1. #1
    jjgold
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    KVB Post Your Contrarian Fund Report

    AE598-E58-B486-4264-BAE6-1-F6-B306-B7-C9-E

  2. #2
    JIBBBY
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    If I know KVB it's gonna look something like this... The spread sheet ..

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-17-20 at 06:28 PM.
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  3. #3
    KVB
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    Give me time to prepare the reports, Gold. I will link original plays.

    Thank you for the pressure during the All-Star break to get the reports done. It is next on the list.

    Please stay tuned. In the meantime, have some ice cream.



    Thank you for your patience.
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  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Lots of pussy here

  5. #5
    manny24
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    oh wow KV !!

  6. #6
    firedawg
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  7. #7
    jjgold
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    Itís a sophisticated report men

    Detailed

  8. #8
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Itís a sophisticated report men

    Detailed
    Working on it.

    All NBA Reports need to be completed before any are released. The deadline is the end of the All Star Break.

    Here's is the most recent press release regarding the reports and charts of the KVB Family of Funds, which includes a reason why it is taking so long...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post29260461

    There's a lot of negative but I can assure I will be increasing my position in the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund for the second half of the season.

    This has been a significant recent market shakeout in that "market tracking" Fund, in fact it's approaching historic, so we have a good opportunity to take advantage.
    With the exception of the NCAAB markets, we've seen historic shakeouts recently in all the market tracking Funds, from NCAAF UPSET Basket to MLB Contrarian Fund, and all have recovered.

    NBA Analysis on it's way and more on that later.

    So, in the meantime, enjoy a big sausage breakfast...

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  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Thank You

  10. #10
    KVB
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    The KVB NBA Contrarian Fund has had 103 plays so far this season.

    The Fund is 46-57, -13.46 units. The most recent summary is below, with a link to the Summary at the All Star Break...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund through 103 plays with links to each play and crude closing line comparison. The snapshot of the last summary is at the top with the subsequent plays and running numbers following...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NBA Contrarian Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    44-54 February 12 All Star Break -12.3 29-29-40 0.02
    504 45-54 20-Feb ATL +6.5 (-108) 0.93 6 Y 0.5
    512 45-55 GS +10 (-105) -1 10 PUSH 0
    524 46-55 21-Feb OKC -1 (-110) 0.91 -1.5 Y 0.5
    540 46-56 22-Feb CHI +3 (-110) -1 3.5 N -0.5
    544 46-57 UTAH -2 (-105) -1 2 PUSH 0
    46-57 Total -13.46 31-30-42 0.024


    Here's the technical chart...




    I tried to slam OKC a bit the other day, you can see I even added the ML to an open parlay trying to anticipate a turn. OKC won but, alas, the NBA is a tricky animal with a lot fakeouts before the moves.

    The truth is, we could be heading into a retraction that could last more than a season, but doesn't mean we can't trade.

    I want to add one more thing to the graph, a sort of histogram that shows a difference between the two moving averages. When it crosses 0, we have a cross of the lines...



    I want to share one more screenshot here.

    This is a screenshot of an excel spreadsheet used to make those graphs but notice the formula...
    As we are advancing the analysis, I wanted to get this at least in here at this point.

    Further anlaysis is best found in the All Star Break Summary...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...Just like every sport over the last year, the market tracking Funds have a shakeout. This is a pretty big shakeout and here's a chart of this decade, showing a potential top last year after a good decade. I'll post charts going further back, showing the "bear market" from which this chart emerged...



    While there is evidence that the NCAAB Contrarian market is pulling out of a downtrend as the NBA goes into one, we can't ignore that fact that this has been a pretty drastic drop for a market tracking Fund...

    ...At the end of the day it's tough to say what direction this market is going but I fully expect a short term recovery and intend to capitalize...
    While the rising NCAAB Contrarian market is pulling back, we still can't rule out a multi season down or sideways trend in the NBA markets. Regardless of the long term trend, we can still trade the markets to profit.

    That's the next phase of market analysis: how to profit from the fluctuating markets.



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  11. #11
    jjgold
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  12. #12
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...While the rising NCAAB Contrarian market is pulling back, we still can't rule out a multi season down or sideways trend in the NBA markets. Regardless of the long term trend, we can still trade the markets to profit.

    That's the next phase of market analysis: how to profit from the fluctuating markets...
    I've started to expand on this and add pertinent links to the trading posts.
    First, here's the latest summary of the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund through 106 plays with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison. The snapshot of the last summary is at the top with the supsequent plays and running numbers following...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NBA Contrarian Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    46-57 Feb 26 Summary -13.46 31-30-42 0.024
    529 47-58 28-Feb CHAR +13.5 (-105) 0.95 13.5 PUSH 0
    533 48-58 CLE +12.5 (-105) 0.95 13 N -0.5
    48-58 Total -12.56 32-31-43 0.028

    With two wins on the 26th, we are seeing a potential reverse here.

