Story in the news about professional gambler who uses computers to predicts games

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  • BAUS
    SBR MVP
    • 08-10-05
    • 2191

    #1
    Story in the news about professional gambler who uses computers to predicts games



    Charles Allen looks like an everyday business executive.

    He works in a high-rise office with leather chairs, expensive paintings and a breathtaking view of the big city.

    Wearing a sharp suit, the 40-something family man shoots the breeze with the employees of his reputable company.

    But come back at night and everything changes.

    There's a full slate of NBA games ahead - and Allen has turned from daytime entrepreneur into gambling tycoon.

    The massive office floor is nearly deserted, but Allen's corner office is packed with tension.

    He has nearly $15,000 riding on this Cleveland-Minnesota nail-biter, but that's just a drop in the bucket.

    He has $100,000 spread across seven games tonight.

    "LeBron James nails a three-pointer," he blurts in complete frustration as he watches the scoreboard change on his computer screen. "LeBron, you cockroach!"

    Allen needs the game to fall under the total-point line.

    It's going to be a wild night.

    Almost 30 years after making his first bet in Grade 9, Allen has become one of the biggest sports gamblers in North America. He wagers $2 million a month. From NBA to NFL to CFL, he hammers transactions from several accounts through legal online sports books around the world - from Central America to Asia.

    "I use eight to 10 different books," he explained. "You're always looking for the very best line and different sites have different lines. You're always looking for the most value."

    Just 9.2 seconds remain in the Cleveland-Minnesota tilt. Allen needs the game to stay under 183 points, but Ricky Davis ruins it with one sweet stroke from downtown.

    The three-pointer pushes the game to 184, meaning he has lost $15,000. But there are still games left on the docket tonight.

    Allen, not his real name, was unlucky with the first bet he ever made. "I bet $2 that the Minnesota Vikings would beat the Dallas Cowboys," he remembered. "Dallas threw a touchdown late in the game on a Hail Mary pass and I lost. I cried."

    But it didn't curb his desire to predict sports.

    "When you are a little kid, you're cheering for your favourite team," he continued. "But when you're older, you're saying, 'What team should win?'

    "When you're much older, you're saying, 'What team has the better value?' "

    CUT OFF BY BOOKIES

    Allen graduated from junior high and eventually graduated to bookmakers. His love of sports was increasing, but his relationship with bookies didn't last.

    "A few years down the road, they cut me off," he said.

    "I was pretty good, and bookmakers don't like people who are successful."

    It was time to find a new way of doing business.

    "For about 20 years - since the '80s - I had this vision of building a company that used mathematics and modelling to predict the outcome of sports," Allen recalled.

    "For years I tried to figure out how I could do it, but I didn't have the resources or the information.

    "But two years ago the time was right."

    The Internet had become tremendously powerful and reams of sports stats could be found on the web.

    "I was connected with strong university people to use artificial intelligence strategies and mathematical and statistical modelling ideas," commented Allen. "It has now evolved to a point where we have very sophisticated and successful models (on sports leagues). They systematically identify edges for predicting games."

    In other words, by using years of stats and carefully designed computer programs, Allen's bank of computers spit out predictions for games being played in 2006.

    Allen needs to be right on the Pistons-Clippers game or this night will be a complete bust.

    With only one winning wager in four games so far, he needs Detroit to win by more than seven points and the game to stay below 187 points. Detroit is up by 11, but is fast approaching the over/under line.

    "This freaking game, with 49 seconds left, has to stay downstairs," barks Allen.

    The score keeps changing as the computer screen flashes with updates. The tension grows with each second in Allen's office overlooking the bright city lights late at night.

    "Detroit has to hold the ball and hope L.A. has some class and doesn't foul them," he continues. "You are down by 10 points with 39 seconds left, don't try to win a hero award, L.A."

    The computer screen freezes. The updates stop.

    "Show me something," Allen yaps at the screen.

    "For God's sake, I just want to see this game finished."

    The screen then flashes with the final update - Detroit wins 97-87. Allen wins both bets.

    Being successful is nothing new for this family man.

    During the day, he operates highly successful companies with a calm demeanour. And at night, his betting record is anything but shabby. He estimates he wagered about $15 million on sports last year, turning a profit of almost $500,000. And it's tax-free money.

    AHEAD OF THAT PACE

    So far this year, he's ahead of that pace - and it's full steam ahead. Allen will wager on almost 160 NBA games next month. By the end of the year, he will have bet $24 million on sports.

    But he won't wager a dime on the NHL. "Last year we had the strike and the data (from stats and computer programs) isn't meaningful anymore," he explained. "With the rules changing, it totally changed the scope of the teams."

    It means the NBA is his bread and butter right now - and it's a winning night.

    With Allen nailing the remaining late game on the board - Lakers-Rockets - he finishes with a 4-3 record on seven games.

    He wanted a stress-free night and 5-2 record, but he'll take the meager $15,000 profit. "If you want to be a professional sports bettor, this is what you live through."

    It will take a few hours to calm down, but he's about to take the perfect tonic. He's heading home to play online poker before getting his regular four-hour stipend of sleep.

