2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[thomorino]

Fire Fauci is not a great message from trump considering that Fauci is trusted way more than trump. The Trumpvirus has hurt Trump....he was gonna lose anyway but this was the nail.

normal people are appalled this idiot is holding super spreader rallies during the height of a pandemic. It’s really unbelievable

Bullshit, Trump is saying we won’t stop living or live in fear because of a virus with a 1% fatality rates. None of you people on the left described the protests as super spreader events, these aren’t either.

[vitterd]

Bullshit, Trump is saying we won’t stop living or live in fear because of a virus with a 1% fatality rates. None of you people on the left described the protests as super spreader events, these aren’t either.

Actually it’s just been reported that Trump rallies have caused cases to spike every where he goes and deaths are directly related to his dopey rallies. Herman Cain is the only one we know about but there are hundred of others.

He’s ignored this virus and caused thousands to die, all because he sees wearing a mask as weak. Tomorrow is the day he pays for that.

[JohnGalt2341]

I know we've all heard this before but if Trump doesn't win both Florida and Pennsylvania his chances of winning the election are slim to none.

I took a look at 5Dimes state by state(and DC) odds and I narrowed down the 10 states that are the closest according to the current odds. Of the 41 states with odds of -350 or more Trump is winning 21 of them for 164 delegates. Dem's are winning 20 states for 229 delegates. There are 145 delegates remaining in the 10 closest contested states.

Trump needs 106 of the remaining 145 delegates and Dems need 41. Below are the 10 states that are the most closely contested and their number of delegates.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11
Florida -140 29
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20
Wisconsin -215 10

If the -350's or higher hold up, then Trump needs to win at least 6 of the closest contested states to have any chance at all. There might be a couple -350's or higher that flip but I doubt there will be many. If 5Dimes is wrong on any of the -350's or higher... which states do you think that they are wrong about? If they are not wrong... which of the 10 states above do you think Trump wins?

Update: 1 day before the election. The prices below are from Heritage.

Trump is favored:
1. Georgia -191 16
2. Iowa -318 6
3. North Carolina -111 15
4. Ohio -323 18
5. Texas -365 38

Biden:
1. Arizona -120 11
2. Florida +136 29
3. Michigan -420 16
4. New Hampshire -551 4
5. Pennsylvania -181 20
6. Wisconsin -383 10

There are some notable changes since the first post of this thread from June. But overall, it's still fairly similar. I still think Biden takes Michigan and Wisconsin(and MN) and Trump likely will take Florida.

Pennsylvania looks to be the key(stone) state here just as I suspected that it would be in June.

Arizona and North Carolina could really shake things up if either candidate wins them both.

[capitalist pig]

Why can’t they get the results in and counted on November 3rd. People had 4 years to register and had a month to either mail or early vote or vote Election Day. It’s absurd that ballots are counted after November 3rd in some states

[JohnGalt2341]

Why can’t they get the results in and counted on November 3rd. People had 4 years to register and had a month to either mail or early vote or vote Election Day. It’s absurd that ballots are counted after November 3rd in some states

Were they still counting ballots after the day of the election in 2016?

[ByeShea]

Why can’t they get the results in and counted on November 3rd. People had 4 years to register and had a month to either mail or early vote or vote Election Day. It’s absurd that ballots are counted after November 3rd in some states

Excuse me - but how is a state (looking at you, Pennsylvania - and North Carolina can try, too) supposed to cheat if they aren't given that completely unnecessary extra time?

[capitalist pig]

Were they still counting ballots after the day of the election in 2016?

Yea but a winner was called that night, just doesn’t seem that’s going to happen this time, it seems that by dragging it out is not necessary. Like I stated there is plenty of time to get your vote in on time but for whatever reason a lot of people aren’t capable of doing that

[vitterd]

Yea but a winner was called that night, just doesn’t seem that’s going to happen this time, it seems that by dragging it out is not necessary. Like I stated there is plenty of time to get your vote in on time but for whatever reason a lot of people aren’t capable of doing that

Uh there is a pandemic going on. What’s your rush? Every vote getting counted is most important.

[RudyRuetigger]

Votes need in by November 3rd


Not postmarked by November 3rd


Dems just cheating

[JohnGalt2341]

For some reason I don't see Politics available at BetOnline anymore. Can anyone see Politics at BetOnline?

If YES, what are the current prices for Voter Turnout?

[BigdaddyQH]

Trump MUST win Pennsylvania to have any chance at all. So the question is this. How badly do Whites hate Blacks? That is the bottom line.

[JohnGalt2341]

Votes need in by November 3rd


Not postmarked by November 3rd


Dems just cheating

How did they do it in 2016?

[RoyBacon]

Uh there is a pandemic going on. What’s your rush? Every vote getting counted is most important.

A pandemic, doesn't slow down leftist rioters.
Just shitcan them all. Real Americans have spoken.

