Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[stevenash]

When LAD, down 3-1 in the top of the ninth had poo holes as the tying run at the plate I thought I was fukked.

I didn't see it, did he get a hold of it or was it a routine fly?

[KVB]

I didn't see it, did he get a hold of it or was it a routine fly?

Fly out, not too deep either.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

So much for Santa coming once a year.

[KVB]

Looks like Santa had some help emptying his sack.

[KVB]

Great news kids!! You only have to leave Santa cookies this year, he's got his own milkers now!!!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

So much for Santa coming once a year.

Looks like Santa had some help emptying his sack.

[stevenash]

Daggles?
The beauty of the beef and black bean burrito is your farting the next day too.
It's truly the gift that keeps on giving.

[hubie69]

Daggles?
The beauty of the beef and black bean burrito is your farting the next day too.
It's truly the gift that keeps on giving.

How dare you

[stevenash]

How dare you

I dare.

(what did I say wrong)?

[hubie69]

I dare.

(what did I say wrong)?

Lol nothing just flipping shit. Should have added /s.

[KVB]

Cubs and Wash in the lead but I doubt Cubs hold on.

Would take MIL live if it were a better deal.

At least thinking about it.

Wash gives up 2 runs in the top of the 9th to lose 9-8.

lol

[KVB]

[stevenash]

Can i play too?

[smokenjoke]

GL

[KVB]

Cubs and Wash in the lead but I doubt Cubs hold on.

Would take MIL live if it were a better deal.

At least thinking about it.

Milwaukee with the 4 run 8th inning.

Passed on MIL +133 live.

[stevenash]

Milwaukee with the 4 run 8th inning.

Passed on MIL +133 live.

I was watching that on MLB.
That's unlike Rowan Wick to suck like that.
He really has good shit, just not tonight.

[KVB]

I was watching that on MLB.
That's unlike Rowan Wick to suck like that.
He really has good shit, just not tonight.

I'm so pissed at myself over that. I had up in the terminal, two different books, and said fukk it, when it was a viable legit play at +133.

4-0 turns to 2-2 for the Fund, which is nothing.

It's the UNIT swing in the Fund that sucks...

952	17-Sep	WAS +103	-1
958		CIN +157	1.57
959		CHC +200	-1
967		MIN +193	1.93
		Fri	1.5

Not to mention the missed LIVE opportunity.

I kind of glad The Fund was only up +1.5 units, because I haven't posted a chart in a while and I wanted to get into beofre a breakout. Which we almost had.

How about the Giants/ATL game. Atlanta takes the lead top of the 9th, but we're in extras.

[stevenash]

I'm so pissed at myself over that. I had up in the terminal, two different books, and said fukk it, when it was a viable legit play at +133.

4-0 turns to 2-2 for the Fund, which is nothing.

It's the UNIT swing in the Fund that sucks...

952	17-Sep	WAS +103	-1
958		CIN +157	1.57
959		CHC +200	-1
967		MIN +193	1.93
		Fri	1.5

Not to mention the missed LIVE opportunity.

I kind of glad The Fund was only up +1.5 units, because I haven't posted a chart in a while and I wanted to get into beofre a breakout. Which we almost had.

How about the Giants/ATL game. Atlanta takes the lead top of the 9th, but we're in extras.

I have three words for when stuff like this happens.

"Shake it off"

[KVB]

I'm so pissed at myself over that. I had up in the terminal, two different books, and said fukk it, when it was a viable legit play at +133...

Just like I will bump and talk about those South Carolina/ECU trades that were fukkin great, I will do the same with mistakes, or failure. If you read you might remember when I said I got fooled int he 49er game and then later came in and showed how and why. I review behavior, I analyze what we do, to no end. And this is worth review.

Losses don't always mean failure. And failure doesn't always mean losses. I'm defining failure as mistakes here.

Read that quoted post. Discipline is everything. When metrics or criteria are met, triggers must be pulled. This isn't a breakdown in discipline where bets that shouldn't be made were made, the most common type outside of breakdown in bet amount variation. This is a break down where I was present, looking at the situation, seeing what I would take. Seeing it, and not taking it.

It's not as bad as the first type of breakdown, which can occur in so many different ways, from chasing to bad information, to getting fooled and not on being on your toes 24/7, the ways are countless; but all types of breakdowns must be evaluated.

If you are confident in your capping and it's not false confidence, then all you can ask for are more opportunities. If you aren't there for opportunities, it's ok, you can't be there for everything, but when it's up on the screen and could be bought, and isn't, that's a mistake. And it won.

