(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 01

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-29-24, 12:36 PM

As a corollary to this thread, one request:
*Does anyone have a great site where they rely on the betting public % of bets?

...I used to have some good ones. Some have gone pay.
...I think this information is vital. Can yield ATS winners.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-01-24, 01:52 PM

I like this. I think this will make for a good weekly thread.

There's a saying that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Casual followers have an NFL opinion. And you hear this on the Sports Talk radio.

My 3rd bullet point would be: 3) Limit yourself to one pick per week.
...So, this should effectively be your Contrarian Best Bet of the Week.

I'm looking forward to this. On a weekly basis, I think there are natural bets using this angle.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-15-24, 06:34 PM

Bump. Looking forward to this. We had some success with this in the past.

Assuming that this thread gains traction, I'd be happy to tally Individual records. I think we should view this as a Contrarian Best Bet thread. Loose rule of one pick per week. But it's OK to post more than one (per week) if you think your plays are that good.

I'm doing my research for Week One. Will post my first pick when I feel confident about it.

**mpaschal34** · 06-16-24, 11:17 AM

Chucky….how’s it going?

I see you are getting ready for the upcoming football season. Nothing wrong with that.

Haven’t been on the site much lately, but since I was here I thought I’d say hello.

Look forward to following this thread.

Have a great summer!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-16-24, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by mpaschal34

Chucky….how’s it going?

I see you are getting ready for the upcoming football season. Nothing wrong with that.

Haven’t been on the site much lately, but since I was here I thought I’d say hello.

Look forward to following this thread.

Have a great summer!

1) Hey, mpas. How are you? I miss you stacking me at the Poker table.

2) Yes, have had fun with the NFL Contrarian thread. Have had some success with it. My view is that there is a lot of Square Money out there.

3) Been tracking my picks for Calendar Yr 2024 on the board. Knock on wood. So far, so good.

4) Thanks for the note. If you ever see a good play, feel free to chime in.

5) Was just in Vegas to play Poker. Did OK. But I bubbled out multiple times. A few hands I wish I had back. But only a few.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-16-24, 12:25 PM

Carolina+5

I think this new offensive minded head coach and better offensive weapons will get Young playing much better this year.

I like them with the points in week 1...

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-16-24, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Carolina+5

I think this new offensive minded head coach and better offensive weapons will get Young playing much better this year.

I like them with the points in week 1...

Thx, Jake. Appreciate the contribution.

We'll see how that plays out. But I like your thinking. Young was so bad...how can it get any worse?

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-16-24, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thx, Jake. Appreciate the contribution.

We'll see how that plays out. But I like your thinking. Young was so bad...how can it get any worse?

He can't get worse. They had an awful oline and offensive skill weapons last year and they improved on both fronts. Couple that with the new offensive minded head coach and a year of experience under Young's belt and we should see an uptick.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-16-24, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

He can't get worse. They had an awful oline and offensive skill weapons last year and they improved on both fronts. Couple that with the new offensive minded head coach and a year of experience under Young's belt and we should see an uptick.

I think you're spot-on. Carolina was about un-touchable for me last year. And I'm used to betting un-popular sides.

I think your reverse-logic is good here. GL.

**mpaschal34** · 06-17-24, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1) Hey, mpas. How are you? I miss you stacking me at the Poker table.

2) Yes, have had fun with the NFL Contrarian thread. Have had some success with it. My view is that there is a lot of Square Money out there.

3) Been tracking my picks for Calendar Yr 2024 on the board. Knock on wood. So far, so good.

4) Thanks for the note. If you ever see a good play, feel free to chime in.

5) Was just in Vegas to play Poker. Did OK. But I bubbled out multiple times. A few hands I wish I had back. But only a few.

1. Yep…miss those old SBR Poker days. Would love to be in a World Cup promo at this point.

2-4. Agree in a lot of square money out there. We’ll see how it goes this year.

5. My last two Vegas trips (NFL weekend and this year’s March Madness) had no poker in them. Going again at the end of August and plan to spend some time on the tables. Skipping WSOP this year because we have another vacation planned…maybe next year I’ll make it out.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-18-24, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by mpaschal34

1. Yep…miss those old SBR Poker days. Would love to be in a World Cup promo at this point.

2-4. Agree in a lot of square money out there. We’ll see how it goes this year.

