1. #74096
    turtledoves
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    umass/bc under 63.5
    forgot to get it in


  2. #74097
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    umass/bc under 63.5 next
    wvu -9.5
    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    C MICH/UK over 49.5

    stacking random indicators has this at 56.6

    think i made a mistake with WVU
    I agree it is a mistake.

    Truthfully, in the middle of the night, I was going to do one quick game write up, just one game.

    That game was going to be Tenn +10.

    It's not in my ATS/ML Fund, but I own this play. I have seen nothing but what I consider sharp money on Tenn +10, even in the middle of the night. This line was lighting up for me like crazy.

    Let's see what happens and who gets taken down in this first week, but I think Tenn is the answer.

    Crazy market action and the line should have fallen more, that's good news for you.


  3. #74098
    turtledoves
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    way too much value to pass up
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:52 PM.

  4. #74099
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    WASHST/WYO over 44.5

    way too much value to pass up, got this at a 59.5
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    NCAAF Totals Fund added..

    WASH ST/WYOMING UNDER 45.5 (-102).

    Good Luck.
    Interesting Doves, because this game has a lot of volume and the tickets are as weighted on the Over as the money I see coming in is weighted on the Under.

    It's a big discrepancy and, at these levels, causes what looks to be a valid adjustment to the line.

    The stacking percentages forecast only shows a 50 point game before looking at the market factors and adjusting down, below the offered line. Sharon may have to come out here, but regressing market factors, to my knowledge, is only done by me. I know of no other that has even a clue as to where to start.


  5. #74100
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    WASHST/WYO over 44.5

    way too much value to pass up, got this at a 59.5
    This is the first week anyway, how the hell are you deriving a reliable score?

    Even I said that the market analysis will compensate for the weak early season initial forecasts.

  6. #74101
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  7. #74102
    turtledoves
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    nothing remotely close to reliable. having a lot of fun coming up with these numbers though



    thanks for providing the context and insights into the methodology

  8. #74103
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    On my basic HP keyboard there is a little white light on the corner of the caps lock button. It comes on when caps lock is on.

    I think it's a bright led, because I was directly over it, standing, and looked at it.

    It's bright as fuk.

    Going to order another keyboard though, maybe a badass gaming key and mouse for the Omen. Need another computer and two more screens going. I want the 42" as the main screen on one computer and the other to have dual monitors.

    Could be a sick setup.

    While the tv is big, I'm tired of switching windows.

    Paul Simon good stuff, Hitman OG with Gorilla Glue #5 mixed in the bowl is also good stuff.

    Taking a break.


  9. #74104
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    stacking random indicators puts auburn total at 53.8, taking the over
    Score right away, maybe a kickoff return.


  10. #74105
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up.

    KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105)
    ...
    Nice.

  11. #74106
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    Added some plays to the Contrarian Fund...

    Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Under 10 (+100)MLB [General]
    09/01/18 08:05 PM ET


    Cleveland Indians -115MLB [General]
    09/01/18 07:10 PM ET


    Pittsburgh Pirates +126MLB [General]
    09/01/18 07:10 PM ET


    Baltimore Orioles -112MLB [General]
    09/01/18 07:15 PM ET


    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8 (-115)MLB [General]
    09/01/18 09:05 PM ET


  12. #74107
    turtledoves
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    plays:
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:53 PM.

  13. #74108
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    Ok, one more Fund.

    The KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund will consist of market reads based on the action we've seen during the day. It will consist of forecast predictions and overlay the same market analysis as the other NCAAF Funds but will add one more element. It will overlay existing market conditions to further refine potential market reads.

    This will not be a basket, but could comprise more than one play some nights. The manager element comes into play as I will need to choose the best market reads for the evening based on what ever perceived edges we can find. I will not play every "advanatagous" play uncovered, I will personally try to weed out the losers.

    This can result in manager error, something I try avoid with most Funds, but this risk is what makes this fund different.

    The first play in this fund is BYU +10 (-104) over Arizona.

    Good Luck.




  14. #74109
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    I plan to cash on these market reads and am accumulating BYU as much as I am allowed.

    Taking a bite here.


  15. #74110
    turtledoves
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    picked
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:54 PM.

  16. #74111
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    Would have taken the Under, everyone on the Over, but not a big sample, not a lot of bets.

    Shit game to analyze.


  17. #74112
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    picked up IDAHO/FRESNO over 43
    have this at 57.1

    UTSA/AZ ST at 56.36
    BYU/ARIZ at 59.47
    I know you were saying things were random but if you are using the same methods for the plays, track them in rotation order and graph the money or win loss in rotation order.

    If they are different methods, then separate the graphs.



  18. #74113
    turtledoves
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    there's a boss in town
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:54 PM.