[KVB]

I have three words for when stuff like this happens.

"Shake it off"

Indeed. For that error, after review, the only thing I can do is just that, shake it off.

It's exactly what has to happen. Any other action to try to avoid or curb that behavior with just tonight's incident would be the opposite of shaking it off.

The best sports bettor to ever live won't have a major in mathematics and a minor psychology, he'll have the major in psychology and the minor in mathematics.

[stevenash]

Indeed. For that error, after review, the only thing I can do is just that, shake it off.

It's exactly what has to happen. Any other action to try to avoid or curb that behavior with just tonight's incident would be the opposite of shaking it off.

The best sports bettor to ever live won't have a major in mathematics and a minor psychology, he'll have the major in psychology and the minor in mathematics.

I think you need equal parts mental and math.
But yeah all the math in the world that you have learned and retained over the years doesn't mean jack shit if your mind ain't right.

[stevenash]

Which reminds me of my favorite 'Cars' song.

[KVB]

I think you need equal parts mental and math.
But yeah all the math in the world that you have learned and retained over the years doesn't mean jack shit if your mind ain't right.

As well as understanding the psychology of the competition, not the books, but the other bettors, the other players at the table.

The Cars were awesome. Those early MTV embracers, making videos...

[KVB]

DJ Old Sch00l just woke up, all hammered drunk, walked over to my house, knocked on the door, and was like "did I here the cars?"

And I was like "DJ, who's gonna drive you home tonight?"

[KVB]

Did anyone happen to notice how the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket is doing?

Here's last year, with links to every play. This ml fund was -9.64 units last year over 101 plays and was 68-31-2 against the close beating it by .17 cents...