[vitterd]

Votes need in by November 3rd


Not postmarked by November 3rd


Dems just cheating

A lot of those are military votes. Trump hired a hack to purposely slow down the mail and now you’re complaining about how slow the mail is? You trumptards should all punch yourselves in the face.

[vitterd]

A pandemic, doesn't slow down leftist rioters.
Just shitcan them all. Real Americans have spoken.

Yes they have. 95 million so far. They are speaking loudly.

[RoyBacon]

Yes they have. 95 million so far. They are speaking loudly.

Very loudly! Too many patriots just like 2016.

[vitterd]

Very loudly! Too many patriots just like 2016.

Trump has his retard base and it doesn’t expand. He lost by 3 million in 2016 and it will be more than double this time.

It’s retards vs smart Americans....you retards will lose.

[RudyRuetigger]

I just bought $300 more worth of shares on trump in georgia



strong polling right now

[pablo222]

For some reason I don't see Politics available at BetOnline anymore. Can anyone see Politics at BetOnline?

If YES, what are the current prices for Voter Turnout?

Right underneath football

08:00 AM	113900	Over 149½ million voters		-550
113901	Under 149½ million voters		+325
U.S. Presidential Election Props Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election
08:00 AM	113902	Over 60½ %		-350
113903	Under 60½ %		+225

[pablo222]

I just bought $300 more worth of shares on trump in georgia



strong polling right now

Seems like a lock. What was the price?

[RudyRuetigger]

Seems like a lock. What was the price?

horrible


who knows how much shit you gotta pay

bad odds

10% on winnings

5% withdrawal fee

then taxes i assume

[RoyBacon]

horrible


who knows how much shit you gotta pay

bad odds

10% on winnings

5% withdrawal fee

then taxes i assume

That's true....but...

There is soooo much free money there. I just got paid betting Avenatti would not run for POTUS. I got paid on Would Trump finish year 1? You may remember retards thought he would resign over russia!russia!rusia!.

So lot of fees but a lot of free money.

[trytrytry]

some top info here and ideas. good thread. keep it civil, overlays are the key no matter your party...

[trytrytry]

For some reason I don't see Politics available at BetOnline anymore. Can anyone see Politics at BetOnline?

If YES, what are the current prices for Voter Turnout?

seems 155 million quite possible

[Judge Crater]

Scott Rasmussen FINAL: Biden 51% Trump 44%...

[asiagambler]

[RudyRuetigger]

That's true....but...

There is soooo much free money there. I just got paid betting Avenatti would not run for POTUS. I got paid on Would Trump finish year 1? You may remember retards thought he would resign over russia!russia!rusia!.

So lot of fees but a lot of free money.

you guys must risk a shit ton


esp for promisedland to win 8k last year...i have no fukkin what what could even been wagered on politically

i mean will epstein get pardoned, easy bet


but gotta risk a ton

[eidolon]

https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2020-presidential-election-polls/

[rkelly110]

predictit.org


pay attention to the thread instead of the headlines dumbass


i just created a new account and put $500 in it


i bet all republican states and had 4.11 left over to bet

4.10 went to 10:1 odds there

fukkin clown show democrat

That's not a book dumbass!

[eidolon]

Looks solid. I would say the biggest ifs are Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

I'm sure others would want to throw in Ohio and Iowa.

[RudyRuetigger]

That's not a book dumbass!

Let me remind you of this comment:

just bet my last $4.10 on GOP to win by 30-59 at 10:1



Ive risked all 500 i deposited at that site so I am done unless i pound more beers and deposit more



Good luck

$4.10? Don't know where you bet, but the minimum at my book is $5.

You really are a fukkin idiot


I didnt say it was a book when I made the comment



Comes back full circle to you being a stupid ass liberal



Best for you to ignore and move on























































im now up to 800 risked though

[vitterd]

Scott Rasmussen FINAL: Biden 51% Trump 44%...

Wow

[ByeShea]

HUGE: Des Moines Register: Trump booming, Biden fading

The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote.


In September's Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.


The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">A L L 5 0 <a href="https://t.co/NguCuJEIKU">pic.twitter.com/NguCuJEIKU</a></p>&mdash; SirWilliamScott (@SirWilliamScot5) <a href="https://twitter.com/SirWilliamScot5/status/1323260871540432898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[ByeShea]

Scott Rasmussen FINAL: Biden 51% Trump 44%...

First, tell vitt to go upstairs for dinner.

Second, Scott Rasmussen is not RasmussenReports ... Scott himself is a Democratic pollster. Here's an article he wrote (posted today) about Trump trouble - citing a tie in Iowa ... BUT HIS PROBLEM IS that about the same time this article posted, the Iowa poll he cites calling that key state a belwether updated to Trump +8, pulling the GOP candidate with him. Biden is fading. Who could be surprised by that?

Biden is getting SMOKED right now. Florida Dem operatives are already infighting.