KVB Post Your Contrarian Fund Report

BeatTheJerk · 06-05-21, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Might do a whole write up about how being disciplined, which is essential in sports betting, can also cost you money.

It's cost me a lot of money not betting more Montreal in the NHL playoffs, that's for sure. It's also cost me money not betting some NBA playoff games.

The grind can be bitter sweet.

This is so true. I take way too many breaks & come back in on the wrong day.

KVB · 06-05-21, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

From the charts I’m reading it looks like a good three days are coming

No plays yet but we are watching, always watching.

KVB · 06-05-21, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

This is so true. I take way too many breaks & come back in on the wrong day.

You know what I'm saying.

Or hwo about when you are betting and you just know it's a winner and you don't bet it, then it comes through.

Or, even worse, you are forced, due to discipline, to bet a trigger you just know is going to lose.

We've seen that in this very thread.

jjgold · 06-05-21, 12:51 PM

basically you can bet $1 per game and wait for a nice losing streak straight plays and then come in with your normal betting amounts after a bad streak

Almost same thing as these charts are doing

KVB · 06-05-21, 12:55 PM

Plan it how you will Gold.

I am offering something you have never seen on sports before.

Analysis and plays like you won't find anywhere else in the world, but SBR.

We're getting to vidoe time, Gold.

The next step is almost here.

Just need to keep that little red rooster in check...

KVB · 06-05-21, 01:59 PM

First play today is Texas, but it might not be the earliest play in the rotation...

Originally posted by KVB

Here we go...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

920

5-Jun

TEX +137

Backbone play.

Zona, Pit, ATL all early rotation numbers that could still trigger so we are not sure this is the bouncing play...

jjgold · 06-05-21, 02:02 PM

This thread is like a gambling Encyclopedia

KVB · 06-05-21, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

From the charts I’m reading it looks like a good three days are coming

Atlanta is the bouning play here, we are betting the bounce...

Originally posted by KVB

Here we go, Atlanta is the bouncing play today, will 2x in teh contest...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

910	5-Jun	ATL +117
911		CHI +143

Backbone play. We could see Texas comeback now.

Let's fukkin go!!!!

The order today...

910	5-Jun	ATL +117
911		CHI +143
920		TEX +137

...

KVB · 06-05-21, 06:18 PM

Fukk, we have a delay in Atlanta, on a huge play here.

Fuuuuukkkkk!

KVB · 06-05-21, 08:05 PM

Hope that delay didn't fuk us.

Atlanta took a 5-1 lead, and did not lead early.

But now it's 5-4.

KVB · 06-05-21, 11:56 PM

Here's the latest summary...

Originally posted by KVB

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund with links...

910	5-Jun	ATL +117	1.17
911		CHI +143	-1
920		TEX +137	-1

		Sat	-0.83

		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9	3.75
		Mon	-2
		Tue	1.72
		Wed	-0.17
		Thu	-1
		Fri	0.22

		Total	3.4

We got our Atlanta boost but the market did everything it could to try to take it away.

We have fallen through the SMA's and remain rangebound. It's not the first time we've fallen below them and were are still in the middle of the broader range.

The last time we fell below the SMA's, we bounced back nicely...

All we can do now is wait...

Our outlook remains positive and the last time we fell through the SMA's in this range the recovery off the bottom support line was big. Perhaps we get one off the next support line for a break out. We remain fully funded.

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KVB · 06-06-21, 12:17 AM

Some additional analysis...

Originally posted by KVB

...Talk about a convergence of SMAs. So what does this mean?

It's positive, especially if they are in ascending order. We have that thin green line SMA 50 creeping up over the SMA 100 thin black line. If it can get above, it is even more positive longer term.

But even then, we are in a SELL signal with the SMA 10 just below the 20.

For now we are testing that support line I drew and the SMA 100, we could get a bounce her for sure.

The next plays, likely tomorrow, will be very interesting. If the next play wins we enter a BUY signal, no matter the amount. If it loses, we remain in the SELL signal. Right now, the difference is -.009...

We may have fallen through support, but that thin green SMA 50 line has crept upward...

While the Atlanta win put us in a BUY signal, the very next loss put us right back into a SELL signal. So we aren't quite in ascending order.

Also, we have been here before, in this range, below the SMA's (yellow in zoom below), and we recovered. We are also pushing that lower Bollinger Band, which could push further, before another sharp rise...

Again, we wait, but could get a rise anytime...

Hopefully we avoid disaster.

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jjgold · 06-06-21, 05:48 AM

It looks like today is a big sell day for you

I think if you lose one or two more days you’re going to get a lot of discounted prices

KVB · 06-06-21, 10:50 AM

We'll see Gold, we are still rangebound.

KVB · 06-06-21, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

It looks like today is a big sell day for you

I think if you lose one or two more days you’re going to get a lot of discounted prices

On Atl, again, early and they scored first.

KVB · 06-07-21, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

It looks like today is a big sell day for you

I think if you lose one or two more days you’re going to get a lot of discounted prices

Hard to look at it that way when we talk about prices but it can be see that way. In the end, the value seems to be consisent no matter the range, it's whether or not the market wants to move into the value range to trigger a play.

