Pure arbitrage opportunity currently available for Superbowl XL

[Ganchrow]

VIP is offering -105 pricing and a free half point each way on superbowl sides:

PIT: -3.5 -105
SEA: +4.5 -105

Pinnacle is offering the following MOV prop:

"Will Steelers win by exactly 4 pts?"

YES: +3000
NO: -3600

As such this presents a pure arbitrage opportunity. To wit:

1. Bet 105 to win 100 on PIT -3.5 at VIP
2. Bet 105 to win 100 on SEA +4.5 at VIP
3. Bet 199.46 to win 5.54 on NO to Steelers by exactly 4 at Pinnacle

Assuming all bets go off, this corresponds to a riskless profit of $0.54 per $409.46 invested or a whopping 13.2 basis points.

[DrSlamm]

the limit at vip is 250 dollars.. doubt anyone will be writing home about the 1.50 they made

[BAUS]

Sharp post Ganchy.

BAUS

[Ganchrow]

the limit at vip is 250 dollars.. doubt anyone will be writing home about the 1.50 they made

Clearly no one's about to get rich making this bet, it's just illustrative of a concept.

Of course if one doesn't wish to pay the Pinnacle spread (and doesn't mind taking on a little risk), then one can put on only the two VIP legs. As such, assuming the 3.21% chance of exactly a 4-point margin of victory by the Steelers implied by Pinnacle, one can bump up one's profit expectancy to $1.58 for every pair of $105 bets wagered or 75.3 bps. (A 96.79% of losing $5 and a 3.21% chance of winning $200.)

[pags11]

good stuff ganchrow...

[bigboydan]

very strong post bud. did you happen to find anything else like this one on this event ?