  19. #74114
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    random
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:54 PM.

  20. #74115
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    im winning eating masala while you gonna lose the dolla

  21. #74116
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    picking up ARIZ, have this one at -14.9

    there's a new boss in town

    The Under might be the best play there. Almost made it a Market Read but shouldn't try for both.

    Tonight we seek the spread.

    But oh boy is a that Under tasty but I think the everyone get's their Over as BYU makes it competitive.


  22. #74117
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  23. #74118
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    was thinking
    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:55 PM.

  24. #74119
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    im winning eating masala while you gonna lose the dolla
    Indeed.

    I haven't eaten yet, missed dinner and am eating late.

  25. #74120
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    forgot i sprinkled ucla under 63 as well, another win for the king


  26. #74121
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  27. #74122
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  28. #74123
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    Here's the Upset basket. Honestly, I am happy that we are about even after week 1. I do believe that with all these funds there will be an early struggle. If that struggle means even or just less, then I will take it.

    I am optimistic here.

    Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML
    per bet Line Closer? Average
    30-Aug KENNESAW ST +130 -1 120 Y 0.10
    UC DAVIS +120 1.2 120 PUSH 0.00
    1-Sep MARSHALL +120 1.2 -102 Y 0.22
    SMU +150 -1 143 y 0.07
    MTENN ST +130 -1 134 N 0.04
    Total -0.6 3-1-1 0.09

    Still listening to that last Dead jam.

    Going to spank NCAAF with these remaining Funds, I am getting a little more organized.


  29. #74124
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    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after 229 plays, SBR prices, links, etc.

    Got blanked today. It has happened before. Wait until you see the graph of results. That's the cool part.

    1-Sep PIT +126 -1
    CLE -115 -1
    BAL -112 -1
    MIN/TEX UNDER 10 (+100) -1
    SEA/OAK UNDER 8 (-115) -1
    Sat -5
    Week 1 3.64
    Week 2 4.73
    Week 3 -5.88
    Week 4 2.15
    Week 5 1.32
    Week 6 -1.04
    Mon 3.09
    Tue 0.96
    Wed -1.56
    Thu 1.24
    Fri 3.46
    Total 7.11


  30. #74125
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    The Totals record is in the Total Return thread but here's the ATS/ML Fund.

    Early season weakness but, could see it dip 7 or 8 units, maybe more, before coming back, could see it come back...

    Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML
    ATS per bet Line Closer? Average Average
    0-1 30-Aug WAKE -6.5 (-105) -1 -7.5 Y 1
    1-Sep MIA (OH) -125 -1 -110 N 0.15
    0-2 SMU +3.5 (-109) -1 3 Y 0.5
    1-2 WASH ST -3 (-103) 0.97 3 PUSH 0
    MICH -130 -1 -151 Y 0.21
    1-2 Total -3.03 3-1-1 0.5 0.18



  31. #74126
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...The KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund will consist of market reads based on the action we've seen during the day...

    ...The first play in this fund is BYU +10 (-104) over Arizona.
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...These plays are the fruits of the labor of the war room...

  32. #74127
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The Under might be the best play there. Almost made it a Market Read but shouldn't try for both.

    Tonight we seek the spread.

    But oh boy is a that Under tasty but I think the everyone get's their Over as BYU makes it competitive..
    Under looking good here, bring the sharks out for the spread. Who scored first? Oh yeah, BYU.

    Swimming with sharks.


  33. #74128
    turtledoves
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    got some az live including 1h spread

  34. #74129
    turtledoves
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    From some reddit guide:

    You almost certainly don't need a "gaming" keyboard: These brands tend to be overpriced, low build quality, and have gaudy LEDs and plastic strapped all over the place. You may like this, but you can achieve the same look with a better built keyboard at a similar price. Brands like Razer are the worst about this. Keyboards like the POK3R, Ducky, etc. have similar features (backlighting, customization) and are of generally higher quality. Also, once you want a custom keycap set, many gaming boards will require child sets (more $), or simply not be compatible with the set.

    gonna buy a mechanical keyboard myself soon, you can put on different switches that are different loudness/feel.

    https://mechanicalkeyboards.com/shop/index.php?l=product_detail&p=3900


    Last edited by turtledoves; 09-01-18 at 11:30 PM.

  35. #74130
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    i have 1 horizontal 27" 1440p, 1 vertical 24" 1080p, big screen tv ahead to left. monitors are dell ultrasharps. also have a ball jar.

    text looks a little small but you can adjust global zoom to 125% in Windows

    windows snap (Windows Key + Left Arrow, etc) also helps for working on big monitors like a 42". you don't need to expand a window to full screen, you can snap it to sections of the screen. many people who have big monitors like that are not expanding the window to the whole screen
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