    Tomorrow brings a new day and a new round of games.
  • BAUS
    SBR MVP
    • 08-10-05
    • 2191

    #2
    This computer stuff sounds like a load of garbage to me. What do you think?

    BAUS
    Comment
    • BAUS
      SBR MVP
      • 08-10-05
      • 2191

      #3


      Part 2 of the same story. Gambling911 owner quoted.

      BAUS
      Comment
      • JoshW
        SBR MVP
        • 08-10-05
        • 3431

        #4
        Doesn't ring true in some parts, but is tough to tell b/c that could just be the way the reporter wrote the story, they need tension.

        3% return on action is certainly possible, but 160 games a month in NBA seems high. I guess is possible, but unless includes halftimes and props would think it would be tough to do.

        Either way intersting read.
        Comment
        • raiders72001
          Senior Member
          • 08-10-05
          • 11073

          #5
          Baus- Why do you say that computer stuff is garbage? Is it just this story or the way computers are used to win?

          Lakerfan- Why would it be surprising to play 150 NBA games/month considering sides, totals, MLs and HT's that can be bet?

          I know guys that shoot for 1%.
          Comment
          • JoshW
            SBR MVP
            • 08-10-05
            • 3431

            #6
            Originally posted by raiders72001
            Baus- Why do you say that computer stuff is garbage? Is it just this story or the way computers are used to win?

            Lakerfan- Why would it be surprising to play 150 NBA games/month considering sides, totals, MLs and HT's that can be bet?

            I know guys that shoot for 1%.
            Well I specifically mention if HT would be easier to hit. With only ten books is going to be tough to hit off numbers, will be focusing when whole market is off 160 times a month on side and totals.

            Not saying not possible, just tough.

            You playing NBA this season? How many plays you put in a week/month? Of any year I played I never played more than 100 straight plays a month and that was early months, fewer after December.
            Comment
            • raiders72001
              Senior Member
              • 08-10-05
              • 11073

              #7
              Lakerfan- I can't cap a NBA game to save my life. I pick off a nice number now and then. I do play light this time of year but will fire away for bases. 5 cent overnights, 8-10 cent lines are nice. I really hope that Pinny puts up Wrigley over night totals. It's strange but they normally do it early in the season but stop after 1 month or less.
              Comment
              • BAUS
                SBR MVP
                • 08-10-05
                • 2191

                #8
                This story says this bettor uses a computer program to analyze stats for the 2 teams, then simulate 100 games between the 2 teams, then draw a conclusion. Whatever conclusion the computer comes up with is still just an educated guess. No guarantees of long term success with this thing.

                I have doubts that this program is sophisticated enough to simulate 2nd halfs.

                The whole thing just seems jazzed up for the newspaper.

                BAUS
                Comment
                • imgv94
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-16-05
                  • 17192

                  #9
                  That guy is my idol. I wanna be him.
                  Comment
                  • bookie
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-10-05
                    • 2112

                    #10
                    He estimates he wagered about $15 million on sports last year, turning a profit of almost $500,000. And it's tax-free money.
                    That's the line that tells me the reporter might not have known what he was seeing or hearing.
                    Comment
                    • Bill Dozer
                      www.twitter.com/BillDozer
                      • 07-12-05
                      • 10894

                      #11
                      I finished Baus' post in disbelief that there wasn't a product placement in the article...but wait! there is a part II.
                      Comment
                      • newb411breaker19
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 08-21-05
                        • 421

                        #12
                        raiders, i'm with you, I really don't have much of a clue when handicapping basketball. Bases are coming in what, less than 2 months! be sure to post your baseball picks this year. we could all use the profits.

                        about the computer simulation thing, theres a site called statshark.com and they supposedly simulate each game about 10,000 times. I'm not sure if it works though
                        Comment
                        • SBR_John
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-12-05
                          • 16471

                          #13
                          Its like Amway. Every 1,000,000 person you find a guy who has perfect balance and handicapping skills. He would be sucessful in whatever he did wheter it was trading pork bellies or capping cock fights.

                          My problem with this is young folks read this icredible story and think they could do that.
                          Comment
                          • isetcap
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-16-05
                            • 4006

                            #14
                            Originally posted by SBR_John
                            Its like Amway. Every 1,000,000 person you find a guy who has perfect balance and handicapping skills. He would be sucessful in whatever he did wheter it was trading pork bellies or capping cock fights.

                            My problem with this is young folks read this icredible story and think they could do that.

                            I CAN DO IT!!!
                            I CAN DO IT!!!

                            I know how to use computers. Making money is easy!!!!!!!!!!!
                            Comment
                            • BAUS
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-10-05
                              • 2191

                              #15



                              Part 4 of this series is about Calvin Ayre, the Bodog lifestyle, etc.

