1. #1
    MrSink
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    Doug vs dneg challenge

    Anyone heard about that ? Odds posted already . Your thoughts ?

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    I haven't heard about it. A few basic thoughts:

    1) By all accts, both are financially secure. Dneg has said for a while that he did very well in poker (maybe years ago more than recently). Polk had a huge score winning High Roller ($3.7Mill) in 2017, wonder how much of that risk he held himself.

    2) In terms of skill, I've always thought of Dneg as more of an ABC player. My view is that he doesn't get out of line too much.

    Polk, of course, is a bluffer. How do u counter that?

    Most interesting hand Polk was involved in has to be the 2017 semi-bluff vs Martin Jacobsen (in above-referenced tournament). I still don't know how Jacobsen folded top-pair w/ a flush-draw on turn. At a minimum, he's 90-cents on the dollar.

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  3. #3
    Crusherrr
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    Over 25k hands I'd set the line as Polk -5000. It's that much of a lock it's not even funny.

    While Polk has been out of the game for years he was one of the best HU poker players in the world. I'm shocked DNegs even agreed to this. Polk actually may end up winning 40bb/100 +

    Where are odds posted? Ill max bet Polk for my entire net worth. Edit: I see it's on Timex site but no USA wagers allowed.

    At 10bb/100 Polk would win $1,000,000.
    Last edited by Crusherrr; 07-30-20 at 10:43 AM.
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  4. #4
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusherrr View Post
    Over 25k hands I'd set the line as Polk -5000. It's that much of a lock it's not even funny.
    While Polk has been out of the game for years he was one of the best HU poker players in the world. I'm shocked DNegs even agreed to this. Polk actually may end up winning 40bb/100 +

    Where are odds posted? Ill max bet Polk for my entire net worth. Edit: I see it's on Timex site but no USA wagers allowed.
    At 10bb/100 Polk would win $1,000,000.

    Been expecting this for awhile - surprised it didn't happen earlier. Way Polk has called him out, figured a challenge of this nature would have occurred years ago.

    As for Negreanu agreeing to it, not that surprised. Often times things of this nature, even when people know they are almost certainly an underdog, they feel their ego is at stake. He once also said he believed he could beat the highest NL games online even though he had little experience playing them, and those who do play them consistently have devoted years to mastering trying to beat that particular game.

    Again, given what an "ambassador" he sees himself as, I think he feels compelled to say things like that/accept challenges of this nature even if he knows it's not true/that he's likely to lose - after all what would his fans say about him if someone very publicly challenged him, and he refused?
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  5. #5
    Crusherrr
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArunSh View Post
    Been expecting this for awhile - surprised it didn't happen earlier. Way Polk has called him out, figured a challenge of this nature would have occurred years ago.

    As for Negreanu agreeing to it, not that surprised. Often times things of this nature, even when people know they are almost certainly an underdog, they feel their ego is at stake. He once also said he believed he could beat the highest NL games online even though he had little experience playing them, and those who do play them consistently have devoted years to mastering trying to beat that particular game.

    Again, given what an "ambassador" he sees himself as, I think he feels compelled to say things like that/accept challenges of this nature even if he knows it's not true/that he's likely to lose - after all what would his fans say about him if someone very publicly challenged him, and he refused?
    He's going to be embarrassed. I guess it just seems silly to me that he would accept. He has nothing to prove and nothing to gain. But he will almost certainly lose $1m +
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  6. #6
    ArunSh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusherrr View Post
    He's going to be embarrassed. I guess it just seems silly to me that he would accept. He has nothing to prove and nothing to gain. But he will almost certainly lose $1m +
    Yeah, it's tricky. Without knowing exactly what's going on in his mind, hard to assess. Perhaps he really believes that he might have a good chance to win/thinks he's a favorite. I really have no idea.

    If, as you suggest, he's a huge underdog (which I tend to believe as well) and knows it, yes does seem silly. He might satisfy his ego initially by not backing down to the challenge, but when he loses, it will be even worse for him indeed.
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  7. #7
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Would like to know how many Blinds deep they're playing. How many rounds, etc?

    Poker in the basic form is never supposed to be far off a 50/50 game, in the short-run. My point is that even over several 100 hands, it's hard to demonstrate skill advantage. I wouldn't view a one-day event as an all-telling demonstration of skill.

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  8. #8
    Crusherrr
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Would like to know how many Blinds deep they're playing. How many rounds, etc?

    Poker in the basic form is never supposed to be far off a 50/50 game, in the short-run. My point is that even over several 100 hands, it's hard to demonstrate skill advantage. I wouldn't view a one-day event as an all-telling demonstration of skill.
    Rumor is 25k hands. I'd guess 100bb deep+

    Doug is -300 ish favorite now. Still massive value to be had at that price
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  9. #9
    MrSink
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    yep , saw only on timex website . all battles like this one is great for poker so that top priority and I will definetely follow closely for pure entertainment value . thanks for stoping by and sharing few words

  10. #10
    rm18
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    Polk was playing low stakes heads up on wsop.com for bankroll challenge was not doing that well. He has a good feel for the game but his ranges are too wide opening almost atc and calling 4 bets with like K6s type hands. Also he doesn't really play anymore I think he is a small fav.
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  11. #11
    Crusherrr
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    Polk was playing low stakes heads up on wsop.com for bankroll challenge was not doing that well. He has a good feel for the game but his ranges are too wide opening almost atc and calling 4 bets with like K6s type hands. Also he doesn't really play anymore I think he is a small fav.
    That's because rake makes it almost impossible to win at the micros until you hit 100NL. He completed the $100 to $10,000 bankroll challenge. It just took a while until he could move up to where the rake didn't eat him alive.

    Even being out of the game he's a massive massive favorite. Daniel has virtually never played HU. It's a totally different game and Dnegs will have major leaks that Doug will exploit.
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