Total

-9.64

68-31-2

0.17

2020	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
241	5-Sep	M TENN ST +155	-1	151	Y	0.04
243	7-Sep	BYU -120	0.83	-119	N	-0.01
403	12-Sep	COAST CAR +150	1.5	170	N	-0.20
107	19-Sep	WAKE +125	-1	-131	Y	0.56
115		MIA +110	1.1	-124	Y	0.34
125		LOUIS TECH +170	1.7	232	N	-0.62
155		ABILENE CHRIST +163	-1	245	N	-0.81
401	26-Sep	LOUISVILLE +150	-1	126	Y	0.24
109	3-Oct	E CAROLINA -102	-1	-123	Y	0.25
125		MEMPHIS +115	-1	105	Y	0.10
131		NAVY -110	-1	-250	Y	1.40
135		T TECH +160	-1	-117	Y	0.77
159		S MISS +105	1.05	110	N	-0.05
307	10-Oct	MISS ST +130	-1	135	N	-0.05
315		E CAROL +155	1.55	169	N	-0.14
105	15-Oct	GA ST +150	-1	147	Y	0.03
117	17-Oct	NAVY +103	1.03	-166	Y	0.69
119		DUKE +160	-1	142	Y	0.18
121		VIRGINIA +117	-1	104	Y	0.13
135		TEXAS ST +125	-1	164	N	-0.39
139		MISSISSIPPI (+102)	-1	-114	Y	0.16
157		N TEXAS +153	1.53	145	Y	0.08
165		GEORGIA +172	-1	180	N	-0.08
309	23-Oct	LAFAYETTE +105	1.05	-126	Y	0.31
311	24-Oct	GTECH +161	-1	137	Y	0.24
313		FLORIDA ST +165	-1	178	N	-0.13
347		CINCI +125	1.25	-103	Y	0.28
349		IOWA ST +155	-1	115	Y	0.40
361		SC +188	-1	178	Y	0.10
375		HAWAII +165	1.65	119	Y	0.46
389		GA ST +103	1.03	111	N	-0.08
393		M TENN ST +110	1.1	150	N	-0.40
103	29-Oct	S ALABAMA +170	-1	151	Y	0.19
157	29-Oct	COLORADO ST -102	-1	-127	Y	0.25
141	30-Oct	HAWAII +102	-1	-135	Y	0.37
115	31-Oct	UTSA +170	-1	175	N	-0.05
117	31-Oct	K STATE +140	-1	169	N	-0.29
155		RICE +144	1.44	-112	Y	0.56
161		N'WESTERN +156	1.56	-119	Y	0.75
163		TEXAS +135	1.35	154	N	-0.19
169		TEMPLE +106	-1	198	N	-0.92
173	31-Oct	TROY +122	1.22	143	N	-0.21
175		TCU -110	0.91	-126	Y	0.16
181		LSU -110	-1	-110	PUSH	0.00
285	4-Nov	BALL ST +155	-1	-104	Y	0.59
287		E MICH +161	-1	170	N	-0.09
295		OHIO -110	-1	-135	Y	0.25
319	7-Nov	PITT -110	0.91	-116	Y	0.06
325		TROY -103	-1	-132	Y	0.29
361		WASH ST +106	1.06	133	N	-0.27
379		NEBRASKA +161	-1	152	Y	0.09
119	11-Nov	TOLEDO +115	-1	105	Y	0.10
141	14-Nov	TCU +124	-1	142	N	-0.18
155		MIAMI +110	1.1	104	Y	0.06
161		WISCONSIN -110	0.91	-249	Y	1.39
165		N'WESTERN -110	0.91	-168	Y	0.58
197		BAYLOR -103	-1	102	N	-0.05
203		ARMY +170	-1	139	Y	0.31
207		SMU +102	-1	-127	Y	0.29
225		LOUISVILLE +135	-1	183	N	-0.48
313	18-Nov	W MICH -103	0.97	-107	Y	0.04
327	20-Nov	PURDUE -110	-1	-132	Y	0.22
333	21-Nov	IOWA +108	1.08	-110	Y	0.18
341		E CAROL +108	1.08	-259	Y	2.67
359		LIBERTY +132	-1	155	N	-0.23
365		GA SOUTH +161	-1	139	Y	0.22
375		RICE +108	-1	104	Y	0.04
387		SDSU +105	-1	-110	Y	0.15
393		LSU +115	1.15	-121	Y	0.36
137	27-Nov	STANFORD +110	1.1	-117	Y	0.27
143		IOWA ST +115	1.15	-132	Y	0.47
157	28-Nov	GA SOUTH +104	-1	123	N	-0.19
181		PENN ST +160	1.6	-103	Y	0.63
185		DUKE -110	-1	-136	Y	0.26
219		N TEXAS +125	-1	103	Y	0.22
289		LOUISVILLE +102	-1	-102	Y	0.02
299		SDSU +140	-1	187	N	-0.47
323	3-Dec	LOUSIANA TECH +107	1.07	-113	Y	0.20
327	4-Dec	UL LAFAYETTE +138	1.38	143	N	-0.05
357	5-Dec	NEBRASKA +103	1.03	104	N	-0.01
361		FAU -110	-1	-135	Y	0.45
363		BG +132	-1	122	Y	0.10
365		BALL ST +115	1.15	-131	Y	0.46
383		UCLA +161	1.61	115	Y	0.46
393		OK ST -106	-1	-128	Y	0.22
429		MEMPHIS +110	-1	142	N	-0.32
437		ARKANSAS +140	-1	107	Y	0.33
445		SJSU -105	0.95	-137	Y	0.42
491	6-Dec	W KENTUCKY +102	1.02	120	N	-0.18
113	12-Dec	WAKE +124	-1	-116	Y	0.40
115		DUKE +170	-1	133	Y	0.37
385		WISCONSIN +134	-1	-124	Y	0.58
393		RUTGERS +140	1.4	130	Y	0.10
399		W MICHIGAN +130	-1	-120	Y	0.50
405		N ILLINOIS +168	-1	189	N	-0.21
419		NC +168	1.68	128	Y	0.40
421		VIRGINIA +130	-1	134	N	-0.04
195	18-Dec	UAB +170	1.7	170	PUSH	0.00
251		OREGON +150	1.5	143	Y	0.07
247	19-Dec	MISSISSIPPI +110	-1	-113	Y	0.23
249		MISSOURI -103	-1	-112	Y	0.09
		Total	-9.64		68-31-2	0.17

But the thing is, we waited all year for that Fund to pop, like it always has, but it was a COVID year. While 101 plays went off, 33 triggers in that Fund were cancelled. I can even post those too, with links, lol.

So of course we expected the Fund to pop, fully Funded and getting posted here at SBR. So of course it does...

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket with links to each play...

	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
137	2-Sep	BOISE ST +155	-1	182	N	-0.27
153	3-Sep	MICH ST +160	1.6	140	Y	0.20
157	4-Sep	ARMY +130	1.3	115	Y	0.15
173		INDIANA +160	-1	155	Y	0.05
197		SYRACUSE +108	1.08	119	N	-0.09
201		UTSA +165	1.65	167	N	-0.02
209		S MISS +102	-1	115	N	-0.13
217		NEVADA +145	1.45	127	Y	0.18
317	11-Sep	SC +160	1.6	-143	Y	0.83
349		IOWA +160	1.6	161	N	-0.01
359		TEXAS ST -103	0.97	102	N	-0.05
381		SDSU -103	0.97	107	N	-0.10
119	18-Sep	VTECH +135
131		MINN +115
175		CHARLOTTE -103
197		OK ST +155
		Total	9.22		5-7-0	0.06

So, shit, I hope everyone tailed, lol. because it gets choppy from here.

