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Tampa Bay at Green Bay - Pick and Write-Up
-6.3 units for the playoffs after bad variance with Mahomes getting hurt and the Saints fumble in the second half
I think the value is with Green Bay at -3 -114, risking 4.56 units to win 4.
Rodgers has struggled in the playoffs since winning the super bowl, but if you look at nearly all the big games he's struggled in since winning the super bowl, they have been on the road against teams like Seattle and San Francisco. This is the first time Rodgers has gotten a conference championship game at home since winning the super bowl.
Rodgers has always been much better at home than on the road because of how many presnap adjustments he makes with protection and changing the play, and he's one of the best in the league at making presnap adjustments, which he can't usually do on the road because of crowd noise.
Green Bay lost to Tampa Bay earlier in the year, but that was Green Bay's first game coming off a bye and they weren't sharp. Brady has struggled against every good defense he's played this year, including the Saints last week, when he barely had nearly 50 yards passing in the first half.
The Packers defense was top 5 against the pass last year and their run defense is significantly improved this year with Kirksey, they shutdown Henry, and the only game their run defense struggled significantly was against Minnesota at home in a flat spot with Kirksey out.
The Saints had many injuries with Harris getting hurt during the game, Hill out, and Thomas not fully healthy, Green Bay is fully healthy except for Bakhtari, and Green Bay's offensive line is strong even without him, Rodgers is also much more mobile than Brees and has far better arm strength.
Tampa Bay's pass rush is solid, but their secondary outside of Davis is garbage, and that's why they struggled against a backup quarterback against Washington in Heinicke, his mobility prevent their pass rush from being able to protect their back end. Tampa Bay's pass defense has struggled all year, giving up nearly 400 yards passing to Matt Ryan when he didn't have Julio Jones about a month ago, and Tampa Bay won't be able to rely on their pass rush against Rodgers and the Packer offensive line. Rodgers has also consistently been among the league best against the blitz which Bowles likes to do a lot.
Teams have also been able to run on Tampa Bay the last month of the season with their starting nose tackle vea out, and the Saints had success running with Kamara most of the game.
shopbar picks gave thomorino 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13
