Question for the sharps

[newb411breaker19]

When you watch line movements, how do you determine which way the smart money is going, if its even possible at all?

[BuddyBear]

Generally.....you look at public percentages to get an idea. For example, the other day when Rutgers/ASU played, ASU opened up as 13 or 14 pt favorites and Sportsinsights.com reported almost 3/4 of all bets on ASU but the line was moving down steadily and finally settled on ASU -8.5 despite a healthy majority being on ASU. This is an indication that smart money or sometimes called sharp money (I am cautious in how I describe a "sharp" since there is debate about what a sharp really is) is on Rutgers.

Basically you have to be aware of "public teams" and when the line moves in a direction that is contrary to what you would expect it to move based on the percentages then you know that the smart money has come on the other side.

Also, be aware that this method has its limitations and there will be dry spells but over the course of a year it is a sound way to make picks I feel.

[raiders72001]

Late movement. Line move opposite of public as BB mentioned. There's one NFL game doing that this week that I mention at my site and why the smart money is going that way.

[newb411breaker19]

thanks for the help guys

[natrass]

BB, raiders .. how do you know public teams .. are these like those with the biggest following or the ones which are 'flavour of the month' in the press?

[raiders72001]

Easiest way is to go to Caribsports under players picks, wagerline and sportinginsights. Check more than one source. The best way is to go to where I post and you'll get it straight from the books.

[newb411breaker19]

so raiders, would the steelers/lions game be an example where the 'smart money' is going on the lions?

For the baltimore/cleveland game 83 percent of the public is on the ravens. But the line has stayed at -3. what does an example like this indicate?

thanks for the help

[raiders72001]

I wrote this at my site which is a great example. Smart money on Minn

Minn -4 : C Kreutz may not play. QB Grossman may not play. They don't want Grossman playing on the carpet especially if the OL isn't at full strength. The line opens at Minn -3 and the public is all over the Bears but the line moves the other way to Minn -4. Nuff said.

Carib : 76% on Bears
Wagerline : 63% on Bears

The Bears got +3 openers and now it's up tp +4.5. The line should move the other was based on public action but smart money is on Minn

12/29/2005 11:07:41 PM Chicago Bears 4.5(-102) / -4.5(-106) Minnesota Vikings o35 -106
12/29/2005 12:38:04 PM Chicago Bears 4(+104) / -4(-112) Minnesota Vikings o35 -106
12/29/2005 12:38:01 PM Chicago Bears 4(+100) / -4(-112) Minnesota Vikings o35 -106
12/29/2005 10:55:45 AM Chicago Bears 4(+100) / -4(-108) Minnesota Vikings o35 -106
12/28/2005 08:23:37 AM Chicago Bears 4(+100) / -4(-108) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 08:23:36 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+107) / -4(-108) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 06:41:37 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+107) / -3.5(-115) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 05:15:37 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+110) / -3.5(-118) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 02:19:37 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+112) / -3.5(-120) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 01:49:37 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+108) / -3.5(-116) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 01:39:36 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+104) / -3.5(-112) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/28/2005 01:33:37 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(+108) / -3.5(-116) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 09:07:38 PM Chicago Bears 3.5(+104) / -3.5(-112) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 04:20:14 PM Chicago Bears 3.5(+101) / -3.5(-109) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 03:05:36 PM Chicago Bears 3.5(-103) / -3.5(-105) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 12:49:39 PM Chicago Bears 3.5(+101) / -3.5(-109) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 10:59:42 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(-103) / -3.5(-105) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -104
12/27/2005 10:59:41 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(-103) / -3.5(-105) Minnesota Vikings u35.5 -106
12/27/2005 12:57:35 AM Chicago Bears 3.5(-103) / -3.5(-105) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 10:59:34 PM Chicago Bears 3(+120) / -3(-128) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 10:57:38 PM Chicago Bears 3(+124) / -3(-132) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 10:57:37 PM Chicago Bears 3(+120) / -3(-132) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 10:51:35 PM Chicago Bears 3(+120) / -3(-128) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 09:53:35 PM Chicago Bears 3(+116) / -3(-124) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 09:25:35 PM Chicago Bears 3(+118) / -3(-126) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 07:01:37 PM Chicago Bears 3(+115) / -3(-123) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 04:20:35 PM Chicago Bears 3(+111) / -3(-119) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 03:50:35 PM Chicago Bears 3(+115) / -3(-123) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 03:50:34 PM Chicago Bears 3(+112) / -3(-123) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 03:48:37 PM Chicago Bears 3(+112) / -3(-120) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 03:34:38 PM Chicago Bears 3(+108) / -3(-116) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105
12/26/2005 03:08:45 PM Chicago Bears 3(+104) / -3(-112) Minnesota Vikings o35.5 -105

[natrass]

I really didnt know this ... it may be different for US sports maybe. I reckon soccer lines must move far less than US sports lines.

[Patrick McIrish]

One thing to keep in mind is that it's not the amount of people on a side, it's the amount of dollars that counts when books move off and on numbers. If you want to fade the public then the "83% on Bears" is good info for that but it won't always tell you where the money is. For instance when my Pop had a little peanut stand the sharps that wanted to fade the public would not ask me which side we needed, he would ask how many tickets have you written on a side. We could have 75 people on the Bears and only 10 on the Vikes but still need the Bears. He'd want to take the opposite side based on how may tickets we wrote, not the money. Just a few wiseys can bet a lot of money compared to a boatload of squares.

It's late, hope that made sense.

[pags11]

I agree with buddy's explanation...

[newb411breaker19]

i think im gettin the hang of it now, thanx for the help