    I mentioned that the drop was drastic and perhaps we seea litlle sideways trade to fulfill a reversal pattern we were looking for here...
    Here is the previous summary, which contains quotes and links to the lectures on how we profit in the fluctuating markets, real time...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund through 104 plays with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison. The snapshot of the last summary is at the top with the supsequent plays and running numbers following...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NBA Contrarian Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    46-57 Feb 22 Summary -13.46 31-30-42 0.024
    510 46-58 26-Feb SA +5 (-110) -1 4 Y 1
    46-58 Total -14.46 32-30-42 0.034

    It's nice to see the Fund beating the market during such a sharp downturn, but that alone doesn't guarantee a quick recovery...



    Here are the technicals we've been working with so far and they give a little more of a picture...



    Notice the SMA 20 play crossing the Upper Bollinger band (remember the Bands are 2 standard deviations from the SMA 10), more than once, during this slide. When this happens, it's usually an indication of change that usually entails some sort of flat market into the next change, usually into a reversal.

    So the first time it crossed predicted the flattening here.

    Then the next time predicted a bit of a change as well, and now we've broken through a double bottom. With technicals like these, a reversal is usually imminent but not always.

    Here's the KVB NCAAF Upset Basket, a market tracking Fund as well. Notice in yellow, it's what we hope to see in the NBA Contrarian Fund, but notice the fuscha circle, change isn't always a reversal...



    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...While there is evidence that the NCAAB Contrarian market is pulling out of a downtrend as the NBA goes into one, we can't ignore that fact that this has been a pretty drastic drop for a market tracking Fund.

    With such a drastic drop, we can expect some sort of recovery...
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...the NBA is a tricky animal with a lot fakeouts before the moves.

    The truth is, we could be heading into a retraction that could last more than a season, but doesn't mean we can't trade...
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...
    2019 Signal Units # Bets ROI %
    sell 24.3 120 20%
    buy 6.61 120 6%
    sell 26.25 120 22%
    Total: 57.16 360 16%

    All three signals went the full 15 trades, meaning there were 120 Total 1 unit bets churned for each signal and you can see the ROI.

    Remember how that pesky Contrarian Fund fired off two straight wins after that final sell signal above? That means fading it automatically dropped our units to -29 units with the first two games.

    Funny thing though, that was right before the market shakeout and that signal turned out to be +26.25 units with a 22% ROI on the signal..
    Even if the market does reverse, it does not guarantee a full recovery.

    If we are heading into a known reversal pattern (just look how those current units hug the Lower Band then note the yellow circle in the Upset Basket chart) then I can't stress enough just how tricky the NBA can be and just how long they can stretch the pattern out, with min shakeouts all along the way....
    The NCAAB contrarian markets have pulled back and it is reflected in the NCAAB Contrarian Fund which had steadily fallen 7 units since pulling off it's 20 unit high.

    We may be seeing tha reversal in the NBA markets and if so we should not only get a trade signal, but should see the associated NBA ATS/ML Fund rise as well.

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  13. #13
    jjgold
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    This guy still posting tremendous records and data

  14. #14
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    JJ, do you understand it all?

  15. #15
    Goat Milk
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    All these graphs and models and negative units. Doesn't compare to real old school basketball knowledge. Little metrics? F no. Nerd shit.

  16. #16
    Bostongambler
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    You sent a virus, Gold. You fukk

  17. #17
    The Kraken
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    Leave it up to Jibby to sexualize a 13 year old and think sheís hot

  18. #18
    Booya711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    All these graphs and models and negative units. Doesn't compare to real old school basketball knowledge. Little metrics? F no. Nerd shit.
    Typical uneducated post...uneducated people use “nerd shit” when they can’t comprehend or begin to understand metrics. Carry on

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  19. #19
    Cuse0323
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    Good shit.
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  20. #20
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Typical uneducated post...uneducated people use “nerd shit” when they can’t comprehend or begin to understand metrics. Carry on
    So you spent all that time developing your metrics, and they're down double digit units after 100 plays? Like I said, real knowledge of the game outweights whatever statistical models you're trying to use. The lines have 90% of these numbers factored in. LT Profits has been using models based on stats for years and comes out in the negative in NBA yearly. What they don't have factored in are how individual weaknesses and strengths. Maybe if you found a way to incorporate what I know about matchups into your model, giving certain variables values, combined with your statistics, maybe then you would have something unique that could beat Vegas.

