1. #1
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Laying extremely exotic longshot horses - is it a good strategy or not?

    I think I should have written a blog about this, in 2018 I've already started this thread:

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...12-2018-a.html

    But ever since I got burned there I stopped betting on SA races (SA = South Africa) and I also stopped it with Singapore when "King of Thieves" 300 to 1 - won the race and had cost me a lot ... since then it's only AU & UK races for me, with NZ & IE as well.

    So let's move fwd. When you search the Internet for "Strategy for laying horses" you mainly come across websites that have a sales pitch or some people discussing strategies of laying horses with even odds, or at most 20-50 SP price. (SP price is the price that got fixed for a specific horse before the race has started).

    I'm not talking about this, and I didn't talk about it back then in 2018 (at least not most of the times, unless you see an opportunity e.g. Greyhound races in New Zealand - the trainer John McInerney has so many dogs, he's literally responsible sometimes for more than 50% of the dogs who race there so if you see a 30 to 1 dog from this guy with poor form and other interesting info then you can "safely" lay this one).

    But let's talk about what I discussed so many years ago which is still relevant nowadays:

    Let's say you have a horse that is 150 to 1, or 200 to 1 or even a 80 to 1 horse that goes 400 to 1 in live betting - how "safe" is it to bet against that horse to win the race?

    Or the same can be said about greyhound races, for instance at this time of writing I'm picking this race in Murray Bridge:



    Dog #5 looks like a great underdog to lay (lay = bet against that dog that he won't win the race).

    So in the betting exchange you need to risk around 240 to 1 against this dog:



    But still - money is money, isn't it?

    Say you risk $6000 to win $25 - your odds are effectively 1.0042 which are quite extremely low odds but if you believe the market indicates the dog is a loser - so is this a good bet or not? (compare it with risking $100 to win $25 with odds of 1.25 - which is a riskier approach to grab $25?)

    There are some 100-150 to 1 horses that in the exchange get 80-160 and some 80 to 1 horses that in the exchange get 400 to 1.

    I'm talking about these 400 to 1 ... and yes, I am fully aware of stories like this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...n-horse-racing

    Unfortunately along the way there is a risk you might lay one of these horses which strike a huge surprise - however you can go months or even years without striking something like this and based on my calculation if you take a $6000 bank, making $100/day (you can easily grab much more) then within 2 months you can return your "investment" - is it risky? of course it is!

    However, I'm just giving some food for thoughts here.
    I'd be happy to hear what you think about all this?

  2. #2
    Vyasports
    check raise re-raise all-in
    Vyasports's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-19
    Posts: 4,999
    Betpoints: 1146

    Good write up.

    1) Do you have a plan B; in case an extreme underdog wins?

    2) Why don't you try this strategy with the favs? Risking less; we've seen a lot of false favs; or fading the public....
    Points Awarded:

    arie1985 gave Vyasports 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  3. #3
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by Vyasports View Post
    Good write up.

    1) Do you have a plan B; in case an extreme underdog wins?

    2) Why don't you try this strategy with the favs? Risking less; we've seen a lot of false favs; or fading the public....
    1) Yes, deposit more lol. If your plan is to do this on a day to day basis without breaks, but it could take lots of your time if you're doing more than 2-3 races per day. If you only do 2-3 per day then yes - you could be good, and you might even "skip" on those extreme underdogs.

    2) I don't like laying the favs, they win a lot, but if you have a fav you truly like to lay (as you call him a "false fav") then go for it, but I couldn't build any strategy with this approach.

  4. #4
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Take Scone in 2 minutes from now - surely one of these would be a great lay, maybe even 2-3 of them ... with a bank of $6000 you can "secure" yourself a nice return of $30 - $60 just from one single race like this:


  5. #5
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Take Scone in 2 minutes from now - surely one of these would be a great lay, maybe even 2-3 of them ... with a bank of $6000 you can "secure" yourself a nice return of $30 - $60 just from one single race like this:

    Profit of €48.50 from this race alone:


  6. #6
    Easy-Rider 66
    Back at Roadhouse got some Bungalow's
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 27,271
    Betpoints: 217

    I don't know OP. But I will say no way I am risking 6K to win $25. Good luck in your travels thru the laying of ponies.

  7. #7
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 50,029
    Betpoints: 617

    Same as anything. If your capping says the odds are better than fair value, then it should work.