                              BAUS
                              Comment
                              • Relentless
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 08-23-05
                                • 176

                                #16
                                The part that really doesnt make sense is that the article says he is a family man, yet says he works all day, stays late at the office tracking the games, AND then goes home a plays poker for 4 hours. Does't sound quite like a family man. Stories like this are a dime a dozen that get perpetuate the myth of easy money out there.
                                Comment
                                • BAUS
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-10-05
                                  • 2191

                                  #17
                                  Yeah, some family man. Stories like this irk me sometimes.

                                  BAUS
                                  Comment
                                  • JoshW
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-10-05
                                    • 3431

                                    #18
                                    The 44-year-old Canadian is a self-made billionaire and is one of just two billionaires in the sportsbook industry.
                                    Is the Sun even a real newspaper? A billionaire? LMAO what a joke.
                                    Comment
                                    • datek23
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 01-08-06
                                      • 667

                                      #19
                                      There are a whole bunch of neat computer software that predicts games, In my spare time I will do some research for everyone and list all the software out there in my spare time. A lot of the programs are medicore but it is still neat to play around with them
                                      Comment
                                      • Relentless
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 08-23-05
                                        • 176

                                        #20
                                        None of those fancy computer programmers guys of the Jeff Sagarin ilk can pick a game worth a shit. Whole article is a joke.
                                        Comment
                                        • isetcap
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-16-05
                                          • 4006

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Relentless
                                          None of those fancy computer programmers guys of the Jeff Sagarin ilk can pick a game worth a shit. Whole article is a joke.
                                          I'm a TRILLIONAIRE capper.
                                          Comment
                                          • datek23
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-08-06
                                            • 667

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by lakerfan
                                            Is the Sun even a real newspaper? A billionaire? LMAO what a joke.
                                            Looks like the sun is a Online news place, not sure how popular it is, it looks decent.
                                            Comment
                                            • BuddyBear
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-10-05
                                              • 7233

                                              #23
                                              he finishes with a 4-3 record on seven games.

                                              He wanted a stress-free night and 5-2 record, but he'll take the meager $15,000 profit. "If you want to be a professional sports bettor, this is what you live through."



                                              not only is he betting millions...he is betting them juice free...this story is full of crap IMO. He is a millionaire but doesn't seem to have a computer that works....and if you are so rich why the hell are you gambling on sports to begin with. Doesn't make any sense.
                                              Comment
                                              • JoshW
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-10-05
                                                • 3431

                                                #24
                                                yeah datek, I was mainly joking. But they look to be a popular tabloid in Canada. I guess they will publish anything. I have no doubt Calvin is raking in the cash, but Billionaire? I don't think so.
                                                Comment
                                                • isetcap
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-16-05
                                                  • 4006

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by lakerfan
                                                  yeah datek, I was mainly joking. But they look to be a popular tabloid in Canada. I guess they will publish anything. I have no doubt Calvin is raking in the cash, but Billionaire? I don't think so.
                                                  Lakerfan, this is Canadian (monopoly) money, so he probably is a Billionaire.

                                                  One thing's for sure, he's definitely a Tool.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Relentless
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 08-23-05
                                                    • 176

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                                    [I]...and if you are so rich why the hell are you gambling on sports to begin with. Doesn't make any sense.
                                                    If you are making so much money off of sports, why work an office job?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BuddyBear
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-10-05
                                                      • 7233

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Relentless
                                                      If you are making so much money off of sports, why work an office job?

                                                      even better thought....the guy seemed so tense watching games on his computer too you think he would be able to afford direct TV or something where he could watch all the games.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BAUS
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-10-05
                                                        • 2191

                                                        #28
                                                        The Sun is a paper that is distributed in every major Canadian city.

                                                        BAUS
                                                        Comment
                                                        • isetcap
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-16-05
                                                          • 4006

                                                          #29
                                                          I think this about sums it up...

                                                          Times have changed,
                                                          Our kids are getting worse
                                                          They won't obey their parents,
                                                          They just want to fart and curse. Should we blame the government, or blame society, or should we blame the images on tv No!
                                                          Blame Canada! Blame Canada

                                                          With all their beady little eyes,
                                                          their flapping heads so full of lies
                                                          Blame Canada!
                                                          Blame Canada!
                                                          We need to form a full assault, it's Canada's fault! Don't blame me, for my son Stan, He saw the darn cartoon, and now he's off to
                                                          join the klan!> And my boy eric once, had my picture on his shelf, but now when I see him, he tells me to **** myself>

                                                          Well, Blame Canada!

                                                          It seems that everything's gone wrong since
                                                          Canada came along
                                                          Blame Canada!
                                                          Blame Canada! They're not even a real country anyway. My son could of been a doctor or a lawyer, it's a true, Instead he burned up like a piggie on a barbecue> Should we blame the matches? Should we blame the fire, or the doctor who allowed him to expire. Heck no!
                                                          Blame Canada!
                                                          Blame Canada!
                                                          With all their hockey hubaloo and that bitch Anne Murray too. Blame Canada!
                                                          Shame on Canada!

                                                          The smut we must stop
                                                          The trash we must smash
                                                          Laughter and fun
                                                          must all be undone
                                                          We must blame them and cause a fuss
                                                          Before somebody thinks of blaming us!
                                                          Comment
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