(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 04

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to Week 3:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31347003

Getting good contributions in this weekly thread. 5-1 ATS YTD.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My Contrarian play = 266 INDY Colts +2.5
...Wrote about this play in my pick thread.
...Fields is technically the backup QB, and bettors don't seem to care. It's a 3-0 team.
...Everything has broken perfectly for the Steelers so far. Even at a low-price, the points can play b/c Boswell kicks so many Field Goals.
...A lot of early action on the Steelers. So, I'm happy to go against the grain on Indianapolis.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Cardinals -3.5 EV, my heart hopes I'm wrong but I'll go with my head. The Redskins are taking the money probably based on lighting up the Bengals D on national TV but they were whipped by Tampa, made seven trips to the red zone without a TD against the Giants (who were playing without a kicker, a huge disadvantage) and the Bengals might just be the dregs of the league. The Cards have done nothing wrong with two one score losses to good teams and thoroughly whipping the Rams. I'll wait and try to lay three even with extra juice but will gladly settle for -3.5.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cardinals -3.5 EV, my heart hopes I'm wrong but I'll go with my head. The Redskins are taking the money probably based on lighting up the Bengals D on national TV but they were whipped by Tampa, made seven trips to the red zone without a TD against the Giants (who were playing without a kicker, a huge disadvantage) and the Bengals might just be the dregs of the league. The Cards have done nothing wrong with two one score losses to good teams and thoroughly whipping the Rams. I'll wait and try to lay three even with extra juice but will gladly settle for -3.5.

Thx, Drunk. Marking down ARIZ -3.5. Good Luck on the Cards!

[Tomatero]

Cardinals -3.5 EV, my heart hopes I'm wrong but I'll go with my head. The Redskins are taking the money probably based on lighting up the Bengals D on national TV but they were whipped by Tampa, made seven trips to the red zone without a TD against the Giants (who were playing without a kicker, a huge disadvantage) and the Bengals might just be the dregs of the league. The Cards have done nothing wrong with two one score losses to good teams and thoroughly whipping the Rams. I'll wait and try to lay three even with extra juice but will gladly settle for -3.5.

Like this play, leggo

[edawg]

Cincinnati Bungles -4

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cincinnati Bungles -4

Thx, dawg. Marking you down at -4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cincinnati Bungles -4

Sort of like edawg's play. Young getting benched is pretty telling. Dalton should be washed at this age.

Good Luck on this play, dawg. There's a chance that -4 looks very cheap.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(week) 2-1 ATS

(ytd) 7-2 ATS (.778)

...Very nice call on the Bengals, edawg. Great reversal spot.
...Anti-Wash was logical. Daniels looks to be ROY.

Thanks for the contribution, guys. Very good.