    But betting no-hopers you are 'sure' will lose without regard to the odds being value or not is a recipe for losses.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/29/2021

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017


  8. #8
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 50,029
    Betpoints: 617

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Take Scone in 2 minutes from now - surely one of these would be a great lay, maybe even 2-3 of them ... with a bank of $6000 you can "secure" yourself a nice return of $30 - $60 just from one single race like this:

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Profit of €48.50 from this race alone:

    I see one of your potential longshot lays came 2nd by a short nose at 80/1

    That should tell you how dangerous it is to lay longshots at a low tier country track mid-week.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/29/2021

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017


  9. #9
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 377,016
    Betpoints: 872

    A few long shots will kill you why even do it?

    Invest long term stock market instead 1000000000000x better

  10. #10
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Same as anything. If your capping says the odds are better than fair value, then it should work.

    But betting no-hopers you are 'sure' will lose without regard to the odds being value or not is a recipe for losses.
    Totally agree, well said.

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I see one of your potential longshot lays came 2nd by a short nose at 80/1

    That should tell you how dangerous it is to lay longshots at a low tier country track mid-week.
    I didn't lay it because it was 100ish in the exchange - as I said 80/1 SP is meaningless without looking at the exchange. The exchange told me it wasn't a safe horse to lay so as you can see I didn't touch it. Yes, I followed this race, wasn't surprised seeing it hitting 2nd place, one way or another it was irrelevant to me as I didn't pick it.
    Points Awarded:

    Optional gave arie1985 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  11. #11
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    A few long shots will kill you why even do it?

    Invest long term stock market instead 1000000000000x better
    You can do both.
    Stocks can yield nicely 10% - 15% per annum, this is different - here you can get XXXX% per annum or lose it all of course.

  12. #12
    gauchojake
    I was A Teenage Anarchist
    gauchojake's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-17-10
    Posts: 29,731
    Betpoints: 1840

    Mods please hide this thread from otters

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  13. #13
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Mods please hide this thread from otters
    Who's otters?

  14. #14
    trytrytry
    All I do is trytrytry
    trytrytry's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-13-06
    Posts: 23,130
    Betpoints: 175151

    interesting thread in many ways here. thanks
    Points Awarded:

    arie1985 gave trytrytry 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  15. #15
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Take a look at UTAB, this horse #9 pays out only 98 to 1 there:



    But if you look at the exchange it was 300 to 1 and more:



    For me that's value, for others it may sound like a huge risk.
    I'm showing this to exemplify the odds at the bookmakers are not necessarily with the right value.

    In fact you may find a 120 to 1 in the exchange which is 100 to 1 in the bookies - that horse you may want to BACK (bet on the horse to win) because the value is with the backer and not the layer.

  16. #16
    Easy-Rider 66
    Back at Roadhouse got some Bungalow's
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 27,271
    Betpoints: 217

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Who's otters?
    he is a gambler and loves the action and rush

  17. #17
    WireWire
    nOn PrO bRoKe DiK
    WireWire's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 678
    Betpoints: 2798

    ..............
    Last edited by WireWire; 09-26-21 at 01:59 AM. Reason: F UP

  18. #18
    WireWire
    nOn PrO bRoKe DiK
    WireWire's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 678
    Betpoints: 2798

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I see one of your potential longshot lays came 2nd by a short nose at 80/1

    That should tell you how dangerous it is to lay longshots at a low tier country track mid-week.
    That's what the place bet is for.

  19. #19
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 50,029
    Betpoints: 617

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Take a look at UTAB, this horse #9 pays out only 98 to 1 there:



    But if you look at the exchange it was 300 to 1 and more:



    For me that's value, for others it may sound like a huge risk.
    I'm showing this to exemplify the odds at the bookmakers are not necessarily with the right value.

    In fact you may find a 120 to 1 in the exchange which is 100 to 1 in the bookies - that horse you may want to BACK (bet on the horse to win) because the value is with the backer and not the layer.
    An Aussie Class 1 race at a country track like Bathurst, would scare me trying to cap for longshot lays.

    I know you are not risk averse obviously, but Scone and Bathurst are pretty out of the way places.


    Doing it on Wednesdays and Saturdays in Australia would be best I think. The classier horses run those days usually.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/29/2021

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017


  20. #20
    DrunkHorseplayer
    Redskins forever
    DrunkHorseplayer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-10
    Posts: 5,580
    Betpoints: 11695

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Let's say you have a horse that is 150 to 1, or 200 to 1 or even a 80 to 1 horse that goes 400 to 1 in live betting - how "safe" is it to bet against that horse to win the race?
    If you lay 400-1 against horses that are around 100/200-1 you're going to get burned. It's like martingaling in roulette; most of the time you'll win but there WILL be that one time that you lose all your profits plus a shitload. Stay the fukk away.

