapid Vienna Over 2.5 (-133)
This game could go either way but one fancies the Over here as both sides are likely to score and it looks like there's going to be a winner.

I should also add that Austria is averaging 2.13 goals at home while Rapid is averaging 2.38 goals n the road. So Over 2.5 looks very plausible.

[Wilforth]

Austria Vienna won 2-0. Rapid Vienna failed to score even though they were favorites to win. So Over 2.5 didn't cash. Too bad.

Day's summary: 0-1 -1.33

[Wilforth]

Yesterday 0-1 -1.33

2-5 -3.41 since Nov 8

11/12

Austria: Sturm Graz +100 (vs. LASK Linx)
Graz are in raging form right now and they're facing a slumping LASK Linx. Graz are 5-0 in their L5 while Linx are 0-5 in their L5.

Scotland: Rangers -200 (vs Motherwell)
We're lucky to get Rangers at this price and that's because they're on the road. Rangers are not taking anything to chance as they want to win the Scottish title this year.

[bostonbruins]

Tough break on the Rangers.

Are all your plays to win 1 unit?

[Wilforth]

Tough break on the Rangers.

Are all your plays to win 1 unit?

That's what I assume for my records, but I actually vary my wagers with my assessment of the realistic probability of an outcome.

[Wilforth]

Yesterday 1-1 -1.00

3-6 -4.41 since Nov 8

11/13

Spain (Copa del Rey): Sevilla/Ponferradina UNDER 3 (-110)
80% of the games between these 2 sides have gone UNDER the total and one looks for that trend to continue here. Ponferradina beat Sevilla 1-0 in the reverse fixture. Sevilla isn't likely to field their "A" team for this game as they have an important league game against Getafe on Sunday.
Final note: These cup games tend to be scrappy. Ponferradina will do whatever they can to protect their narrow lead. Expect a goalless first half and less than 3 goals for the game.

[Wilforth]

[QUOTE=Wilforth;1191224]

11/13
Spain (Copa del Rey): Sevilla/Ponferradina UNDER 3 (-110)

Adding:
Spain (Copa del Rey): Getafe +180 (vs Osasuna)
Osasuna are the home team. The reverse fixture ended in a goalless draw, but that wouldn't count toward the likely outcome of this game. Osasuna hasn't won at home this season. They've only managed to score one goal in their 5 home games so far. On the flip side, Getafe do better on the road. They haven't failed to score in any of their road games this season. That they didn't score against Osasuna in their last meeting only increases the probability that they (Getafe) will score today because Getafe hasn't failed to score against Osasuna in 2 straight meetings.

You normally don't want to factor in league form in this kind of games but the lineups are identical to their regular league lineups and I'd go with the road dog at a nice price.

[Wilforth]

3-7 -5.51 since Nov 8

11/15

England:
Newcastle +100 (vs. Wigan)
Liverpool -181 (vs. Bolton)
Chelsea -333 (vs. West Brom)

France
PSG +120 (vs. Le Havre)

Germany
Bayer Leverkusen +125 (vs. Schalke)
Bayern Munich -222 (vs. Moenchengladbach)

[Wilforth]

Adding:
Netherlands: NEC Nijmengen +160 (vs. a pathetic Roda JC)

[Wilforth]

Summary for the day: 4-3 +0.03

7-10 -5.48 since Nov 8

[Wilforth]

Yesterday: 4-3 +0.03

7-10 -5.48 since Nov 8

11/16

Germany (Bundesliga): Koln +500 (vs. Werder Bremen)
Koln is the road team. Koln has the same road win rate (50%) as Bremen's home win rate. Koln has won 5 of their L7 while Bremen has won a meagre 2 of their L7. Koln is presently 2 places above Bremen in the Bundesliga and are the better team on current form.

Germany (Bundesliga 2): FSV Frankfurt +220 (vs. Frieburg)
There's no doubt as to which team is the better team here. The home team, FSV, sits at the bottom of the league while the visitors (Freiburg) are in 3rd place. A rational analysis of this game will have you pick Freiburg but from what we see these days, these are the kind of games that end in home dog wins.

Italy: Chievo +1200 (vs. AC Milan)
AC Milan is very vulnerable against very weak opposition. Remember the only time they lost at home this year was against Bologna which is one of the league's bottom teams. This contest looks primed for a huge upset.

Italy: Cagliari +190 (vs. Fiorentina)
Fiorentina only boasts a 40% road win rate. Expect Cagliari to utilize their home advantage to the fullest.

Netherlands: Ajax +110 (vs. PSV)
Expect Ajax to maintain their 100% home record in this battle of the titans.

[Ivan77]

Wilford its nice to see smart people who know there soccer in here! I have Ajax at +105 for 2k were looking good as now it became 3-1 Ajax in the 81st minute!!!!!!!!!


Hey Wilford what do you think about the Over/Under in the AC Milan vs. Chievo????

[Wilforth]

Ivan,

This is obviously too late but one would expect the Milan/Chievo game to stay Under 2.5. Come to think of it, Chievo won't really be going to Milan to win. All they'll be doing all day will be to keep it close. If they (Chievo) score first for whatever reasons, they'll defend in numbers all day long. If Milan scores first, Chievo will still defend in numbers to keep their loss margin close. So I think we may not see more than 2 goals in that game.
Forget my Chievo pick anyways. It's just one of those "maybe it could happen". You don't stake much on such.
For me, Ajax was my POD.

[Ivan77]

I agree and Ajax was my big play the rest of the games I went small on cause I had a great day yesterday. Im saving my profits for the NFL. I will add another 1k on the over on the City/Hull match. City has a lot of weapons and Hull hasn't been playing well of late but I expect Geovanni to score and robinho to have a big game!

[Wilforth]

Ivan,

Hull/Man City Over 2.5 was no bet. It's a gift. I told a friend that game would go Over in the 1H and it did.

[Wilforth]

Yesterday: 3-2 0.00

9-13 -5.48 since Nov 8

11/17

No plays.

[Wilforth]

Yesterday: 3-2 0.00

9-13 -5.48 since Nov 8

11/17

No plays.

Correction:

Yesterday: 2-3 0.00

[Wilforth]

9-13 -5.48 since Nov 8

11/25

England League 1: Peterborough +130 (vs Swindon)
Peterborough are the road team and they're 9th on road form while Swindon are 19th on home form.

Champions League

Juventus +320 (vs. Zenit)
This is the most deceptive line I've ever seen since I became an adult. Juventus are the better team. The fact that they've qualified for the next round even makes the game tougher for Zenit as Juve will be playing under no pressure.

Aalborg +190 (vs Celtic)
Celtic are the road team and they've lost their L10 Champions League road games. That trend should continue here.

[Netprofit]

I am buying soccer lotto so I need help in form of input in all today and tomorrow champions league matches in the next 2 hours ...