Best way to go from 1 to 5 quick

[WileOut]

Thanks for this info ganch. Makes sense to split it up and give myself more than one shot.

So you are saying to split the original BR into say 4 then start betting dogs with each 1/4th. If I hit one, then bet a bigger dog and so on? If one goes bust I'm still in the game. I have to go bust 4 times this way.

One question, why would it be better to bet smaller dogs at first and larger dogs towards the end?

[WileOut]

dodif what is the event? French open came to mind but I think thats further out.

[dodif]

Thanks for this info ganch. Makes sense to split it up and give myself more than one shot.

So you are saying to split the original BR into say 4 then start betting dogs with each 1/4th. If I hit one, then bet a bigger dog and so on? If one goes bust I'm still in the game. I have to go bust 4 times this way.

One question, why would it be better to bet smaller dogs at first and larger dogs towards the end?

i am not offering one shot

i am offering one event with 2-3 shots. 1 shot to meet ur goal. 2 shots to make back the initial 1.

dodif got this

[dodif]

dodif what is the event? French open came to mind but I think thats further out.

i've already said way to much. i have been looking forward to this for a month. just message me next monday or tuesday.

[Ganchrow]

Thanks for this info ganch. Makes sense to split it up and give myself more than one shot.

Just realize that using this method you'd be raising your win probability from 19.09% to maybe 19.18%.

So you are saying to split the original BR into say 4 then start betting dogs with each 1/4th. If I hit one, then bet a bigger dog and so on? If one goes bust I'm still in the game. I have to go bust 4 times this way.

No. If you hit one you stop.

Using this method (and betting at odds of +1600, +1700, +1800, and then +1900) then assuming 4.55% juice, your win probability would be about 19.16%.

One question, why would it be better to bet smaller dogs at first and larger dogs towards the end?

Just so that each subsequent victory covers your previous losses. Another way to do it would just be to bet solely at one price but to increase your bet amount after each loss.

[Ganchrow]

But just remember that this assumes paying the vig (with no edge) each time.

If you had an advantage (and time weren't of the essence) then your best bet would be to use Kelly.

[HedgeHog]

12 days to the Preakness. I think Dodif is trying for another trifecta.

[HedgeHog]

i've already said way to much. i have been looking forward to this for a month. just message me next monday or tuesday.

That's something I never thought you'd post!

Stop. HH time!

Seriously, your Week plus time frame points toward the Preakness (right?). Way to go on the Derby!

[dodif]

12 days to the Preakness. I think Dodif is trying for another trifecta.

wcp for life

[twitchy]

twitchy what happened to your PM's? If you were spamming people I do not pay for touts, never have paid a cent to one and never will. A fool I am not. But if you are offering sound advice then let me know and I will post email.

LV, so you are thinking I should pick a big dog and let it all ride. That takes balls man. As for the juice comment, remember that juice doesnt really factor much into this particular situation. 3 straight bets will get me there with or without juice. I will be placing the straight bets or ML bets at matchbook too so juice is minimal. Thanks for the advice I have a big decision to make. 29 days left.

nah i dont want your money i just wanna have a PRIVATE convo.... i got it taken away day one when i posted my AIM ADRESS haha

[twitchy]

Email me.... Jhellerud@yahoo.com

[HedgeHog]

Wileout is being circled by the buzzards. As Ganch explained, you do realize that you have less than a 20% chance of succeeding?

[WileOut]

Wileout is being circled by the buzzards. As Ganch explained, you do realize that you have less than a 20% chance of succeeding?

I'm not being circled by buzzards. I already stated that if I lose the original amount it means nothing as far as my BR is concerned. I'm doing this for somebody else who needs to turn some money into a lot more (5 times more) in about a month. She has never gambled before. She knows that I do gamble. She asked for me to take a shot for her. I agreed. I realize the odds are against me and so does she. Loans are not an option.

Thanks for all the advice fellas.

[Ganchrow]

Here's an interesting question that I'll pose to the table.

Let's say you had time to no more than place 5 bets, each with edge of 10%, at any odds you liked.

What would be optimal strategy to maximize the probability of quintupling the original stake?

[WileOut]

No idea how to even approach the question above. But here is a stab in the dark.

Make 1st bet of +1000. If that hits make 2nd bet of +1000. But if 1st bet misses make second bet of +2000. If then the 2nd also misses, make third of +3000. Etc.?

I'm sure thats not close.

[avssakic]

dodif, maybe Willie should visit the NASCAR forum?

guarnteed money in there...

[dodif]

Bet Carl Edwards this weekend

[Ganchrow]

No idea how to even approach the question above. But here is a stab in the dark.

Make 1st bet of +1000. If that hits make 2nd bet of +1000. But if 1st bet misses make second bet of +2000. If then the 2nd also misses, make third of +3000. Etc.?

I'm sure thats not close.

Example with 4 bets:

Make 1st bet of ¼ unit at +1600. If that hits then stop.

If that misses then make 2nd bet of ¼ unit at +1700. If that hit then stop.

If that misses then make 3nd bet of ¼ unit at +1800. If that hits then stop.

If that misses then make 4nd bet of ¼ unit at +1900. If that hits then stop.

If that misses, you're broke.

With vig of 4.545% you'll have a 19.16215% win probability.

Note that holding bet size won't in general provide you the highest possible win probability for a given # of bets. For example with 4 bets, holding payout odds constant (at roughly +1743) you can increase your win probability to about 19.16224% (with bet sizes of 22.95%, 24.27%, 25.66%, 27.13%).

Also note that that the more bets you're willing to place the (marginally) higher your probability of winning becomes. With 100 bets of exactly 1 10 units each your win probability would jump to 19.18356%.

[dodif]

i did +8 units last weekend wile. I am by far the best. If u have been following my picks last weekend then that 5 has already been made. I have a trifecta for the preakness which I will give it you on raceday but thats not the event i am talking about. I wont be posting the trifecta here because too many fags will play it. I dont want dodif hater making money off my picks. So just pm me before the preakness and I'll send u the picks.

While the math posts are helpful i hope u realize guys like durito can pretend to know all the math and bullshit they want. Bottomline is durito cant pick winners and that doesnt win $. In the end you need winners and thats what i provide.
The best

[dodif]

dodif, maybe Willie should visit the NASCAR forum?

guarnteed money in there...

yeah we win a ton of cash there. its the one forum that makes money here.

[WileOut]

Where did you post your picks last weekend? Nascar forum?

[dodif]

Where did you post your picks last weekend? Nascar forum?

with all due respect, obviously

[rake922]

updates?

[WileOut]

Failed attempt sir. Ended up all in on the Braves playing a road game. Need I say more?