  21. #21
    rm18
    Update your status
    rm18's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-20-05
    Posts: 22,319
    Betpoints: 4550

    This can be a good scam to get comps but in terms of actual money not a good idea

  22. #22
    littlekona
    littlekona's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-15
    Posts: 5,089
    Betpoints: 2571

    only lay strategy that works is finding bad favorites. Anything over 10-1 is very risky I try to stick with horses under 5-1 lower the better. Ari knows what can happen laying 100-1 shots. here are my graded plays today so far as examples as you can see im better layer

    [ Horse Racing - ] Ffos Las 26th Sep 1m Hcap: Hurricane Helen back 26.09.2021 10:15 26.09.2021 10:20 3.05 50.00 50 -50.00 26.09.2021 10:18 lose
    [ Horse Racing - ] Ffos Las 26th Sep 1m Hcap: Hurricane Helen back 26.09.2021 10:15 26.09.2021 10:15 3.1 50.00 0 0 26.09.2021 10:15 refund
    [ Horse Racing - ] Curragh 26th Sep 1m4f Hcap: Moon Daisy back 26.09.2021 10:06 26.09.2021 10:12 3.7 43.65 43.65 -43.65 26.09.2021 10:10 lose
    [ Horse Racing - ] Epsom 26th Sep 1m Hcap: Neptune Seas lay 26.09.2021 09:56 26.09.2021 10:03 2.64 55.00 55 55.00 26.09.2021 10:01 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Ffos Las 26th Sep 2m Hcap: Nadein lay 26.09.2021 09:44 26.09.2021 09:52 2.12 136.00 136 136.00 26.09.2021 09:50 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Curragh 26th Sep 2m Grp 3: The Mediterranean back 26.09.2021 09:35 26.09.2021 09:42 2.24 47.00 47 -47.00 26.09.2021 09:40 lose
    [ Horse Racing - ] Epsom 26th Sep 1m4f Hcap: Berrahri lay 26.09.2021 09:26 26.09.2021 09:32 5.2 40.00 40 40.00 26.09.2021 09:30 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Ffos Las 26th Sep 7f Hcap: Onaraggatip lay 26.09.2021 09:06 26.09.2021 09:15 6.4 26.00 26 26.00 26.09.2021 09:13 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Epsom 26th Sep 1m2f Hcap: Knowing lay 26.09.2021 08:50 26.09.2021 08:58 9 16.00 16 16.00 26.09.2021 08:56 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Ffos Las 26th Sep 7f Mdn Stks: Ladypacksapunch lay 26.09.2021 08:41 26.09.2021 08:46 3.75 34.00 34 34.00 26.09.2021 08:44 win
    [ Horse Racing - ] Curragh 26th Sep 7f Grp 3: Sunset Shiraz lay 26.09.2021 08:27 26.09.2021 08:34 4.2 23.00 23 23.00 26.09.2021 08:32 win
    Last edited by littlekona; 09-26-21 at 11:39 AM.

  23. #23
    WireWire
    nOn PrO bRoKe DiK
    WireWire's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 678
    Betpoints: 2798

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    If you lay 400-1 against horses that are around 100/200-1 you're going to get burned. It's like martingaling in roulette; most of the time you'll win but there WILL be that one time that you lose all your profits plus a shitload. Stay the fukk away.
    This

  24. #24
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    I got burned again, unbelieveable, this horse was 500 to 1 in the exchange and even more than that:

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-r...race-8-6100940

    That's it, I'm out of this "strategy" for good.

  25. #25
    littlekona
    littlekona's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-15
    Posts: 5,089
    Betpoints: 2571

    Its not unbelievable as its happened before to you. You can't just blind lay long odd horses you need to put in time get PP's ect. With your bank your better off blind laying the favorite for 100 and if it loses use Martingale system to next and so on since favorite win only 30-35% of time. Or do what i do put in a bit of time find bad favorites and grind it out. Someone said laying horses is like game show press your luck the whammy is always lurking its just better when it hits you if your laying a 3.0 vs 200

  26. #26
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    Its not unbelievable as its happened before to you. You can't just blind lay long odd horses you need to put in time get PP's ect. With your bank your better off blind laying the favorite for 100 and if it loses use Martingale system to next and so on since favorite win only 30-35% of time. Or do what i do put in a bit of time find bad favorites and grind it out. Someone said laying horses is like game show press your luck the whammy is always lurking its just better when it hits you if your laying a 3.0 vs 200
    Nah, it's not for me, I don't believe in laying the favorites, and honestly you can check as much info as you'd like, that horse had a poor record, ending 9th in the previous 2 races, last win on April 2020, by all means looks like a dead horse - watch the replay on Racing.com (free to watch, just need to sign up), he came out of nowhere and surprised.