The NBA Contrarian markets were depressed much of the year, not so sure we could say there was value on some of those plays, or at least more than when it's in a bull market.

Although, some were saying this Clippers line tonight was low when it came out, I had many forecasts saying the same, and we had a playoff trigger for the NBA Contrarian Fund.

So maybe there was value after all.

I know you were talking about MLB but here's the NBA Playoff record, as it is a Contrarian Fund report, with links to each play...

				1 Unit
	Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs	per bet

567		19-May	SA +4 (-101)	0
579		21-May	MEM +5 (-108)	0.93
501		23-May	ATL +1.5 (-110)	0.91
543		26-May	ATL +2 (-103)	-1
872		29-May	MIA +5 (-110)	-1
578			MEM +5.5 (-110)	-1
506		30-May	BOS +8.5 (+100)	-1
512		31-May	WAS +9 (-108)	0.93
514			MEM +5.5 (-103)	-1
574		6-Jun	LAC -6.5 (-105)	0.95

			Total	-1.28

It's a grind.

KVB · 06-07-21, 01:37 AM

Here's the latest summary...

Originally posted by KVB

Some late night bookkeeping here to end the week.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 117 plays with an ROI of 3.897% on the season so far with links to each play...

956	6-Jun	ATL +116	1.16

		Sun	1.16

		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9	3.75
		Mon	-2
		Tue	1.72
		Wed	-0.17
		Thu	-1
		Fri	0.22
		Sat	-0.83

		Total	4.56

We remain rangebound and have closed above a support line and two moving averages as the moving averages converge...

The SMA 50 is creeping up to the SMA 100, something we have been looking for for a few days now. We remain in a SELL signal as the SMA 10 declines at a slightly faster rate than the SMA 20. Here's a zoom shot...

Most certainly rangebound in many senses of the term.

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Like I said in the summary, we are rangebound in many senses of the term. Our outlook remains positive, we have still found some support for the bottom of a flag and we are currenty right in the mix with the SMAs.

Going to be interesting to see what's next. Are we at a SMA 10 resistance? Or are we busting out here?

Once again, it's a grind...

jjgold · 06-07-21, 05:57 AM

Trend looks down still early week
We fade you today and tomorrow and then a breakout Wed Son

KVB · 06-07-21, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Trend looks down still early week
We fade you today and tomorrow and then a breakout Wed Son

Did you notice that yesterday was a successful test of a second support point within my drawn black lines?

It's like the bottom of the Flag, Gold.

We are rangebound, but I wouldn't Fade anything just yet.

We remain fully funded.

jjgold · 06-07-21, 05:21 PM

Bottom Wednesday

KVB · 06-07-21, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Bottom Wednesday

Going with the Cubs here...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

901

7-Jun

CHI +107

Backbone play of course.
We are rangebound, fully funded and hard to determine what will happen next here...

jjgold · 06-07-21, 08:11 PM

I never see a big upward trend nor a downward trend Like most random outcomes also known as the stock market

KVB · 06-07-21, 08:35 PM

Random outcomes?

Surely you jest.

I am showing you something by example and doing it this way on purpose for a reason.

We came out of downtrend and turned upwards. Here's a chart going a further back. I was posting this chart when I need 100 plays for the SMA...

We are consolidating, this is the trend Gold.

A sideways market. Go over to the stock thread. More than one poster over there sees this as getting ready to break out.

What you should be asking yourself is how is this possible? We know how stocks do it, manipulation and algos setting the prices cosntantly. But how is this possible in sports?

This is real Gold, and it's something you have never seen in the world. I have been outside Plato's cave of illusion and am trying to show you what the reality really looks like, by example, real time.

Can you pick up what I'm putting down?

jjgold · 06-07-21, 08:55 PM

Point and figure charts the only ones I will take seriously right now

Where is Elliott wave principles?

KVB · 06-07-21, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Point and figure charts the only ones I will take seriously right now

Where is Elliott wave principles?

When it comes to point and figure charts we can make candlesticks here, but you don't need that at this level of explanation.

Are you kidding with Elliot wave? That chart up there shows all kinds of Elliott wave principles and my predictions around them. I could continue to zoom out, but you are watching elliot wave principals unfold real time. You just have to understand what that actually means.

KVB · 06-07-21, 09:37 PM

jjgold · 06-07-21, 09:50 PM

Where are your volume charts?

KVB · 06-07-21, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Where are your volume charts?

In FlyMe I talk about that, but, again, we have to introduce things slowly as I am teaching by example. I discuss volume quite often and there are actually several different ways to address volume, including overall market volume and relative volume of the game per day and per side of the market.

I have it, I just have to be careful just how things are given out.

FlyMe readers know all about sharon and when she has to walk through to edit things. We wouldn't want to ager sharon...

KVB · 06-07-21, 10:04 PM

If you see the chart with the Bollinger Bands you can see an SMA difference.