5. My last two Vegas trips (NFL weekend and this year’s March Madness) had no poker in them. Going again at the end of August and plan to spend some time on the tables. Skipping WSOP this year because we have another vacation planned…maybe next year I’ll make it out.

1) SBR messed up when they removed the Poker. That was a calling card for the site. Just the right amount of motivation to attract people.

2) That is my rationale. State-betting emerged. So many of these talking-head shows, now everyone has an opinion.

5) I didn't find the Poker competition to be overwhelming. You should do fine. Try to identify Opponent tendencies. The player-type that I've had some success against is what I call the Extreme Value Bettor.

When I use this term, I'm saying that their Value/Bluff ratio is infinite! They have no bluffs. If they hit Top Pair, they bet pot. This is great information. If they DON'T bet, they don't like their hand. So, my hand is now irrelevant. I can bet and take the pot (and my holding doesn't matter).

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-05-24, 08:27 PM

Bump. Love the Contrarian plays.

One honest observation in 2024. So much focus on NFL. The lines I see are mostly sharp.

**pabonaparte** · 07-05-24, 08:44 PM

Nice&Early...Awesome!!!! Let's go ChuckyTheGoat!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-05-24, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by pabonaparte

Nice&Early...Awesome!!!! Let's go ChuckyTheGoat!

Thx for the interest, Pabo. Yes, the Early Bird gets the worm.

I'm stressing Discipline in my posts this year. I'm not kidding myself about how hard it is to get +EV.

**Tomatero** · 07-30-24, 05:12 PM

Leggo ��

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-25-24, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Bump. Love the Contrarian plays.

One honest observation in 2024. So much focus on NFL. The lines I see are mostly sharp.

Thanks to Jake for his Carolina pick. I like it.

My Week One pick = 468 BUFF Bills -5.5 1.93: 1 to win .93
...As the thread title implies, this is a Contrarian pick. Here is my anti-logic.
...So much of NFL public perception is tied to name recognition. It's as if the casual fan becomes a team Gen Mgr.
...Bills had significant player turnover in this off-season. I'm aware of this.
...The modern NFL bettor probably plays Fantasy Football. If they can't find players on that list, they de-value.
...Bills were one play away from taking out the Chiefs last year. So close, and that's on top of years of success.
...Public perception is that the Bills are a near-miss team. And now people think that window might have closed.
...This # can't be right. Milano injured, now people want to bet anti-Bills.
...QB Allen is a talent. I'm calling for breakout years from Kincaid and Ed Oliver. I'll back the Bills @ a short price.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-24, 08:30 PM

Bump! Would like to see this thread gain some traction. I'll track results, if there's enuf interest.

So far, Jake has Carolina +5...and I have BUFF -5.5.

*Carolina seems to have gained interest. People view the Panthers as improved. And it's not an overwhelming division.

*As for BUFF, I'm very happy with my -5.5. I posted my reasons. Buffalo is NOT connecting with people in the Fantasy FB world.
...The names have changed. I saw an interview where Jay Gruden muted out the pessimism. As long as they have Josh Allen, I view the Bills as being in the mix (even if the supporting cast names have changed).

**biggie12** · 09-04-24, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Bump! Would like to see this thread gain some traction. I'll track results, if there's enuf interest.

So far, Jake has Carolina +5...and I have BUFF -5.5.

*Carolina seems to have gained interest. People view the Panthers as improved. And it's not an overwhelming division.

*As for BUFF, I'm very happy with my -5.5. I posted my reasons. Buffalo is NOT connecting with people in the Fantasy FB world.
...The names have changed. I saw an interview where Jay Gruden muted out the pessimism. As long as they have Josh Allen, I view the Bills as being in the mix (even if the supporting cast names have changed).

Don't think contrarian play is carolina. Loads more money on ML on panthers and 70% plus on spread. New orleans would be the contrarian play in that game. I think everyone is thinking the same improved team. Carolina can never be trusted just my thoughts

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-24, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

Don't think contrarian play is carolina. Loads more money on ML on panthers and 70% plus on spread. New orleans would be the contrarian play in that game. I think everyone is thinking the same improved team. Carolina can never be trusted just my thoughts

I see your point, big. Key is that Jake got the early # @ +5.