I remain full Funded though, and when we get into the charts which now can span over 3 seasons of posted plays, we'll aggressively trade this Fund.

[stevenash]

^
Drive was featured in the movie "Midnight Heat"

Brandon Flowers front man for the Killers inducted the Cars into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

[KVB]

Ok, so I want to tell you guys about what happened here with Vtech/WV and the lines...

...Circa did a move of protection on that Vtech bet too, I'll get into that once I'm done here... but know that it made -3 go to -2.5, then protection put it back, at -3.

Circa oddsmaker fukked up...lol.

Wish I would have explained this a little more, lol, because 5 minutes later 5d hung the total at 49.5. It would have basically a punchline to my story about the numbers.

Books trying to take Vtech off the table for a pro audience while at the same time keeping the line low.

Fukkers.

Before the line came out on this game it had already been decided that if I can get +2.5 or +3 on VTech with the Total at 48 or lower then Vtech would trigger.

So the first line available to me is Vtech +3 and the Total is 46.5. I scream BUY into the phone...lol.

We slam.

87 seconds later the line stays at 3, but the Total moves to 49
20 minutes after that the Total moves to 48.5 and the line drops to 2.5...it eventually went to 3 and traded back and forth.

5D opens with the 3 line just 5 minutes after Circa but waits 50 more minutes to open the Total at 49.5, well above the 48 threshold.

The line went on to trade at 50 and 50.5 while Vtech sits at -2.5.

They kept us off Vtech as best they could but that Total will drop off of 50.5 and Vtech will probably never touch +3 again, and me even drop further to 1.5 or lower.

Expect that Total to drop, and if it makes it down to 48, we could see a pick em.

This is what happens when you are on the forefront of the marketplace.

[KVB]

Think Tank this shit.

[KVB]

Here's the Fund that Vtech spread play went into.

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
153		3-Sep	MICH ST +4.5 (-110)	0.91	3	Y	1.5
173		4-Sep	INDIANA +4 (-107)	-1	3.5	Y	1
119		18-Sep	VTECH +3 (-110)
131			MINN +3 (-110)
179			SC +32 (-110)
			Total	-0.09		2-0-0	1.25

Last year this Fund was 33-24-2 ATS for +6.42 units and was 38-11-10 against the close beating it buy more than a point. 10 triggered plays were cancelled due to the Kung Flu.