    I'm sorry, if I had the belief and the faith that there is a way to make money from this - then I've lost it now, completely. I thought those 300 to 1 don't hit so often, this one was trading for 500 to 1 in the exchange, 500 to 1 ... and yet it won ... in some places in Australia it is paying 250 to 1 fixed ...

    There is no way around it, you can try any strategy of your choice but just be aware you can get burned real hard with it ... in my case the time, energy and money spent are certainly not worth it.

  27. #27
    littlekona
    littlekona's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-15
    Posts: 5,089
    Betpoints: 2571

    the problem with laying huge long shots is most of the time they have no value they probably should be 80-1 and you are laying 500-1( I cant believe I just said laying 500-1 ) The value there is on the backers side. Now on the opposite end where you find value is on a 2.5 shot who should be 5.0 Bettors migrate to favorites and then you add like a Dettori to the mix and you get a bonus on the lay side. Man I can just imagine the sick feeling watching the live odds on that 500-1 lay go down down and then hit the 3 the 2 the 1.5 the 1.01 and that feeling you must of felt. Sick.

  28. #28
    arie1985
    arie1985's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-08
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 2199

    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    the problem with laying huge long shots is most of the time they have no value they probably should be 80-1 and you are laying 500-1( I cant believe I just said laying 500-1 ) The value there is on the backers side. Now on the opposite end where you find value is on a 2.5 shot who should be 5.0 Bettors migrate to favorites and then you add like a Dettori to the mix and you get a bonus on the lay side. Man I can just imagine the sick feeling watching the live odds on that 500-1 lay go down down and then hit the 3 the 2 the 1.5 the 1.01 and that feeling you must of felt. Sick.
    Truly sick, $6000 down the drain.
    I wasn't expecting it to happen, but it is what it is.
    It's already on the "news" and you don't want it to be on the news when you lay that 500-1:

    https://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au...long-shot-win/

  29. #29
    Easy-Rider 66
    Back at Roadhouse got some Bungalow's
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 27,271
    Betpoints: 217

    That sucks Arie. can't see how you can take that risk. ain't worth the stretch (IMO). anyhow Good luck moving forward.
    Points Awarded:

    arie1985 gave Easy-Rider 66 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: arie1985

  30. #30
    BigJay
    BigJay's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-14-12
    Posts: 3,160
    Betpoints: 887

    Whatever you do make sure you don’t get the oranges or the cigar like Lilly in “The Grifters”

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P-E0TMK55mQ

  31. #31
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 377,016
    Betpoints: 872

    It’s a waste of time longshot do come in a lot

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Truly sick, $6000 down the drain.
    I wasn't expecting it to happen, but it is what it is.
    It's already on the "news" and you don't want it to be on the news when you lay that 500-1:

    https://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au...long-shot-win/

  32. #32
    littlekona
    littlekona's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-15
    Posts: 5,089
    Betpoints: 2571

    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Truly sick, $6000 down the drain.
    I wasn't expecting it to happen, but it is what it is.
    It's already on the "news" and you don't want it to be on the news when you lay that 500-1:

    https://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au...long-shot-win/


    I can just imagine the sick feeling watching the odds go down and down live....I hope this time you learned lesson Bro. Its tough and I know in your head you think its a fluke but this has happened before in posts here years ago. LAYing is tough game But you stick to disipline and lower priced runners you can win long run but you have to manage your bankroll. There are stratagies that can help in live wagering too that have very low risk. PM me sometime if you wanna chat

  33. #33
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 377,016
    Betpoints: 872

    Longshots win every single day at various race tracks throughout the world

  34. #34
    biggie12
    biggie12's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-30-05
    Posts: 12,292
    Betpoints: 153

    how many times do I have to repeat myself I own horses.. know jockeys trainers doctors etc... You can't beat the takeout... impossible
    Points Awarded:

    arie1985 gave biggie12 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  35. #35
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 377,016
    Betpoints: 872

    There is no such good gambling strategy horses

    The best strategy is no strategy
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: arie1985

123 Last
Top