hey bill its rami, just wanted to follow up on our conversation last week. we were talking about A) how to know when a line move is a true move and not just a fake out(ie pinnacle screwing with their vig)in other words how do you know your following the smart money B)what books to use in determining this C)WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO TAKE THE LINE AND WHY?D)what books are the best to scalp one against the other and when is the best time do this?E)how early should you start looking at line movement in respect to 1)scalping and 2)taking a wager? and last but not least their are times when smart money goes in one direction 2 or 3 mins b4 a game than all of a sudden it will reverse its direction, WHY?
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Line movement
I'm interested in people's thought on a couple questions I hear from time-to-time. For now I'll just post the questions and maybe jump in later with my theories.
1) How do you know the difference between a line movement which is a true reaction to "sharp money" and just an adjustment being made by the individual book you happen to be monitoring.
2) Do you have any personal rules regarding line movement patterns and when is the best time to pull the trigger. This can be as it relates to straight betting or also arbing.
What do you people know (or think you know) about line movement????Comment -
This is what I do, I look at the opening line and track their movement all day. If the line swings 15-20 cents (baseball) I tend to bet the opposite of the line movement. I primarly use books such as BoDog and Bowmans to track lines since alot of squares play at these books. I also rely on insider info, so I always don't use this method. As far as timing goes, I usually place all of my bets about a half hour before game time.Comment -
It has been my experience that sharp money will move the line a point or more. Public money tends to move the line in half points. I really focus on early line moves (late Sunday night and Monday). These moves will give you a good idea of where the sharp money is going.
In betting the NFL, I like to bet early in the week if I have all the info I need. One reason is because I feel those numbers are softer and if I can get the number I want, I take advantage of it. Another is that early in the week, you can find some discrepancies in the line between different books. By Wednesday, every book has pretty much the same line and they tend to stay that way until gameday, barring an unforeseen occurence.
Just my 2 cents and it has worked great for me so far when it comes to the NFL!
Senator 7Comment -
Originally posted by Mudcat
I cannot speak to Question #1 because I don't think I'm smart enough to know the difference. I will say that the volatile line differences in some baseball lines that happen 5 to 10 minutes before gametime would seem to me to be some sort of sharp money coming from somewhere. Relatively easy to arb(not huge percentages) if you know where to go for the 2nd leg.
Question #2 seems to be more of a bookie question to me. For some reason, since Canbet has come online with their new site, they seem to be very slow to reacting to the market changes. I can't explain why. So, I have been betting their favorite in baseball for the past couple of weeks and have been getting some good value with them. If I like the favorite, I keep it. If not, I'll try to arb it somewhere for a couple of bucks. Early to mid morning seems to work pretty good for some reason. I wish I knew the answer to why Canbet seems to be reacting slow to the marketplace.
EComment -
It is almost impossible to tell who is moving lines at most books. I would say at Pinny, Cris, Grande, Delmar and Hollywood sharps move lines
Most of the other books are just guys like me with no clue and just bet bigComment -
That is something I have found too. If a line travels a lot in one direction, there is usually a bounce half an hour before gametime. If it's a football line that has been moving all week, the bounce can happen a full hour before gametime.Originally posted by Illusion
I have observed this because I sometimes bet on anticipated line movement and I bet a line and then buy-back on the other side later. When deciding when to buy back, it is always tempting to wait. The line is moving in one direction and it's easy to assume it's got to keep going right up to the last second.
But it usually doesn't. Sometimes I'll buy-back and the line will keep moving and I'll feel like an idiot, but most often, I find it best not to wait too long.
Perhaps the reason there is that bounce is because of people like Illusion and me and our respective strategies.Comment