Here is every play with links...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
119	1-0-0	19-Sep	SYRACUSE +21 (-110)	0.91	21	PUSH	0
133	2-0-0		NAVY +4.5 (-105)*	0.95	4.5	PUSH	0
155	2-0-1		ABILENE CHRIST +4 (-110)	0	8	N	-4
437	2-1-1	26-Sep	KENTUCKY +9.5 (-110)	-1	6	Y	3.5
449	2-2-1		DUKE +6 (-105)	-1	4	Y	2
321	3-2-1		CAMPBELL +36 (-110)	0.91	32.5	Y	3.5
323903	4-2-1		E KENTUCKY +10 (-115)	0.87	8.5	Y	1.5
435	5-2-1		VANDERBILT +30.5 (-103)	0.97	31.5	N	-1
105	6-2-1	3-Oct	S FLORIDA +24 (-110)	0.91	21.5	Y	2.5
115	6-3-1		MISSOURI +11 (-110)	-1	10	Y	1
121	7-3-1		NC STATE +14 (-104)	0.96	14	PUSH	0
153	7-4-1		AUBURN +7.5 (-110)	-1	7.5	PUSH	0
315	8-4-1	10-Oct	E CAROL +4 (-104)	0.96	5.5	N	-1.5
321	8-5-1		TENNESSEE +14 (-103)	-1	12.5	Y	1.5
329	9-5-1		ARKANSAS +16.5 (-105)	0.95	13.5	Y	3
339	9-6-1		TEXAS ST +7 (-105)	-1	7	PUSH	0
113	9-7-1	17-Oct	PIT +10.5 (-107)	-1	11.5	N	-1
127	10-7-1		KANSAS +22 (-106)	0.94	21	Y	1
133	11-7-1		KENTUCKY +6 (-105)	0.95	6	PUSH	0
137	11-8-1		W KENTUCKY +13 (-110)	-1	10.5	Y	2.5
313	11-9-1	24-Oct	FLORIDA ST +6.5 (-110)	-1	5	Y	1.5
339	12-9-1		RUTGERS +16.5 (-110)	0.91	9.5	Y	7
359	12-10-1		KANSAS +20 (-114)	-1	18.5	Y	1.5
393	13-10-1		M TENN ST +4 (-107)	0.93	3.5	Y	0.5
115	13-11-1	31-Oct	UTSA +7.5 (-110)	-1	4.5	Y	3
117	13-12-1		KANSAS ST +4 (-110)	-1	5	N	-1
161	14-12-1		N'WESTERN +3.5 (-110)	0.92	-1	Y	4.5
311	15-12-1	6-Nov	SJSU +9.5 (-102)	0.98	10	N	-0.5
329	16-12-1	7-Nov	UL MONROE +19.5 (-110)	0.91	18.5	Y	1
345	17-12-1		BAYLOR +14 (-107)	0.93	14	PUSH	0
349	17-13-1		MICHIGAN ST +7 (-112)	-1	5.5	Y	1.5
387	18-13-1		VANDERBILT +18.5 (-107)	0.93	18	Y	0.5
393	19-13-1		NEW MEXICO +16.5 (-110)	0.91	13.5	Y	3
395	20-13-1		W KENTUCKY +11.5 (-110)	0.91	6.5	Y	5
407	21-13-1		N ALABAMA +17.5 (-120)	0.83	17	Y	0.5
139	22-13-1	14-Nov	VANDERBILT +18 (-110)	0.91	17	Y	1
141	22-14-1		TCU +3 (-110)	-1	3	PUSH	0
195	22-15-1		UTEP +5 (-110)	-1	5.5	N	-0.5
221	23-15-1		S MISS +8 (-110)	0.91	8	PUSH	0
327	23-16-1	20-Nov	PURDUE +1 (-105)	-1	-2.5	Y	3.5
333	24-16-1	21-Nov	IOWA +3 (-110)	0.91	-1	Y	4
345	25-16-1		MISS ST +23 (-110)	0.91	26.5	N	-3.5
373	25-17-1		FLORIDA INT +10 (-110)	-1	7	Y	3
403	25-18-1		KANSAS ST +11.5 (-108)	-1	13.5	N	-2
233	26-18-1	28-Nov	KANSAS ST +5 (-110)	0.91	5.5	N	-0.5
297	27-18-1	28-Nov	UTAH +7 (-105)	0.95	9	N	-2
347	27-19-1	5-Dec	SC +12.5 (-110)	-1	11.5	Y	1
363	27-20-1		BG +4 (-110)	-1	2.5	Y	1.5
375	28-20-1		RICE +25 (-110)	0.91	24.5	Y	0.5
395	28-21-1		WV +6.5 (-111)	-1	6	Y	0.5
401	29-21-1		INDIANA +14 (-110)	0.91	12.5	Y	1.5
427	29-22-1		COLORADO ST +9.5 (-110)	-1	7.5	Y	2
491	30-22-1	6-Dec	W KENTUCKY +2.5 (-105) LIVE	0.95	2.5	PUSH	0
385	30-23-1	12-Dec	WISCONSIN +3 (-120)	-1	-1.5	Y	4.5
391	30-23-2		MICHIGAN ST +15 (-106)	0	14	Y	1
425	30-24-2		ILLINOIS +14.5 (-106)	-1	13	Y	1.5
195	31-24-2	18-Dec	UAB +6 (-110)	0.91	4.5	Y	1.5
211	32-24-2	19-Dec	MINNESOTA +11.5 (-107)	0.93	11	Y	0.5
237	33-24-2		TULSA +14 (-115)	0.87	13.5	Y	0.5
	33-24-2		Total	6.42		38-11-10	1.050847

There are several seasons of charts of all posted plays at SBR with this Fund as well, but it's not a market tracking Fund.

We'll get into this chart as the season moves on as well.

Links to past summaries...

Here is the 2018 Summary...52-30-1 ATS for +18.73 UNITS; 50-18-15 vs. the close beating it by .63 points.
Here is the 2019 Summary...60-52-1 ATS for +3.41 UNITS; 65-31-17 vs. the close beating it by .54 points.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Hospitalized

[KVB]

Hospitalized

Fukkin knew it.

When I didn't hear back and you hadn't posted, I knew what was up.

Good to hear from you.

[BeatTheJerk]

Hospitalized

In my prayers Fuddles.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Hospitalized

Fuk

Been thinkin about you man.

You’re a battler. You got this!

[Seaweed]

What happened to Fidel?