Am a little bit choked. I capped these games a few hours ago, and the lines have changed a lot (in a bad way!)
Karjakin – Jakovenko (NO Draw)
Karjakin often plays pretty quiet chess, and I picked him to draw his last 2 rounds. Even though his round 3 game was a draw, it was a sharp game and he did not avoid complications. The tournament is taking place in his home country, so he probably does not want to just draw his way through. I missed that when I capped round 2, predicting a draw, but he came out with guns blazing and won. Jakovenko won his last game, but in poor form. Volokitin was playing terrible last round, and both players missed a simple combination towards the end of the game. Hence, I think Jakovenko is a big dog with black against Karjakin. -307 is just too steep of a price. I was considering betting on No Draw (hoping Karjakin will win) at +140, but it's since moved to +175 so I hit it.
Van Wely – Alekseev (No play)
Van Wely is having a terrible tournament at 0.5/3. Alekseev is doing okay at 1.5/3. Alekseev may push with the black pieces against van Wely, but van Wely plays a solid type of 1. d4 game, so it shouldn't be too wild. It may even be a quick, agreed draw (van Wely is prone to these). I liked the Draw at -149, but now it's -196. I might make a small play on NO Draw at +181.
Eljanov – Carlsen - Draw
Both of these guys won their last round, but Eljanov must be scared of Carlsen who is leading the tournament. Carlsen did not go for much with black against Svidler 2 rounds earlier, so I suspect he won't go for much with black against Eljanov. Eljanov, similarly, is not likely to try to test the tournament favorite. The Draw line was previously -134, an absolute bargain. Unfortunately I got it at -169. Still worth it, in my opinion.
Svidler – Nisipeanu (small bet on NO DRAW)
Svidler is having a crappy tournament. Nisipeanu has the same record as Svidler does, but he only lost against a very strong Karjakin performance. Nevertheless, Svidler has white. I think this evens things out, but -159(now -203!) on the draw is a bit too pricey for me. I think at +223, a small play on Nisipeanu may be warranted in case Svidler's awful play continues. At +181, I had to throw a small bet on NO DRAW.
Shirov – Volokitin (small play on Volokitin)
Shirov hates to lose, but that's what he did last round. He will be using everything he can to come back and use the white pieces to take out Volokitin who played a very poor game yesterday. The white pieces have been huge this tournament, and based on yesterday's games, everyone is in a fighting spirit. The only risk is that one of Shirov's aggressive attacks pulls him too far and he ends up losing. Unfortunately, Shirov to win is at -430, which is too pricey for me. I made a small play on Volokitin in case Shirov blows up or one of his sacrifices isn't so sound. I loved the draw, previously at -109, but now it's a pricey -150
Ivanchuk – Onischuk (Draw)
I had avoided betting on Ivanchuk games lately, but his last round game against Nisipeanu impressed me. It looks like he is starting to heat up. Onischuk is playing hard, though, and I don't think his results have done him justice. It is nuts to lay -425 on Ivanchuk, even though he is the best player in the world when he's hot. Unfortunately, he blows up a bit too often. I think Onischuk will hold him off for a draw at -116. Unfortunately I had to also make this bet at -135.
My "official bets" (not counting the small plays on Volokitin and Nisipeanu) are:
Ivanchuk/Onischuk DRAW
Eljanov/Carlsen DRAW
Karjakin/Jakovenko NO DRAW
Wish me luck!
Karjakin – Jakovenko (NO Draw)
Karjakin often plays pretty quiet chess, and I picked him to draw his last 2 rounds. Even though his round 3 game was a draw, it was a sharp game and he did not avoid complications. The tournament is taking place in his home country, so he probably does not want to just draw his way through. I missed that when I capped round 2, predicting a draw, but he came out with guns blazing and won. Jakovenko won his last game, but in poor form. Volokitin was playing terrible last round, and both players missed a simple combination towards the end of the game. Hence, I think Jakovenko is a big dog with black against Karjakin. -307 is just too steep of a price. I was considering betting on No Draw (hoping Karjakin will win) at +140, but it's since moved to +175 so I hit it.
Van Wely – Alekseev (No play)
Van Wely is having a terrible tournament at 0.5/3. Alekseev is doing okay at 1.5/3. Alekseev may push with the black pieces against van Wely, but van Wely plays a solid type of 1. d4 game, so it shouldn't be too wild. It may even be a quick, agreed draw (van Wely is prone to these). I liked the Draw at -149, but now it's -196. I might make a small play on NO Draw at +181.
Eljanov – Carlsen - Draw
Both of these guys won their last round, but Eljanov must be scared of Carlsen who is leading the tournament. Carlsen did not go for much with black against Svidler 2 rounds earlier, so I suspect he won't go for much with black against Eljanov. Eljanov, similarly, is not likely to try to test the tournament favorite. The Draw line was previously -134, an absolute bargain. Unfortunately I got it at -169. Still worth it, in my opinion.
Svidler – Nisipeanu (small bet on NO DRAW)
Svidler is having a crappy tournament. Nisipeanu has the same record as Svidler does, but he only lost against a very strong Karjakin performance. Nevertheless, Svidler has white. I think this evens things out, but -159(now -203!) on the draw is a bit too pricey for me. I think at +223, a small play on Nisipeanu may be warranted in case Svidler's awful play continues. At +181, I had to throw a small bet on NO DRAW.
Shirov – Volokitin (small play on Volokitin)
Shirov hates to lose, but that's what he did last round. He will be using everything he can to come back and use the white pieces to take out Volokitin who played a very poor game yesterday. The white pieces have been huge this tournament, and based on yesterday's games, everyone is in a fighting spirit. The only risk is that one of Shirov's aggressive attacks pulls him too far and he ends up losing. Unfortunately, Shirov to win is at -430, which is too pricey for me. I made a small play on Volokitin in case Shirov blows up or one of his sacrifices isn't so sound. I loved the draw, previously at -109, but now it's a pricey -150
Ivanchuk – Onischuk (Draw)
I had avoided betting on Ivanchuk games lately, but his last round game against Nisipeanu impressed me. It looks like he is starting to heat up. Onischuk is playing hard, though, and I don't think his results have done him justice. It is nuts to lay -425 on Ivanchuk, even though he is the best player in the world when he's hot. Unfortunately, he blows up a bit too often. I think Onischuk will hold him off for a draw at -116. Unfortunately I had to also make this bet at -135.
My "official bets" (not counting the small plays on Volokitin and Nisipeanu) are:
Ivanchuk/Onischuk DRAW
Eljanov/Carlsen DRAW
Karjakin/Jakovenko NO DRAW
Wish me luck!