As it got closer to kickoff, the market has sniffed it out. Gap between Panthers and Saints probably not that big. I'd love to be holding a +5 ticket on that game.

**trobin31** · 09-04-24, 10:08 PM

Very few over weight sides but let’s see when the retail money comes in this weekend

only recurrent narrative I’ve been hearing so far is how poorly rookie QBs are on their debuts which to be fair the data does support. But feels like I’m being beaten over the head with it at this point. The only one people seem to be comfortable betting is Bo Nix +6 bc of his experience and Sean Peyton coaching. Bears being a 4 point favorite is wild to me and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this closer to 3 by Sunday but it feels a little overwhelming at this point and I will be taking the Bears to win convincingly.

last stat I saw first overall pick QBs are 0 wins and infinite loses in their debut

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-24, 10:33 PM

Good info, trobin. Those Rookie QB stats are out there. I'm not 100% sure of the specifics.

I know that Levis had a good debut game last year. I do wonder how much those stats are baked into the #.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-08-24, 06:39 PM

*Carolina: was a good bet @ +5. They lose by 37. Maybe good value if people get off them?

*BUFFALO: -5.5 covers by the hook. Bills hang on @ the end.

Aggregate YTD: 1-1 ATS

**homie1975** · 09-08-24, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Very few over weight sides but let’s see when the retail money comes in this weekend

only recurrent narrative I’ve been hearing so far is how poorly rookie QBs are on their debuts which to be fair the data does support. But feels like I’m being beaten over the head with it at this point. The only one people seem to be comfortable betting is Bo Nix +6 bc of his experience and Sean Peyton coaching. Bears being a 4 point favorite is wild to me and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this closer to 3 by Sunday but it feels a little overwhelming at this point and I will be taking the Bears to win convincingly.

last stat I saw first overall pick QBs are 0 wins and infinite loses in their debut

1st overall picks at QB were 0-13-1 going into today ATS and 0-14 i believe SU.

bears with Caleb got the ATS W and the SU W

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-08-24, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

1st overall picks at QB were 0-13-1 going into today ATS and 0-14 i believe SU.

bears with Caleb got the ATS W and the SU W

Ya, fukin Will Levis.

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-08-24, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Ya, fukin Will Levis.

And the colts

u think I would get one of those

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-08-24, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

And the colts

u think I would get one of those

These games are so tight, Juan.

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-08-24, 07:00 PM

Yup and get used to it

**Optional** · 09-09-24, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

So much focus on NFL. The lines I see are mostly sharp.

Still feel this way?

Some look like bad dart guesses in hindsight.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Still feel this way?

Some look like bad dart guesses in hindsight.

Yes, Opti, I do. I feel like most NFL are accurate +/- one point. Variance in results (although Carolina might just be that bad).

One interesting angle that I'll be observing. The Fav/Dog split:
...If you go back 20 years, I think it's fair to say that the bettors had a Fav bias. People would bet the popular Favs, and the Dogs had line value of a point or two.
...Now, I see so many videos from Wanna-be Sharps. They won't bet the Fav, they want to feel smart by betting the Dog.
...If that trend tilts too far, we can see some Favs that are priced too short. Just my opinion.

**Optional** · 09-09-24, 10:57 AM

^^^ I know I feel a bit that way myself sometimes. Prefer to find a dog than take a winner I think is a 'lock' at -odds.

One reason I am way better at motorsport betting than football I think.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Optional

^^^ I know I feel a bit that way myself sometimes. Prefer to find a dog than take a winner I think is a 'lock' at -odds.

One reason I am way better at motorsport betting than football I think.

Salud, Opti. I think it's valuable to know where the books stand on the game. What is their risk?

I mentioned yesterday that the books were tilted heavy to the Texans. That would be what I'd call a traditional pricy fav. Interesting that the -2.5/-3 landed just short at 2.

Some of the other games are much trickier. By gameday, I saw so many guys backing the Cardinals/Titans/Panthers. Very hard to back those dogs at the prices offered on Sunday.

**biggie12** · 09-09-24, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I see your point, big. Key is that Jake got the early # @ +5.

As it got closer to kickoff, the market has sniffed it out. Gap between Panthers and Saints probably not that big. I'd love to be holding a +5 ticket on that game.

would do really ? Carolina is trash

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

would do really ? Carolina is trash

Then that Saints ticket must have been sweet. Props.