I was going to get into both EMA on the units chart and judging the difference slope of the that orange line, the SMA Difference. We can use different SMA's to show market direction.

A lot of ways to work with this but in only works with market tracking Funds, not just some handicapping. I have these Funds for every sport and many other ways to track the markets with charts not posted.

Although, I always encourage tracking your bets and why you make them.

KVB · 06-07-21, 10:10 PM

But what I do is so much more Gold. It's philosophy, and reality shown like you've never seen it.

YOu have to pay attention, this is knowledge for the esoteric.

Go ahead, open the "extra" box in this post, or check out the entire post...

Originally posted by KVB

...There's a very difficult and sensitive thing I'm trying to convey here and as I've said for years, it's something that is best shown by example.

KVB · 06-08-21, 12:12 PM

Here's the most recent summary and analysis...

Originally posted by KVB

Some bookeeping here.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund with links to each play...

901	7-Jun	CHI +107	-1

		Mon	-1

		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9	3.75
		Week 10	-0.9

		Total	3.56

Here's the chart, We have fallen through our SMAs and the SMA 10 acts as the resistance here.

We are still very rangebound and this isn't the first time we've fallen through the SMAs, notice that each time we've seen a decent relative move to the upside...

We are still in a SELL signal, technically and the SMA 50 and 100 creeping together, but again, notice the points at which, while in this range, it has happened we have jumped...

It's also as if we are seeing a third test of the bottom of our Flag pattern, a support line I have not drawn in black. The next play in rotatin order could be a bounce...

The outlook is still bullish despite dropping below the SMA's. The outlook is bullish both short term and long term here.

In fact, the very next play, as mentioned in the summary, in rotation order, could be winner as we are testing that flag pattern base for what looks like a third time.

A successful test and we remain very bullish. If not, we are rangebound and I do not change my outlook until there are more signs of falling though the supports of out ranges.

The rotation orders are a little jumbled today so we will look to bet the bounce, the very next play, but must be wary of trickery and a late trigger for an early rotation number.

KVB · 06-08-21, 05:18 PM

Here we are with four plays on the backbone...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked...

952 PIT +178
957 COL +170
973 WAS +207
976 TEX +130

Backbone plays.

This can be a concern as we have broken through SMAs and are now dealing with 4 plays.

KVB · 06-09-21, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...This can be a concern as we have broken through SMAs and are now dealing with 4 plays...

Had a feeling this could happen. It may or may not be an issue. We could be looking at the shakeout before the breakout or we could be looking at the downturn we expected when I first pulled money out of the Fund.

It seems we are always testing some line or another on the charts...

Here's the recent summary...

Originally posted by KVB

Zona a trigger in the broader Contrarian Fund today.

The Backbone has lost 5 in a row, including 4 yesterday.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after yesterday's debacle...

952	8-Jun	PIT +178	-1
957		COL +170	-1
973		WAS +207	-1
976		TEX +130	-1

		Tue	-4

		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9	3.75
		Week 10	-0.9
		Mon	-1

		Total	-0.44

Here's the chart, we've seen this before in the range, including the SMA10 falling below the others...

At this point I want show a chart going further back and if you remember, I was making charts with red supports lines in case we fell through before.

But I want to focus a little more on the new SMA I put up, one I've been watching approach the others, the SMA 200. We are getting closer to that thin line in purple...

At least if it falls below support here there is a SMA 200 to hold it one more time.

I had a bad feeling about yesterday, it was such an attaractive market all over the place, something I mentioned in the daily play thread. I was kind of hoping we wouldn't get more than 3 triggers at once, to avoid the exposure. I almost posted that very thing yesterday.

Are we looking at one final shakeout before a breakout, or is the Head Shoulders reversal somehow still looming over us?

It can be tough to tell but it's reasonable to think a bit of the catalyst that we hoped would lead to a breakout may have been really just supporting or holding off the inevitable downtrend.

That catalyst being the NHL and NBA playoff volume.

It's also reasonable to think, as it often does, that we just saw a shakeout in an extremely attractive overall market on a Tuesday nonetheless, that could lead to the next uptrend and breakout.

We teeter on the brink, again, always testing something...

The outlook has not changed, but we are obviously, once again, in that territoty of final tests, of which the market has bounced back from a few times this season, including very early on before a large rise, before the Head and Shoulders mountain.

So there is a lot of reason to still be positive, after all, the Fund has lost 6 in a row, a bounce is in our nature here. Even if it's small, but a large one is certainly in the cards here.

Yet we still teeter, yet we still jump rope...

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jjgold · 06-09-21, 12:27 PM

Big dip in the trend line

I said Wednesday was a buy 2 days ago

KVB · 06-09-21, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Big dip in the trend line

I said Wednesday was a buy 2 days ago

Actually, you did call it. Can't quite sell with the MLB prices, but you hdd the right idea about waiting a couple of days that's for sure.

Now what?

Part of me really does feel like it's a shakeout before breakout but honestly that head and shoulders mountain, the NBA and NHL playoffs only keeping us in range and not breaking us out, could all still be factors here.

After all, it's been a good run since mid last year.