  21. #21
    jjgold
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    KVB is too advanced for most here

  22. #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by goat milk View Post
    so you spent all that time developing your metrics, and they're down double digit units after 100 plays? Like i said, real knowledge of the game outweights whatever statistical models you're trying to use. The lines have 90% of these numbers factored in. Lt profits has been using models based on stats for years and comes out in the negative in nba yearly. What they don't have factored in are how individual weaknesses and strengths. Maybe if you found a way to incorporate what i know about matchups into your model, giving certain variables values, combined with your statistics, maybe then you would have something unique that could beat vegas.
    Ahem...

    NBA 2018-19: +20.65
    NBA YTD 2019-20: +10.79

  23. #23
    jjgold
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    LT always posts accurate tracking win or lose

    KVB is more technical

  24. #24
    romecloneout
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    KVB is too advanced for most here
    Lol the guy has over 40thousand posts on an internet chat room.

    Has admitted to being stoned at his daughter's Christmas concert

    Is a wannabe tout who is to chicken shit to post any real plays. He just hid behind his "contrarian fund"

    Hes a real piece of shit. All he wants to do is drugs and neglect his family.

  25. #25
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by romecloneout View Post
    Lol the guy has over 40thousand posts on an internet chat room.

    Has admitted to being stoned at his daughter's Christmas concert

    Is a wannabe tout who is to chicken shit to post any real plays. He just hid behind his "contrarian fund"

    Hes a real piece of shit. All he wants to do is drugs and neglect his family.
    No I met the kid, legit CAT

  26. #26
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Ahem...

    NBA 2018-19: +20.65
    NBA YTD 2019-20: +10.79

  27. #27
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by romecloneout View Post
    Lol the guy has over 40thousand posts on an internet chat room.

    Has admitted to being stoned at his daughter's Christmas concert

    Is a wannabe tout who is to chicken shit to post any real plays. He just hid behind his "contrarian fund"

    Hes a real piece of shit. All he wants to do is drugs and neglect his family.
    Pretty sure heís met a bunch of guys that vouch for him being a solid dude. What about you, ever put yourself out there and met anyone here? Its ez to be toxic and troll but youíre just proving that it might be you that is the piece of shit, Keyboard Warrior

  28. #28
    CanuckG
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    So you spent all that time developing your metrics, and they're down double digit units after 100 plays? Like I said, real knowledge of the game outweights whatever statistical models you're trying to use. The lines have 90% of these numbers factored in. LT Profits has been using models based on stats for years and comes out in the negative in NBA yearly. What they don't have factored in are how individual weaknesses and strengths. Maybe if you found a way to incorporate what I know about matchups into your model, giving certain variables values, combined with your statistics, maybe then you would have something unique that could beat Vegas.
    100 plays is a very small sample size

  29. #29
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    So you spent all that time developing your metrics, and they're down double digit units after 100 plays? Like I said, real knowledge of the game outweights whatever statistical models you're trying to use. The lines have 90% of these numbers factored in. LT Profits has been using models based on stats for years and comes out in the negative in NBA yearly. What they don't have factored in are how individual weaknesses and strengths. Maybe if you found a way to incorporate what I know about matchups into your model, giving certain variables values, combined with your statistics, maybe then you would have something unique that could beat Vegas.
    Apparently all those posts went far over your head.

    LT Profits is up double digits, again.

    Those metrics that develop into the market tracking contrarian fund track the market.

    Did you happen to notice that those metrics led to +57 units in trading?

    So it's acutally +44 or so units after 106 Contrarian Fund triggers.

    Why would I want to incorporate anything you know, you can't even read and the understand the posts above?

    I bet you feel stuipid now.

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  30. #30
    KVB
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    Kraken!!

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  31. #31
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by romecloneout View Post
    ...to chicken shit to post any real plays. He just hid behind his "contrarian fund"...


    I'm too chicken shit to post any plays so I hide behind the plays I post?

    That's deep, bruh.

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  32. #32
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    JJ, do you understand it all?
    GOATMilk didn't understand any of it.

    But I don't blame him. With all that sharp basketball player matchup knowledge he harldy has time to learn to read.

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  33. #33
    veriableodds
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    another brain hemorrhage of data

  34. #34
    jjgold
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    KVB under tremendous pressure in the thread

  35. #35
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    another brain hemorrhage of data
    Just take it step by step. Each post has quotes and links to other posts with further explanations.

    There are principles being built on here that go back to 2018, hence the NCAAF UPSET Basket chart.

    It's not the hemorrhage it seems but the trading stuff is like a math class, building on earlier principles and screenshots.

    All the analysis is in the thread I've always all my plays, so readers have had to follow along.

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